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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political crisis rumbles on; growth slows, CA shifts to surplus and fiscal deficit increases; we retain our yearend forecast of PEN3.9:USD1
PERU · Report · 17 Sep 2024 · 1 response

In this report, we discuss our new quarterly forecasts, which are guided by our three scenarios: base, low and high cases. On politics, we remain firm on our base case, wherein President Dina Boluarte stays in power until the end of her term in July 2026. Moreover, we have reduced the probability...

Lula signed into law the bill on payroll taxes, the Copom will meet today to decide on the basic interest rate, and Lula will meet with the heads of government to discuss the wildfire situation in the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2024

Yesterday, President Lula signed into law the bill addressing the reinstatement of payroll taxes. There were five vetoes, most of them related to provisions that established Non-Tax Credit Collection and Negotiation Centers. President Lula has scheduled a meeting for this afternoon with the heads...

Ambitious official targets
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Sep 2024

President Javier Milei presented the 2025 budget proposal to the Chamber of Deputies. Normally, this procedure is carried out by the Minister of Economy, but this year the head of state wanted to do it personally to emphasize that balancing the fiscal accounts is the crucial goal of his economic ...

Government announces Public Administration Reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Sep 2024

The government announced yesterday its proposal for restructuring, rationalization, and elimination of duplications in public institutions, a key element of the fiscal reform it has committed to implementing. The goal is to reduce spending and improve efficiency. According to the government, the ...

US accuses China of supplying Russia directly with military goods for the first time
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2024

Various events surrounding the relationship between Russia and China have unfolded recently that demonstrate the important role of China in the Ukraine war—and the role both countries have in supporting each other’s strategic objectives. On September 11, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell...

Economics: The trend toward reduced hiring extends through July as wages start to reflect the pressure
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2024

Labor market indicators for the second quarter and July of this year show a slowdown in employment that largely mirrors how the various segments of the economy are performing. The deceleration is mainly to be found in the primary and manufacturing sectors but has also extended to services, the we...

The succession in the House narrows down and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2024

A quiet week in the Legislature. The Senate's Economic Affairs Committee will hold public hearings to discuss Tax Reform. In the economic sphere, the highlight is the Central Bank's meeting to decide on the basic interest rate. On Friday, the government will release the revenue and expenditure re...

In the Heat of the Night
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 16 Sep 2024 · 1 response

Output should grow 3% in 2024, driven by domestic demand, while net imports continue to expand to accommodate the gap relative to GDP. In 2025, activity should slow down to 2%, close to its potential pace. Thus, the labor market will remain tight, with unemployment continuing to decline, while th...

Politics: Dirty tricks paved the way for passage of the judicial reform, but major fights remain, with a constitutional crisis possible
MEXICO · Report · 16 Sep 2024

President López Obrador’s much heralded Judicial Reform was approved in the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate, and, at last count, by 23 of the country’s 32 states, clearing the way for its promulgation, which was signed on September 15 and published in the Official Gazette. But the proposal provok...

Budget 2025: back to harsh war reality
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2024

On September 13th, the Cabinet submitted the draft spending plan for 2025 to parliament. The most notable aspect of the proposed budget is the allocation of UAH 2.2 trillion (nearly $53.8 billion at the current exchange rate) or 56% of central budget spending for defense, which is significantly h...

A slower week in Congress, the Copom will meet to decide on the basic interest rate, and the STF may decide on the Reintegra credits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2024

This will be a slower week in the Legislature. Tomorrow, September 17, the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will hold a public hearing on the impact of the Tax Reform on Special Customs Regimes, Export Processing Zones (ZPEs), and the Capital Goods Regime. This week, the Central Bank's M...

Inflation surprises sharply on the upside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Sep 2024

1. Inflation in August (0.9% m/m) surprised sharply on the upside due to a spike in fresh produce and airfares. 2. Our base call remains for rate stability on October 9th, but shekel weakness could pose a dilemma for the MPC. 3. Data for Q3 has been encouraging, especially exports, private ...

The challenges of the pension system and Mulino's path to reform
PANAMA · Report · 16 Sep 2024

President Mulino made several important announcements on Thursday, September 12, focusing on the path of the pension reform and placing strong emphasis on measures to improve the healthcare system, which could lead to political gains. On the pension system, Mulino confirmed a dialogue table start...

Rates to remain on hold for quite some time as inflation accelerates; a rate hike cannot be ruled out if the shekel weakens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2024

Geopolitics: Cease-fire negotiations with Hamas appear to have stalled. Israel continues to target specific areas in Gaza (but with a lower level of intensity) and the level of hostilities (number of missile barrages) in the North appear to have escalated. A missile from Yemen was intercepted 35 ...

Not much new to report
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2024

Frankly, readers may dispense with the domestic policy essays of the politics author, where he repeats his well-known views on late-2025 elections and the potential banning of CHP Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. In diplomatic matters, the cozying relationship between the US and Greek Cyprio...

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