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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The government submitted a payroll tax bill to Congress, Pacheco will meet with Senator Barros to discuss the carbon credit market bill, and Lula is expected to meet with Senate leaders next week to improve their relationship
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Feb 2024

Yesterday, the government submitted a payroll tax bill to Congress. The text will replace the provisional measure (MP) that was issued in December last year and was poorly received among legislators. Pacheco also stated that he has a meeting in the next few days with Senator Leila Barros (PDT-DF)...

QATAR: An upsizing in the massive LNG expansion could drive further rating upgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2024

* The North Field expansion is being upsized by a quarter (16m t/yr of LNG). * A survey of North Field’s western quadrant has boosted estimated reserves by 14%. * The expansion could boost fiscal revenue by around 2% of GDP from 2030. * LNG demand is forecast to grow strongly in the coming dec...

Lula signed a provisional measure that revokes the resumption of the payroll tax, the House approved the urgent status for the bill on crypto, and the STF will adjudicate the INSS lifetime review today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2024

Yesterday, Lula signed a provisional measure that revokes the resumption of the payroll tax, but it has not yet been published in the Federal Official Gazette. The measure was negotiated with the National Congress. Also yesterday, the House approved the urgent status for the bill dealing with cry...

Zelensky in Saudi Arabia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2024

On February 27 the Ukrainian President met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who effectively rules Saudi Arabia due to incapacity of his father the king. The two leaders discussed the Ukraine War. Zelensky has a peace proposal that he put to the Saudis. It involves Ukrainians who were deported to...

Belarus parliamentary elections held
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2024

On February 26 all the results were announced. Turnout was 74%. Only pro-Lukashenko parties were allowed to run. These included the Communist Party and the Liberal Democrats. Several opposition parties were refused registration for the elections. Some people claim the government pressured them to...

SHARJAH: Sustainable bond goes to market, but questions remain about fiscal performance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 27 Feb 2024

Sharjah is in the market for a 12-year sustainable bond. It held investor meetings today (Tuesday 27th February) and the bond is likely to price on Wednesday. This is its second “sustainable” issuance, which is allocated to a broad range of both green and social spending (the investor's presentat...

Prospects looking up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Understanding Costa Rica’s unexpectedly good 2023 economic performance requires evaluating the main exogenous elements that departed from our basic assumptions for the country’s short-term economic outlook. This is important, primarily to rehearse a suitable forecast scenario. Those elements rela...

MNB rate-cutting accelerated, but only temporarily
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2024

The Monetary Council reduced the base rate by 100 ps, to 9%, today, accelerating the monthly pace of rate cuts from the previously standard 75 bps. However, shortly after the meeting, vice governor Virág said that this acceleration was only temporary, and the MNB's expectation regarding the mid-2...

The pace of activity in Congress is slow, Senators believe that Lula has paid too much attention to the House and not enough to the Senate, and the TSE will adjudicate cases regarding the upcoming municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2024

The combination of the lack of a concrete solution to the issue of congressional funds and issues such as the payroll tax exemption, in addition to the fact that the House is still discussing internally which party will lead which permanent committee of the House, considerably reduces the level o...

As murky as possible
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...

Politics: Pro-Xóchitl civic groups are revitalized by the latest pro-democracy protest with the general election campaign start just days away
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Hundreds of thousands of citizens took to the streets of Mexico City and well over a over a hundred other cities here and abroad on February 18 to protest against AMLO’s constitutional reform proposals designed to nullify Mexican democracy and keep the governing Morena party in power. It was the ...

An ambitious agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024

The government may submit a new MP and bill on payroll tax relief to Congress. Arthur Lira discusses with party leaders the presidencies of the Permanent Committees of the House. In the STF, the highlight is the adjudication of the INSS lifetime review. The IBGE publishes the 2023 GDP this week. ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2024

OVERVIEW Despite the Carnival holiday, the political tension has remained high in February, involving decisions by Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli; the crisis in the relations with Israel provoked by Lula; and the operation by the Federal Police to investigate the scope and responsibility f...

Economics: The outlook remains mixed judging by the latest data, with continuing challenges in manufacturing and domestic goods consumption
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024

Indicators released over the past month once again showed growth, but the latest GDP data confirmed that although the Mexican economy continues to expand, it decelerated in the last quarter and especially during December. Moreover, three quarters of manufacturing branches are contracting, and eve...

Analysts are divided on the rate-cutting prospects at tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2024

The stake for tomorrow's regular monthly rate-setting meeting is whether the Council opts for the standard 75 bps reduction of the currently 10% base rate, or it increases the speed slightly, to a 100 bps cut this time. Honestly, the difference is not that big from the point of view of long-term ...

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