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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP in 2023 and What Can Be Expected in 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2024

Last year, Brazil’s GDP expanded by 2.9%, basically the same pace as achieved in 2022 (3.0%), but with peculiar characteristics. Almost one-third of the result was due to the extraordinary performance of agriculture in the first quarter of 2023, which should not repeat this year. The stagnation o...

Russia holds Games of the Future
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

On March 3 the games closed in Kazan, Russia where they had taken place over 11 days. Kazan is the capital of Tatarstan. The games included 21 events: physical ones and digital games. There was a budget of USD 65 million, and it was claimed that 2,000 people from 107 countries took part. However,...

Sharp increase in wages of non-Israeli workers will be inflationary
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

Sharp increase in wages of non-Israeli workers will be inflationary In January, average wages among Israeli workers rose 5.9% y/y, moderating from 9.1% a month ago. In January, there was an increase of 0.6% in the number of employee posts, apparently at low wage levels (which lowered the total av...

Politics: Continuing US leaks about alleged narco money in AMLO’s campaigns heighten tensions and raise more questions
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2024

An article in the February 20 issue of The New York Times, under the byline of the paper’s chief correspondent in Mexico, revealed the existence of an informal investigation by officials from an unspecified US government agency of allegations of donations by drug cartel leaders to AMLO's successf...

Nods to opposing sectors and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2024

President Lula will meet with party leaders in the Senate. Mayors demonstrate in Brasília in defense of payroll tax relief for municipalities. The BC outlines its regulatory priorities for 2024. This week's Talking Points: * After crises, the União Brasil has new leaders. * ...

Economics: Moody’s downgrades as Pemex 2023 results show further deterioration of its performance and balance sheet
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Pemex’s 2023 results showed slight upticks in some operating numbers but nothing that could minimize the extent to which its financial indicators continued to fuel doubts as to the company's medium-term viability. This point was underscored by just the latest in a long stream of ratings and outlo...

Patience and trust, with sticks and carrots
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Friday night´s “Address to the Nation”, at the opening session of the Congress, was quite insightful for an event that is often used by presidents merely to praise their own mandates. Milei presented a broad-based overview of his immediate and medium-term political goals. All of these are, in gen...

Poor print, a very tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 4.5% in February, with the 12-month CPI inflation rising visibly to 67.1%, y/y, from 64.9% in January. Producer price inflation was 3.7%, m/m, with the 12-month PPI-rate also rising to 47.3% in February, from 44.2% in the previous month. The slippage...

BSP not too anxious to unhinge monetary policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2024

In a quote that could very well apply to the BSP’s inflation management, BSP Governor Eli Remolona was quoted having declared that “we want to be prepared for the dangers of rosy scenarios” when the central bank’s Financial Stability Report was rolled out to the public three weeks ago, February 1...

Lula will meet with Senate leaders this week to improve their relationship, mayors will hold a demonstration in Brasilia in defense of payroll tax reduction, and the CCJ is expected to discuss the new Electoral Code
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2024

On Tuesday, March 5, President Lula will meet with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and party leaders. The objective of the meeting is to improve the relationship between the Executive Office and the National Congress. On Wednesday, March 6, the National Confederation of Mun...

Monetary caution due to elevated uncertainty
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Mar 2024

1. Rates remained stable last week due to elevated uncertainty, both geo-political and fiscal. 2. Private consumption has rebounded since the initial impact of the war and is currently above pre-war levels. 3. The shekel continued to appreciate in expectation of an imminent cease-fire, se...

When the music's over
CHILE · Report · 04 Mar 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank took a significant step in January, by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 100bp and adjusting its baseline scenario to a more accelerated convergence towards the neutral level. The new timeline for the TPM's convergence to its neutral level is set for the second half of 2...

Cha-Cha as an economic risk
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2024

In our previous report dated February 12, 2024, we raised the brewing issue of a possible break up in the UniTeam of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice-President Sara Duterte. The cracks were beginning to be more apparent first in the International Criminal Court (ICC) involving the Vice-Pres...

March spells survival of the fittest
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2024

The politics author hereby presents his preliminary predictions for local elections. In a nutshell, things are not looking good for President Erdogan at the moment. Ankara may have already slipped out of his grasp, while AKP candidate Kurum’s chances in Istanbul are no more than 50% in his view. ...

Monetary caution due to elevated uncertainty
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2024

The BoI preferred to err on the side of caution: The rate hold decision last week was not a major surprise as expectations were split. We think the major factors contributing to this decision were: the postponement of fiscal approval, shekel volatility following the Moody’s downgrade, and the pos...

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