Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Oct 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

OVERVIEW

LULA AND THE EFFECTS OF HIS “BODY OF WORK” ON THE ELECTIONS

Several factors have triggered a pendulum movement in expectations for next year’s presidential elections. The right suffered a major setback with Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attempted coup d’état and four other crimes. According to the Supreme Court’s First Panel, the sentence must initially be served in a closed regime, but the defense may eventually succeed in requesting house arrest. The conviction was handed down with four votes in favor and one against, from Justice Luiz Fux, which could open the door to a possible annulment on procedural grounds, exactly as happened with Lula’s imprisonment.

Tarcísio Freitas, who had performed very well in his first appearances as a presidential candidate, became entangled in his loyalty to the “captain” and stumbled at the start. The Bolsonaro clan now fights solely for the family’s political survival, without a strategic vision to back the most competitive candidate against Lula. Tarcísio may recover, especially if he starts defending a solid program of institutional and economic reconstruction for the country, provided that such a stance does not provoke the ire and opposition of the clan. Otherwise, he will have to settle for a second term as governor of São Paulo. The other pre-candidates — Zema, Ratinho, Caiado, and Leite — came out unscathed and remain in the running. By early next year, each is expected to present their projects for the country, as so far they have relied comfortably on the achievements and good administration in their states. However, ruling a country requires a far more complex strategy to unlock growth and restore democratic institutions, undermined by the ideological war between left and right in recent years.

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