GULF WEEKLY: Saudi revises up deficit projection, Kuwait and Bahrain issue bonds, Trump announces Gaza plan and pledges to defend Qatar

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Oct 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent crude dropped by -9% to $64, a four-month low, as another OPEC+ hike is expected.
* Saudi Arabia estimates its fiscal deficit will be -5.3% of GDP this year, more than double the budget.
* Its fiscal projections see the deficit narrowing to an average of -2.6% of GDP in 2026-28.
* The Saudi current account deficit reached -3.8% of GDP in Q2, a five-year high. New FDI declined.
* PIF is the lead investor in the largest-ever leveraged buyout, at $55bn, of US video games firm EA.
* The UAE’s PMI rose to a seven-month high in September.
* Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP growth accelerated to 6.6% in Q2, led by finance, real estate and construction.
* OpenAI’s CEO visited the UAE president, but Nvidia chip deliveries remain held up by US red tape.
* Trump signed an order pledging to defend Qatar and got Netanyahu to apologize to the PM.
* Kuwait sold $11.25bn in 3-10 year bonds at tight spreads, given strong global demand.
* More US financial firms may set up offices in Kuwait, including Goldman Sachs.
* Oman’s tourist numbers were up 6% y/y in August, ending a trend of decline so far this year.
* S&P affirmed Oman and still sees a narrow fiscal surplus on average in 2025-28, despite weaker oil.
* Bahrain issued $2.5bn in 8-year sukuk and 12-year bonds on tighter spreads than its May issuance.
* Trump announced a Gaza peace plan that requires Hamas to release hostages and disarm first.
* The assault on Gaza City intensified, and Israel said civilians remaining will be treated as terrorists.
* Databank updates: Fiscal (Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi); Abu Dhabi GDP; Saudi BoP; Bahrain inflation; monthly data

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