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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Shrinking trade deficit is shekel positive, at least until imports recover
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024
Trade deficit declines sharply In January, the trade deficit reached 1.4bn USD compared to 2.0bn in Dec 23, and is down 58% y/y with exports up 5.7% and imports down 20.3% (due to slowing imports of private consumption and raw materials). In the past three months (Nov-Jan), industrial exports hav...
Politics: 20 reform proposals foreshadow less democracy and more years of AMLO rule
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2024
On February 5, the anniversary of Mexico’s Constitution, which emerged from the Mexican Revolution, President López Obrador sent Congress a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reforms he says are aimed at rewriting articles introduced during the neoliberal or “neoporfirist” period. This ti...
The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...
Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets and reduces the probability of a rate cut in two weeks
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
1. Moody’s decision to place Israel on “negative outlook” (A2) resulted in higher bond yields and a weaker shekel. 2. January’s tax revenues surprised on the upside, resulting in a fiscal surplus. 3. Business sentiment continued to improve gradually in January as the economy recovers.
Disunity in the UniTeam
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Feb 2024
The Marcos Jr.-Sara Duterte alliance seemed fragile from the very beginning, but the fragility of the alliance is now made more apparent in at least two major developments recently. The first is the ICC (International Criminal Court) investigation of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte. In this, both M...
Chinese bank stops settlements with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024
On February 7 the news about Chouzhou Commercial Bank (CCB) was reported in the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti. CCB has been vital for Russia to pay for imports since 2022. CCB has reportedly informed clients that it will no longer facilitate payments. The CCB payments ended on SWIFT and Ch...
Tajikistan's CB lowers policy rate in a surprise move
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024
The Central Bank of Tajikistan lowered the policy rate by 50bpts to 9.50%. This is the first change since May last year when the policy rate was decreased by 100bpts to 11.0 percent. The accompanying statement (only in Tajik) consisted of a single paragraph arguing that the decision has been take...
Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024
Moody’s decision surprises markets The downgrade from A1 to A2 was largely expected by markets towards the end of last week. But the combination of a downgrade with a negative outlook was not expected (by the MoF as well). According to Moody’s, the negative outlook was due to the risk of escalati...
Not much new here
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024
With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...
President of the Republic resigned yesterday, with no immediate consequences for investors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024
President Katalin Novák announced her resignation yesterday. In addition, Judit Varga, former minister of justice and currently the leader of Fidesz' list for the upcoming European Parliament election resigned from all her positions, including a seat in Parliament, announcing her withdrawal from ...
US journalist interviews Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2024
On January 8 Tucker Carlson interviewed the Russian president. Carlson is a right wing TV presenter who worked for Fox News until 2023. Putin spoke for 30 minutes about his belief that Ukraine is not a real country. There was no doubt about Putin's sincerity when he traced Russia's history from i...
Active legislative week with positive results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024
After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...
GULF WEEKLY: Gulf tourism hits new records, Bahrain issues $2bn, Qatar-India LNG deal, no Gaza ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Feb 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Netanyahu called the Hamas ceasefire proposal “delusional” and is preparing to assault Rafah; this helped push oil back up to $82. * The US launched major strikes against Shia militias in Iraq, and Syria and continued to c...
Inflation surprised on the downside again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024
The headline CPI-inflation rate for January was reported at 0.7% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, defeating analysts' median expectation of 4.2% yoy (even more our forecast of 4.5% yoy), and representing a sharp drop from 5.5% yoy in December. This means that inflation is now within the MNB's 2-4% med...
The Federal Police has seized Bolsonaro’s passport, next week will be the Carnival holiday, and Lula visited Minas Gerais alongside Rodrigo Pacheco
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2024
Yesterday's Federal Police investigation into an attempted coup d'état had broad political repercussions. President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies were targeted in the investigation. Bolsonaro's passport was seized. Due to the Carnival holiday next week, decisions on the payroll tax exemption, the...