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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consequences of Economic Activity on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Mar 2024

This week, the COPOM is expected to reduce the SELIC rate by a further 50 basis points to 10.75% and maintain the forward guidance for further cuts of the same size. In 2023, service prices were marked by disinflation, but there are risks to the continuity of this process due to the ongoing stron...

Economics: Strong wage growth continues even as hiring slows in tandem with the economy
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Job growth remains strong even as it has slowed in recent months, primarily in a stalling manufacturing sector, but even there and throughout the economy, wage growth remains robust. Hiring continues to be much more pronounced in the formal rather than informal sector even three years after a 202...

Industrial growth numbers look good, supported by an additional working day in February
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, the country’s industrial growth numbers looked strong – both in the case of mining and manufacturing segments. It occurred, not least, due to a leap year and an additional working day in February. The mining segment grew by 3.6% y-o-y i...

Finally, the C-word
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024 · 1 response

On Friday, March 15, in a speech aimed to invigorate his supporters, out of the blue, President Petro came out with a proposal everyone feared since he ran for president; namely, aiming to change the constitution via a Constitutional Assembly (CA). He finally recurred to the C-word. In his own wo...

Government re-assessment and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2024

President Lula holds the first ministerial meeting of 2024. In the STF, the highlight is the judgment on the review of pensions. The government publishes a revenue and expenditure report for the first two months of the year. The Central Bank will decide on the basic interest rate. This week's ...

Politics: With only marginal shifts in GEA-ISA’s latest presidential race poll, Xóchitl faces major challenges in the final 10 weeks
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024

President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, and opposition presidential nominee Xóchitl Gálvez recouped three points of voting intentions, according to the latest GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters. Mexico was only 24 hours into the g...

Chile: Progressive policy creep
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

It seems that Boric has stopped trying to appeal to the center. His popularity—forever stuck in the 25-30% range—is unlikely to rise, or fall. Looking ahead, Boric told his cabinet, “In the remaining two years of government, (we need) not to make promises, (but) to fulfill them.” Boric, like most...

Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 today, three bills submitted by the government should be put to a vote this week, and the STF should analyze the lifetime review of the INSS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2024

This morning President Lula meets with his ministerial team. Recent polls show the deterioration of the President's image and the ratings of his government. Three bills from the Executive Office with constitutional urgent status begin to block the agenda of the House tomorrow. On Wednesday, March...

CCA Highlights: Armenia approaches neutral rate, Georgia makes a bold rate cut, Uzbekistan re-introduces limits on electricity consumption
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Mar 2024

We briefly comment on key macro and political events in the CCA space: Armenia: Deflation steepens in Feb Armenia: Central Bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.50 percent Armenia: CB Governor sees policy rate approaching neutral level Armenia: Budget posts surplus in Jan Armenia: Net ...

Abinader marches confidently toward re-election, amid a weak and divided opposition
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 18 Mar 2024

The new year got off to a good start, with economic activity growing 4.6% y/y in January, similar to the 4.7% y/y growth of December 2023. Inflation also performed well, declining for the second consecutive month, to 3.3% y/y in February. The monetary policy rate has remained unchanged since D...

Rate cut far from certain despite slowing inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Mar 2024

1. Despite inflation moderation in February, a rate cut in April is far from assured. 2. We are forecasting inflation of 3.2% in the NTM due to an expansionary fiscal policy, higher shipping costs, and an expected acceleration in rental prices. 3. The current account surplus has improved bu...

Philippines: Jobs trend slightly reverses course
PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Mar 2024

The Philippines’ employment rate increased slightly, to 95.5 percent in January 2024 from the 95.2 percent posted in January of the previous year. The rate was, however, lower than the 96.9 percent employment rate recorded in December 2023. Some seasonality is definitely involved here. Consider...

Putin wins record vote in dubious election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

As we predicted, Putin won a higher share of the vote than ever before: 87%. He expressed his gratitude to those who voted and took the opportunity to praise Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. He said the war explained the high turnout, which was a record breaking 70%. The runner up was the co...

Next rate decision will hinge mostly on the direction of the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

Inflation continued to moderate in February Inflation slowed to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, and core to 2.2% from 2.4%. The main item moderating inflation was housing rental prices which decelerated to 2.0% y/y from 3.0% last month. Other items tended to surprise on the upside, both goods and services. I...

It's all about the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2024

The races in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir turned largely static during the week, while new poll data from Anatolia was full of surprises. The politics author is confident in calling Ankara and Izmir for CHP incumbents, while Imamoglu stands a good chance to edge out AKP’s Kurum in Istanbul. Yet,...

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