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Economics: Reform proposals will not pass in the current Congress but form the key piece of a longer-term political plan by AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

As analyzed in last week's Political Outlook, on February 5 President López Obrador unveiled a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reform proposals, ostensibly with the intention of having them discussed and approved in Congress. But as there is no possibility of these initiatives being pa...

Reflections of The International Scenario on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2024

When an economist with the stature of Larry Summers warns of the probability, albeit low (15%), that the Fed’s next interest rate movement might be further elevation instead of a reduction, as desired by the market, it is wise to pay attention to the reasons underpinning that comment. The main on...

An air pocket in the process of financial regulation
INDIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024

There was much hope for the "fintech revolution" in India, which could potentially break with the traditions of central planning and government-led control of products and processes. A series of factors have come together to diminish these possibilities. In recent weeks, developments in financial...

After the election: Greater prospects for continuity
INDONESIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Indonesia's general election took place on February 14, 2024. This election was accomplished peacefully throughout the country. I can say from first-hand experience that the general election even in remote areas was conducted peacefully. As can be learned from the media, the Quick Count resul...

Despite the deep contraction in the fourth quarter, the economy is recovering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Feb 2024

Despite the deep contraction in the fourth quarter, the economy is recovering GDP data for October–December 23 compared with the previous three months is not really relevant to the current economic environment. The fourth quarter was the deep crisis of the disaster on October 7, a sharp decline i...

Azerbaijan reappoints PM
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2024

On February 16 President Aliyev reaffirmed Ali Asadov's prime ministership. The Majilis (parliament) voted its approval of the nomination. Asadov has held this office since 2019. He is a member of the New Azerbaijan like Aliyev. He is 67 and does not overshadow the president in any way. Aliyev ha...

Post-election scenarios, a first take
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...

Ukraine withdrawing from Avdiivka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2024

On February 17 the new head of the Ukrainian Army announced the pullout is because the city is almost enveloped. This is Russia's greatest victory since Bakhmut in May 2023. The difference is that Russia suffered horrendous casualties in Bakhmut but not in Avdiivka.  General Syrsky said that the ...

Anti-corruption campaigner Navalny dies in jail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

On February 16 the news was announced with no official cause of death yet. A pro-Kremlin TV channel suggested it was a blood clot. A doctor who often examined Navalny said this was impossible to determine without an autopsy. He was being held in a remote northern prison.  Navalny had been well kn...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits recorded, Kuwait’s Assembly is dissolved, Egypt plans for Rafah refugees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The new OPEC+ quotas were implemented in Jan (UAE +1% m/m, Saudi flat, Kuwait & Oman -5%). * Egypt is building a compound for refugees as Israel prepares for an assault on Rafah, despite US concerns and mediation efforts; ...

Dancing on the edge of an abyss
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...

January saw the second biggest monthly peso depreciation in 17 years
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The peso depreciated by a powerful 2.36% in January. With the exception of July 2020, this was the highest monthly rate of depreciation since 2007. While there is a seasonal element, since January has frequently shown strong monthly exchange rate depreciation, there may also be factors associated...

Another downside inflation print; a rate cut is on the table
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Feb 2024

1. Inflation in January (0.0% m/m, 2.6% y/y, down from 3.0%) was at the low end of expectations; presently, we give a rate cut at the upcoming meeting a 55% probability. 2. Economic indicators were generally positive last week. 3. The trade deficit declined sharply in January as exports ha...

The Legislature will deal with issues in its relationship with the Executive Office, Flavio Dino takes a seat on the STF, and Bolsonaro calls for a demonstration on February 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2024

Next week, Congress returns to work at full pace and has issues to resolve with the Executive Office. Payroll tax relief, the Perse funding program for the events sector, and budget cuts are among the main sources of dissatisfaction in the relationship between the Legislature and the Executive Of...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

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