Shadow over Ararat: Strikes on Iran reveal Armenia's strategic vulnerability

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - In Brief 02 Mar 2026 by Ivan Tchakarov

---

The aftershocks of the latest round of missile strikes in Iran have been quick to reverberate across the South Caucasus, raising fresh questions about the security, trade routes, and economic resiliency of Armenia. Instability on Armenia’s southern border could rapidly evolve into a structural challenge that Yerevan can easily handle. What is particularly interesting is that Armenia has been (almost) dead silent on the events, which is major shift from its reaction last Jun when it categorically condemned the "one-sided attack on Iran". There have been no condolences offered on the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, smth that Azerbaijan lost no time to offer. Yerevan's response, or rather the lack thereof, is surprising, especially considering that Armenia and Iran have become strategic partners with increasingly close relations, especially after the 2020 Second Karabakh War. It was an year ago that the Iranian ambassador to Armenia announced that the two countries are developing a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which will be signed by the leaders of both countries.Even Georgia expressed condolences to the Iranian people, including the Supreme Leader, while also offering solidarity with the "friendly Jewish people" and the Gulf Arab countries with which Georgia has a "distinguished partnership". I studied in detail the economic linkages between the South Caucasian countries and Iran here, underlying as a key conclusion that Iran's economic importance for Armenia has risen significantly in recent years. Most meaningfully, about 30% of Armenia’s international trade now routes through Iran, a significant increase from 18% in 2020. A disruption of the southern...