The second Israel-Iran war: the risks of a prolonged confrontation

ISRAEL - In Brief 03 Mar 2026 by Sani Ziv

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After three days of war, several key facts are beginning to emerge: The Israeli-U.S. opening move appears to be a significant operational success. The combination of prior intelligence and highly precise strikes by both countries resulted in the targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. Military and strategic sites associated with the regime continue to be struck, including elements of Iran’s missile-launch infrastructure. However, for now, Iran shows no indication of agreeing to a rapid capitulation. Following the heavy initial blow, Tehran appears determined to impose costs on its opponents through attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in the region, and Gulf states. The confrontation is gradually evolving into a broader regional conflict, including attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. Ehud Yaari, a senior Israeli commentator, pointed to signs of an internal power struggle in Tehran, noting that within hours Iran appeared to reverse its war management policy. Conflicting messages regarding negotiations with the United States, the role of regional proxies, and attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure point to deep disagreements among the surviving senior officials, particularly between the political leadership and the Revolutionary Guards. At this stage, it will be necessary to wait and see how developments unfold within the Iranian system, especially following the selection of a new leader to succeed Khamenei. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite militia in Lebanon, enters the war, albeit on a limited scale so far, marked by rocket fire toward northern Israel. Israel responded with extensive strikes and appeared to be waiting for an opportunity...