Economics: The General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025-2026 retain the optimism of previous years
As has become customary, the government’s latest policy pre-criteria are marked by excess optimism. The Pre-General Economic Policy Criteria text the Ministry of Finance sent Congress last week, which ushers in the budgeting process of Federal Public Administration entities, include revised macroeconomic framework and public finance estimates for 2025 while introducing both projections and priority programs for 2026.
Subject to multiple variations and challenges in the national and international environment, this point of reference for the country’s biannual economic policy contains GDP growth projections that are more than four times greater than the market consensus for 2025, and three to five times greater than our own forecast for 2026. The macroeconomic framework for next year shows less of a gap relative to the numbers of independent analysts, although it lowballs the average price of Mexican crude by more than a dollar per barrel than the price specialized agencies are anticipating.
But public finances remain a real point of concern. The ministry is optimistic in its public deficit projections for this year. Furthermore, there are reasonable doubts as to the administration’s ability to make good on its commitment to adjust public sector finances during these two years in the context of slowing economic activity, the uncertainty engulfing investment, consumption and international trade, and the government’s focus on continuing to expand costly cash-transfer programs and other pet projects.
In this week’s Economic outlook we unpack the pre-criteria data. In the Economic Indicators section, we provide the latest cyclical, private consumption and fixed investment indicators, along with the CCI numbers showing another significant erosion of consumer confidence.
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