CBRT surprises on the cautious side

TURKEY - Report 22 Jan 2026 by Murat Ucer

Compared to forecasts of a 150 bps cut (including ours), the CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more modest and cautious 100 bps today to 37%. There were two relatively minor changes in the statement. Regarding January inflation, the Bank noted that “[w]hile leading indicators suggest that monthly consumer inflation has firmed in January, led by food prices, the rise in the underlying trend of inflation is limited”. As for demand conditions, it stated that they “continue to support the disinflation process, albeit at a moderating pace”.

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