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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 21 -
Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 15
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Hungary databank Aug 19
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 21
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Aug 21
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Rates lowered, statement softened
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2025
The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by another 250 bps to 45% today (see chart), in line with expectations. There were not a whole lot of noteworthy changes in the statement, except for, importantly, the removal of detailed references to the monthly pace of inflation and inflati...
NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...
Trump slaps Putin in the face with a proposal to get a favor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
That’s a nice way to kick off negotiations. Whether intentionally or not, Donald Trump’s post landed a direct blow to the very core of Russist ideology. For years, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cultivated a "victory cult" in Russian society, glorifying May 9th, Victory Day, and claiming public...
Politics: Fragile ceasefires and emerging power realignments in the Middle East
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jan 2025
This is the first of a series of monthly reports that will focus on Israel’s domestic politics, as well as regional politics as they impact Israel. - Trump’s pressures were key in securing the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza. Despite its continued hope to annihilate Hamas, Israel is likely to ...
Triple-digit inflation risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Jan 2025
Uncertainty as to politics and oil in 2025 will cause exchange rates and consumer prices to accelerate. We present two scenarios for 2025. Both assume that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will maintain a controlled crawling peg for the official exchange rate and leverage the increased dema...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Jan 2025
Jan 10 UN: The organization expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, it expects 4.8% annual growth in 2025-2026. National railways: The cargo turnover of the national railway carrier (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy) grew by 1.1% y-o-y in 2024. Jan 14 NBK: Kazakhstan's international reserves decre...
Mr. Trump and the Panama Canal: An “external shock” and the necessity of a three-phase strategy for Panama
PANAMA · Report · 21 Jan 2025
Panama has been in the international economic and political spotlight in recent weeks, particularly following President Donald Trump’s inaugural address on January 20: “We are going to take back the Canal that was unfairly taken from us by Panama and which imposes unjustly high tolls.” This re...
Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2025 · 1 response
President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time fra...
Kazakhstan macro: The unexpectedly high rate of economic growth in 4Q24 is unlikely to persist in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jan 2025
In a few days, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance will publish budgetary statistics for the entire year 2024, but it looks as though spending soared in December. It already started accelerating in October-November. We mentioned earlier that apart from the generous budgetary stimulus, expanding hous...
Federal budget deficit in December widened as expected, while the current account unexpectedly turned red
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2024, as a whole, the federal budget was in deficit of about RUB3.5 trln, which should be below 1.8% of GDP, i.e., a mere percentage of GDP. Revenues and expenditures looked close to what the government targeted, albeit actual revenues appeared below the a...
The problem of the exchange rate
INDIA · Report · 21 Jan 2025
In late 2022, the INR moved to a highly managed exchange rate regime, with low volatility and (most likely) an attempt at a strong rupee. Such actions are inconsistent with the new inflation-targeting regime. They are likely to have reflected the consensus between the previous RBI governor and th...
2026 elections rising to the fore; economy accelerated at end-2024; BCRP to end its easing cycle
PERU · Report · 21 Jan 2025
We discuss three topics in this report. First, we argue that politics is changing gears, with the focus turning to the 2026 election campaign. Second, we discuss economic performance. We suggest that, although the economy accelerated through November, economic cooling began in December, and we ex...
Politics: Trump’s threats cast a shadow over the Mexican outlook
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025
Supporters of Claudia Sheinbaum jammed Mexico City’s Zocalo square on January 12th for a rally to mark her 100 days in office. The new President’s speech centered on several key points: continuity with AMLO’s project and policies and a rejection of a return to the neoliberal past; major achieveme...
Economics: Signs of progress in Sheinbaum’s Plan Mexico but excessive optimism and other faults of past years continue to predominate
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025
Plan Mexico: a National Strategy for Industrialization and Shared Prosperity, which the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled on January 13, clearly marks a step in the right direction in terms of planning. Complete with a mission and goals for 2030, actions for January-April 202...
Israel's unemployment hits historic low in December 2024 amid tight labor market; easing expected in 2025
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jan 2025
In December 2024, Israel's official unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% from 2.7% in November (seasonally adjusted). The broader measure of unemployment, which includes individuals temporarily out of work due to the war, fell to 4.0%, from 4.4% in the previous month. Consequently, the annual unempl...