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Rates on hold on the back of elevated geopolitical risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 May 2024

As expected, rates remain steady at 4.5% In the past few rate decisions, the Bank of Israel has been clear regarding the overwhelming consideration of elevated geopolitical risks. Therefore, this decision was totally predictable with the war grinding on steadily in Gaza and in the North. The open...

Life in the carry trade haven
TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2024

The domestic political agenda is becoming more fragmented by the day, as President Erdogan fails to act decisively to mobilize his party and the media to guide the discussion in the direction of his strengths. The post-election polls largely reveal Ozel and CHP retaining their popularity, which c...

Putin in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2024

On May 23 met his Belarusian counterpart. The press releases said the two presidents discussed economic cooperation and collaboration in other spheres.  Both countries have publicized the fact that they have been holding nuclear exercises. There are Russian nuclear arms in Belarus. Belarus is Rus...

Purge of Russian Army
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2024

Since April 2024, 5 top military officials have been arrested. On May 23 the deputy chief of the general staff was arrested. Lieutenant General Shamarin headed the communications directorate. He has been accused of major corruption dating back to 2016. On the same day a high ranking procurement b...

Moldova signs defense agreement with the EU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2024

On May 24 Moldova became the first country to sign a security and defense partnership with the EU. The EU External Affairs Commissioner was in Moldova for the signing. Moldova is a candidate member of the EU. Moldova is eager to join the European Union. It is between Ukraine and Romania. Moldovan...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades RAK, Qatar issues green bond, Adnoc invests in LNG abroad, Gulf officials attend funeral in Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 May 2024 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf ministers and Qatar’s Emir attended Raisi’s funeral, and Iran set elections for June 28. * The ICJ demanded a halt to the Rafah offensive, and the ICC proposed charges for Israeli and Hamas officials. * King Salman’s...

Webinar Replay - Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 May 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan. Why is Armenia growing at around twice projected GDP rates and what is PM Pashinyan's strategy for staying in power? Is Georgia headi...

Rate hold expected on elevated risks
ISRAEL · Report · 24 May 2024

1. We expect a rate-hold decision on Monday on the back of elevated geopolitical risks. 2. We maintain our inflation forecast of 3.3% in the NTM, which is at the high end of consensus. 3. The lack of demand for tradeable bonds by pension funds has supported higher yields.

Rate hold expected on Monday on elevated risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 May 2024

Geopolitics: Renewed fighting in Gaza continues, including Israel’s push into Rafah. The missile barrage from Lebanon continues as well. There is a renewed initiative to reach cease-fire in Gaza and the US is pushing hard to broker a US-Saudi-Israel agreement, but so far Netanyahu has been oppose...

US military drills in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2024

On May 18 a US military aircraft landed in Moldova bringing troops from the US Air Force and the North Carolina National Guard. The Americans are there to take part in an exercise to practice tactics to respond to a civil emergency. The exercise is called "Shield of Peace". The US brought defense...

MPC: Mop up and wait
TURKEY · Report · 23 May 2024

There was no surprise at today’s CBRT/MPC meeting, with the Committee keeping the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 50%. The statement was also largely unchanged. There were some minor revisions to the first paragraph on the general state of the economy with references to a “limited d...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 May 2024 · 1 response

The situation in the FX market remained relatively stable. A steady inflow of FX earnings contributed to the ruble strengthening (close to R/$90) amid moderate trading activity. Most likely, in the near future, the ruble will fluctuate in a narrow range of R/$90-92. Its potential for appreciation...

The vote on the Mover bill has been postponed once again, the House approved the bill that penalizes illegal occupants of rural properties and public buildings, and Haddad said a 3% inflation target is “very demanding”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2024

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), once again postponed the vote on the Mover bill in the plenary of the House. The decision was taken after a meeting with the leaders and the rapporteur of the matter, Átila Lira (PP-PI). Yesterday, the House concluded the vote on the bill that esta...

EU approves use of proceeds from Russian frozen assets for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2024

On May 21 the decision in relation to up to EUR 3 billion was announced. 90% of this will go to the European Peace Facility and it will pay EU countries for the military equipment they donate to Ukraine. There has been discussion of confiscating the frozen Russian assets but several EU member sta...

The second Tax Reform regulation bill may be submitted next week, Lira announced the Tax Reform working groups, and Haddad says the taxation of international purchases will not compensate for payroll tax relief
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2024

According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the second bill on Tax Reform regulation, specifically on the Steering Committee that will discuss the federal distribution of revenue from the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS), will be sent to Congress next week, before the holiday on May 30....

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