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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Expect a temporarily low headline inflation figure tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Oct 2024

The September CPI-inflation data is due from KSH early morning tomorrow. There seems to be broad consensus that a significantly lower number is likely to show up for the headline rate compared to all recent data, indeed the lowest seen at any time since February 2021. There is also broad consensu...

Preparing for resistance through 2025 and beyond
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Many publications about a potential peace deal have appeared in Western media, sometimes with claims that Ukraine might accept territorial concessions. It's hard to determine who is signaling what with these articles, but from Kyiv, much of this seems out of touch — similar to in 2022, when Weste...

Campaigning for the run-off of the municipal elections has begun, one of the priorities in the House is the bill on the Management Committee, and Galípolo’s confirmation hearing will be held in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Electoral campaigning for the run-off of the municipal elections was authorized starting at 5 PM yesterday. Voters in 52 municipalities, including 15 state capitals, will return to the polls on October 27 to elect candidates for mayor. The President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), called a mee...

Economics: Business confidence in the Mexican economy weakens in recent months
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Business confidence has been weakening in recent months. According to Inegi’s Monthly Survey of Business Opinion, as of September 2024 the overall business confidence indicator stood at 50.9 points (the maximum is 100), a level 5.5 points lower than in the same month of the previous year and whic...

Finally, the Government presented its fiscal reform proposal.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 08 Oct 2024

Arguing that the Dominican Republic cannot depend indefinitely on debt to finance public services, and that there is a need for greater spending to fund the provision of public services, the Minister of Finance, Jochi Vicente, presented the fiscal reform proposal yesterday. According to the autho...

South Africa’s business environment and corporate dividends in 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Oct 2024

While the overall performance of the South African economy in 2024 is expected to improve somewhat from the previous year, the lackluster economic activity from 2023 (in the post-Covid-19 era) has had a detrimental impact on business activity. Despite the marked improvement in electricity supply ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

OVERVIEW THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT (?) Moody's decision to raise Brazil's credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1, with a positive outlook, bringing the investment grade carrot closer, was surprising and even awkward. The awkwardness stems from the risks associated with betting on a radical shift in fi...

The paradox in Lula's popularity, the results of the first-round municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

Following the first round of municipal elections, congressional activity is expected to increase. The Lower House may conclude the vote on the bill establishing the Management Committee for Tax Reform. Meanwhile, the Senate will analyze Gabriel Galípolo’s appointment to the presidency of the Cent...

On new data releases: weak industry, strengthening consumption, and moderate surpluses on the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2024

1. Industrial output fell 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy in August, he latter following -6.4% yoy in July. January-August was -3.8% yoy. So far this year, the usual mantra has been that most of the obvious weakness is caused by cars and batteries. But this time around, the foregoing preliminary numbers were ...

Politics: The Sheinbaum Presidency—first positions and implications
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2024

There were no big surprises in Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day in office and her two inauguration day speeches. Everything points to a continuation of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s social programs (a central axis of his and Morena’s so-called "Fourth Transformation"), ideology, a...

Center-right parties win big in the first round of the municipal elections, the Senate will hold Galípolo’s confirmation hearing tomorrow, and the STF will hear Google’s case on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2024

The results of the municipal elections confirm the predominance of center-right parties, reinforcing their role as an important indicator for the 2026 general elections. The data shows that the "Centrão" bloc has consolidated its dominance. Tomorrow (October 8), the Senate’s Economic Affairs Com...

Will the BoI sell FX in the market?
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Oct 2024

1. We have seen an elevated geopolitical risk vis-à-vis Iran in recent days. 2. This is likely to support a weaker shekel (depending on the level of escalation), in which case we think the BoI is likely to sell FX in the market. 3. Recent private consumption indicators for August point to d...

Kazakhstan placed Sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2024

Last week, Kazakhstan issued 10Y Sovereign Eurobonds for the first time since 2015. The issue was $1.5 bln, and the spread over the US Treasuries was 88 bps. The main purpose of this borrowing was the refinancing of the bond, which is due to mature on Oct 14 (and the amount is the same - $1.5 bln...

Red herrings, dark realities
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2024

President Erdogan and his loyal ally Mr. Bahceli are seriously freaking out about a potential Israeli assault so much so that, the president is claiming the Jewish holy land covers parts of Turkey. As far as the humble political analyst can investigate, the possibility of any type of military cla...

Further significant shekel depreciation could result in BoI intervention
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Oct 2024

Geopolitics: Israel has escalated intensely its attacks on Hezbollah attacking Beirut as well as commencing a limited ground operation. Hezbollah continues to fire missiles into the northern part of Israel. Markets are awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack last week with g...

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