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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 May 2024

May 2 Parliament: The Senate has ratified the protocol on amendments to the agreement (signed in 2013) between the governments of Kazakhstan and Russia on the transit of Russian oil to China via Kazakhstan. Amendments assumed the extension of the agreement for another ten years with a ten-percent...

The Senate approved the bill that suspends Rio Grande do Sul’s federal debt payment plan, the text on municipalities' payroll tax exemption is ready, and the Joint Budget Committee intends to vote on the LDO by July 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2024

Yesterday, May 15, the Senate plenary approved PLP 85/2024, which authorizes the suspension of Rio Grande do Sul's debt for three years. The bill was presented on Monday, May 13, by the federal government. According to Senator Efraim Filho (União Brasil/PB), the text on municipalities' payroll ta...

US speeding up military aid to Ukraine as Russia approaches Kharkiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2024

On May 15 the US Secretary of State Blinken made the announcement in Kyiv. The aid is part of the USD 61 billion aid package voted through in April 2024. The fast-tracked aid includes air defense, which is Ukraine's top priority. Blinken met ordinary Ukrainians as well as the president in Kyiv. T...

Rate stability expected due to high inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2024

April’s CPI surprises on the upside Inflation in April was up 0.8% (consensus and my forecast were at 0.6%) and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% last month. Core inflation accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, but excluding government measures (cigarette tax hike), core inflation was up only 2.1%. ...

The South African economy in a precarious state pre-elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 May 2024

• South African growth: The South African economy’s slowdown continued in 2023 from 2021’s robust recovery – economic expansion in 2023 was just under a third of the growth rate registered in the preceding year. Although it had moderated by the end of the year, load-shedding reached its peak in 2...

Brief 2: Felipe Chapman will be the new Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF)
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 May 2024

The first appointments of the economic team of President-elect José Raúl Mulino (JRM) were announced today. Felipe Chapman (56) will be the next Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF). Chapman earned a BA in Economics from Brown University and an MBA from INCAE Business School. He is the president...

Jean Paul Prates was fired from Petrobras, the Working Group on Tax Reform regulation may be announced today, and the Senate may vote on the bill that suspends Rio Grande do Sul’s federal debt payment plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2024

After several months of friction and disagreements, Jean Paul Prates has been fired from Petrobras. This is a victory for the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, who publicly argued with Jean Paul Prates. According to the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the members of t...

COPOM Watch: "Make me chaste, but not yet.”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2024

The Minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, released today, carry even greater importance than usual, as they were expected to provide the motives behind the minority vote for a stronger reduction of the benchmark Selic rate, namely 0.50 pp, in opposition to the majority de...

Brief 1: the May 5 official results
PANAMA · In Brief · 14 May 2024

The official results gave Mulino the victory in a winner-takes-all contest José Raúl Mulino, 64, was proclaimed president-elect on Thursday, May 9. with 33.4% of the valid votes in an election in which a record 77.6% of registered voters participated. The winning alliance was composed of the Real...

New single scenario given GL 44a
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 May 2024

For the remainder of 2024, we present a single scenario now, one that reflects General License 44a (GL 44A) and the current economic policy framework. Inflation in this scenario decelerates to 70 percent from last year’s 190 percent, and the exchange rate moves up 36 percent to close 2024 at 53.3...

Georgia approves foreign agent law
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 May 2024

On May 14 parliament overwhelmingly passed the bill after months of wrangling. Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated against it since April 2024. The police have sometimes used force against them. President Zurabashvili vowed to veto the bill but admits her veto will probably be overridde...

The CNI defended the approval of the bill that taxes international purchases, mayors continue to pressure for payroll tax relief, and Lira said the House should approve Rio Grande do Sul’s federal debt relief as soon as possible
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2024

Yesterday, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) defended the approval of the bill that provides for the end of tax exemptions on international purchases of up to US$50. This measure was included in the bill that creates the Green Mobility and Innovation Program (Mover) that is being analy...

Economics: An analysis of the main economic proposals put forward by the two leading presidential candidates
MEXICO · Report · 14 May 2024

The two leading presidential candidates on the ballot this June 2, Claudia Sheinbaum for Morena and Xóchitl Gálvez for the Broad Front for Mexico, have raised numerous economic proposals, both in the platforms they presented at the beginning of the campaign, as well as in multiple events and inte...

The risk of opportunism and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance negotiates with mayors on the payroll tax relief issue. The STF may ratify the agreement signed last week with the 17 sectors of the economy benefiting from the exemption. In the market, the minutes of the Copom meeting that reduced the interest rate to 10.50% should be pu...

Scope and Consequences of the Dissent in the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 May 2024

The statement issued after the last COPOM meeting displayed a hawkish tone in evaluating both the international and domestic scenarios, recognizing that the dynamism of activity and the labor market in Brazil is stronger than expected. In addition to this, the members unanimously stated that the ...

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