Politics: USMCA review and the 2027 midterm elections are key to defining Sheinbaum’s second year in office
Last week we presented an initial balance sheet of the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in terms of economic performance and social indicators. In this issue of the Political Outlook, we will consider the main political issues, their ramifications and possible scenarios for her second year in office.
The central points in the coming period revolve around the review and possible adjustments to or renegotiation of the USMCA, which is key to economic growth and stability, and the 2027 midterm elections, which will determine whether the 4T project will continue unabated. The 4T has clearly consolidated its political hegemony and regime through control of the executive and legislative branches. Now, with this past June’s judicial election, control of the judicial branch is all but assured, as well. The 4T currently permeates all aspects of government functioning. This strategy has not only weakened the already discredited opposition political parties but has also led to an expansion and intensification of the authoritarian trends of the Morena project and presidential administration. Currently in the hopper is a new version of the Electoral Reform, which will be key to ensuring the continuity of the 4T in power through guaranteed 2/3 qualified majorities in both houses of Congress.
As a possible ray of hope in an otherwise disconcerting panorama, government critics and the opposition are hoping for and betting on a distancing between Claudia Sheinbaum and AMLO. The President clearly has her own style and priorities, and on security she has forged a new policy, discarding the ineffective “hugs not bullets” line of her predecessor. Yet Sheinbaum repeatedly claims the mantle of continuity with AMLO’s project and moreover seeks to preserve Morena’s internal unity to guarantee electoral victories in 2027 and 2030.
What could overturn this could be the possible need for Sheinbaum to decisively cut ties with Morena politicians and public officials linked to organized crime. This could stem from the need to prevent desertions by dissatisfied voters given continued public corruption-related scandals and the necessity to remain in Washington’s good graces. In this context Sheinbaum will continue to manage and look for a solution on issues inherited from AMLO that remain unresolved. She will have to forcefully address topics such as economic growth with public finance stability, security, justice, and corruption, while being on guard against her internal and external detractors.
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