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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

We see more volatility and more risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2024

We have revised our inflation and exchange rate projections down for this year. We keep our projections for 2025 while we reassess the development of the political crisis that surfaced with the July 28 elections. We think the government will stay its economic policy course, aimed at reducing i...

The current account turns slightly negative in July, GDP growth slows in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024

The Central bank reported that the Current account surplus amounted to $39.7 bln, i.e., slightly lower than in 1H24 as in July alone, it turned slightly negative (-$0.5 bln). It looks as though the fluctuation in oil prices was the main reason for that (apart from a few other factors). At the beg...

Fitch lowers Israel's rating, trade data points to expansion
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024

Fitch lowered Israel’s sovereign rating from A+ negative outlook to A with a negative outlook. The main rationale is the elevated geopolitical risks including prolonged warfare into 2025 and possibly an escalation on other fronts. Fitch expects the fiscal deficit to reach 7.8% this year and 4.6% ...

BSP: Listening to the sirens' song this week?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Aug 2024

In our view, the BSP was right in its decision to keep its policy rates steady despite the preponderance of downside risks to inflation at its June 2024 policy meeting. If the BSP had eased monetary policy two months ago, its decision would have been awkward in the face of the 4.4% July inflation...

The environmental career public servants ended their strike, the House approved an urgent status request for the IBS Management Committee bill, and the Senate’s CAE holds a public hearing on Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2024

The environmental career public servants (Ibama, ICMBio, MMA) officially accepted the government's proposal yesterday and ended their strike. As of today (August 13), all employees will return to work. Yesterday, the House approved an urgent status request for the bill that regulates the IBS Mana...

Economics: Pemex’s financial situation continued to deteriorate through the second quarter
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2024

Pemex's latest financial results, the last we can expect from current management, were rolled out with the CEO's customary optimistic flair even as the report shows a profound deterioration of its indicators through the first half of 2024, after recording systematic reductions in the company's de...

Negotiation of state debt will yield political dividends and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasília. Both the House and the Senate will engage in a week of concentrated voting efforts. Deputies may analyze the second bill that deals with the Tax Reform (Management Committee). Roberto Campos Neto will participate in a hearing in the House. Senators will try t...

China’s report card
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Aug 2024

In the first half of 2024 China faced significant challenges and some important decisions. How did it do? Here, we provide a quick report card on China’s successes and failures in navigating a difficult environment.

The Gap Between Intention and Action
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) minutes state that the Central Bank is prepared to hike interest rates if necessary to meet the inflation target. However, the path of interest rates in light of deteriorating expectations, the increase in the neutral real interest rate estimate, and a tighte...

Politics: Sheinbaum shackled by the long shadow of AMLO’s legacy
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2024

A complex yet muted political drama is playing out with less than two months to go before Claudia Sheinbaum becomes president. As with any incoming executive, her prospects for tackling the biggest and most pressing problems facing the country will depend on her ability to define her own agenda, ...

SA Government of National Unity (GNU): Learning to work with opposing policies and ideologies
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Aug 2024

During the first quarter of government, the South African political landscape and discourses on governance and policies have changed a great deal. Eleven political parties, with the ANC as the largest with 40.2% electoral support and the DA with 21.8% as the second largest, have formed a grand co...

The House may vote on the Tax Reform regulation bill, the Senate may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill, and the CCJ may analyze the PEC on the Central Bank’s autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2024

The Lower House and the Senate will hold a week of concentrated legislative sessions. The House is attempting to vote on the second bill related to the regulation of the Tax Reform this week, which deals with the Management Committee (Complementary Bill No. 108/24). The Senate may vote on the bil...

Escalation tension declines somewhat, and negotiations to be renewed
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Aug 2024

1. Renewed cautious optimism regarding a ceasefire and lack of escalation has strengthened the shekel and lowered bond spreads. 2. The fiscal deficit continues to climb higher despite robust tax revenues. 3. Business activity in July remained steady but below pre-war levels.

Fiscal accounts for the semester, Chapman’s financial proposals and their implications, Mulino’s announcements, and important appointments to come
PANAMA · Report · 12 Aug 2024 · 1 response

The fiscal accounts for the first semester, published last week, align with our projections for a Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) deficit close to 8% of semiannual GDP according to our estimates, reaching 3.96% of the projected GDP for the entire year. Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapm...

Central Asian presidents' summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2024

On August 8 the presidents of the five former Soviet republics met in Astana. The President of Azerbaijan was also invited even though his country is not a member of this informal Central Asian bloc. This is the sixth annual consultative meeting of the presidents. It is about cooperation. However...

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