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A solution to the payroll tax exemption issue may be found this week, the president of the Parliamentary Agribusiness Front criticized the government, and Haddad is expected to maintain the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2024

According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and the government leader in the Senate, Randolfe Rodrigues, a solution will be found to the payroll tax exemption issue by the end of the week. But Haddad believes everything will depend on President Lula's approval. The president of the Par...

Government’s setback in Congress, Omnibus law returns to commissions
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...

EU foreign affairs high representative in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

On February 6 Josep Borrell paid his 4th visit since the war began. He said he was there to reaffirm the EU's commitment to Ukraine. All these declaration of absolute solidarity seem suspicious. If the EU is so obviously committed why is it impelled to repeat that mantra constantly? In March 2024...

Economic activity continues to recover
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

The CBS Business Survey for January points further recovery in economic activity. The net balance for current activity improved to +12 points from 7.4 points last month and -1.5 two months ago. Expectations for activity next month remained fairly weak at -1.75 (-2.13 last month) but employment ex...

Congress listed its priorities for the year, Lira stressed that the government needs to negotiate with Congress more, and Padilha will meet with Congress's leaders
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2024

Both Lira and Pacheco spoke about the need to regulate artificial intelligence. The regulation of Tax Reform was also mentioned. While Lira targeted his messages toward the Executive Office, Pacheco focused more on the Judiciary. Lira said that achievements such as the payroll tax exemption and P...

New data for December: poor industrial output, overcompensated by near-excellent retail sales figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

This morning, KSH has published mixed data for December. First the bad news: industrial output fell 0.3% mom, 8.9% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. The raw yoy figure was actually -13.7%, which seems disastrous, but there were two less working days in December 2023 than one year earlier....

Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...

Political negotiation in check and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The National Congress resumes its activities in a climate of tension with the Executive Office. As this is the week before Carnival, there are unlikely to be any important votes. In the economy, the highlights are the release of the Copom minutes and the IPCA for February. This week's Talking ...

Politics: More evidence of how organized crime, politicians, business enterprises and officials interact in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

In this issue we continue the analysis we began last week in these pages with Part One of our analysis of violence, elections and political control, addressing the interrelated questions of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the...

What Will the Selic Rate Be at the End of the Easing Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024

By raising aggregate demand, and hence the neutral interest rate, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the power of monetary policy. In 2023, the central government generated a primary deficit of R$ 230 billion, but if that result is harmonized with that determined by the Central Bank, which does n...

Economics: Immediate 2023 public finance results confirm there were no major departures from trends of the previous year
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The gradual but systematic deterioration of public finances continued to unfold over the course of 2023. The results came as no surprise, as the 2023 numbers had been anticipated throughout most of 2023. However, the way some components are trending is troubling: increasingly negative public bala...

Fires and pensions: When it doesn’t rain it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024 · 1 response

It is not uncommon for the Chilean summer to be fairly dry. The country’s central valley barely sees a drop of rain between the months of November and March. As the winters have got drier as well, summer wildfires have become more common. In recent days, several fires have appeared around the cou...

The forint is under moderate downward pressure today, fiscal policy, trade data and Sweden's NATO accession may be the factors behind this
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

With EURHUF at 385-386, with an apparent slight mobility in the upwardly direction, one could legitimately say that the forint is under some moderate pressure today. For sure, this is nothing dramatic, yet the explanation may be interesting. Anyway, this state of the local currency appears to jus...

January inflation: as bad as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2024

Consumer prices rose by 6.7%, m/m, in January, somewhat higher than the market consensus of 6.5%-6.6%, with the 12-month rate rising slightly to 64.9%, from 64.8% a month ago. Wage hikes, particularly the increase in the minimum wage, as well as the beginning-of-the year price/tax adjustments wer...

Congress resumes activity today, the government outlines its priorities for the year, and unions may reach an agreement to end civil servants' strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The legislative year is set to begin today at 3 p.m. in a formal session of the National Congress. According to the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, the government should detail its list of priorities for 2024 right after Carnival. The municipal elections in October will dr...

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