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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lula underwent surgery last night and is in the ICU, Braga submitted his report on Tax Reform, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will hold confirmation hearings for the appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2024

President Lula underwent surgery in São Paulo on Monday night, December 9, after experiencing headaches. The surgery went well, and Lula is now being monitored in an ICU bed. This development could potentially impact Congress’s agenda. Yesterday, Senator Eduardo Braga released his report on the b...

CPI-inflation accelerated in November, but core inflation data still looks quite favorable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The headline rate of CPI-inflation rose to 3.7% yoy in November, from 3.2% yoy in the previous month, on a 0.5% increase in the CPI in November alone. However, core inflation was only 0.3% mom, 4.4% yoy, the latter moving marginally downwards, from 4.5% yoy in October. The headline rate rose esse...

The fiscal package will likely undergo changes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The Senate may conclude the vote on a bill regulating the Tax Reform. The House is also reviewing three appointments for the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the House is focusing on analyzing bills within the government’s fiscal adjustment package, which is expected to have a fiscal impact of R$70 billi...

The federal budget deficit is near zero in 11M24 but will soar in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2024

The Finance Ministry reported that in 11M24, federal budget revenues reached nearly R32.7 and moved steadily toward the annual target of R36.1 trln last month. In November alone, they attained almost R3.5 trln. Both the oil-and-gas (O&G) and the non-O&G revenues exceeded the 11M23 level by about ...

Economics: Questions raised about the feasibility of strategic plans for the energy sector
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024

The strategic plans presented by the Federal Government for both Pemex and CFE are insufficient to deal with the structural challenges they face. Pemex is plagued by significant accumulated losses caused by segments such as its Transformación Industrial subsidiary, for which no specific measures ...

The Battle of Expectations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024

Since the last Copom meeting, the inflationary outlook has worsened due to deteriorating inflation expectations, currency depreciation, and the persistence of strong economic activity and labor market, stressing the output gap. As a result, BCB’s inflation forecast for the relevant monetary polic...

This is the second-to-last week of the legislative year, Braga is looking to reduce resistance to his text in the House, and the Copom will meet for the last time this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2024

The second-to-last week of activity in the National Congress comes with a packed agenda. Braga is negotiating with the Lower House to make adjustments to the text, aiming to reduce resistance to the changes introduced by the Senate and ensure the vote is finalized this year. To meet this timeline...

Politics: Sheinbaum moves to address Trump’s threats to Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024

Even before taking office, US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies toward Mexico indicate a hard-core stance that could potentially inflict considerable harm on the country’s economy. While not coming as a surprise given his past performance and the promises made to his base during the recent ...

Cautious geopolitical optimism fuels markets
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Dec 2024

1. Cautious geopolitical optimism continues to fuel Israeli markets. 2. The business sector is reporting a modest acceleration in activity. 3. Low inflation expectations following January’s CPI print will support a rate cut in April 2025 and three cuts in all of 2025.

Israel’s risk premium continues to decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: There has been some good news on several fronts, but uncertainty remains elevated. Firstly, the ceasefire in the North is holding up, nearly two weeks after implementation. Secondly, ceasefire negotiations appear to be more tangible with Hamas (although we have been there before). Th...

Wow! Fitch Ratings has raised to Stable from Negative the outlook on its BBB rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Dec 2024

This rating action was exactly the opposite of what Moody's implemented just one week ago. We are happy, of course, but also close to being entirely speechless. In hindsight, it is most likely that Fitch raised its outlook now because Hungary had been on negative outlook for almost two years, whi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Did Georgian Dream push its luck by suspending EU accession talks?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024

Just as the post-election environment was getting calmer and the opposition looked dejected and lost, the new government (and Georgian Dream) decided to let the genie out of the bottle by springing the surprise decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028. This only invigorated the oppositio...

Policy choice and monetary expansion behind the tenge’s recent unintended (albeit healthy) correction
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Dec 2024

Earlier this week, the Ministry of Finance published the 11M24 statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow and expenditures. The ministry mentioned that since the beginning of the year, the fund’s assets grew from KZT29.854 trln as of January 1 to KZT33.261 trln as of December 1. It means that...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ slows its taper, PMIs surge in KSA and Kuwait, Syrian rebels capture Aleppo and Hama
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ reduced 2025 taper plans by 1m b/d and extended cuts into 2026, but the market shrugged. * Participating GCC states will increase output in 2025 by a third of what was previously planned. * Gulf leaders met in Kuwai...

The Joint Budget Committee will meet to review the 2025 Budget, Braga should submit his report to the CCJ on Monday, and the Copom will hold its final meeting of the year to decide on the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2024

This morning, the Joint Budget Committee will meet to review the Revenue Report and the Preliminary Opinion on the 2025 Budget. The Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) has scheduled for this Monday the analysis of the supplementary bill (PLP 68/24) that regulates Tax Reform (Constit...

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