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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Mar 21
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 17
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Hungary databank Mar 21
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Inflation moderation reduces the likelihood of a rate hike
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Oct 2024
1. September’s low CPI print reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. 2. The shekel appreciated sharply on Friday following the Sinwar assassination, but a ceasefire could be elusive. 3. Trade data point to both export and import expansion in Q324, but growth in Q424 wil...
Kind reminder: the MNB is likely to hold the base rate at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024
The Monetary Council is set to hold its monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. With EURHUF at 402, as we are writing this note, a rate cut is highly unlikely this time. This morning, Portfolio.hu published the results of its regular analyst poll. All twelve respondents expect that the Council wil...
Low inflation print reduces the likelihood of tightening in coming months
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Oct 2024
Geopolitics: The death of Sinwar, the Hamas leader, was greeted with some cautious optimism regarding a possible ceasefire. Israel continues its ground offensive in Northern Gaza and into Southern Lebanon. Missiles and drones from Hezbollah continue to be fired into Israel at a high intensity. ca...
U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2024
In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly...
President Abinader to withdraw the Fiscal Modernization Bill from the National Congress
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Oct 2024 · 3 responses
After facing strong criticism from various sectors of Dominican society, President Luis Abinader has announced that he will withdraw the Fiscal Modernization Bill from the National Congress. He stated that this decision was made because the legislative initiative lacked public support and did not...
Growth forecast revised down significantly
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2024
In this quarterly update, we are revising our GDP forecast downward by a significant amount, following similar recent moves by other forecasters but taking a somewhat more pessimistic view than most of the other forecasts we know (Table 1). We are doing so on account of the continued, and current...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Kuwait’s non-oil growth rises, Hamas's leader killed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dipped as low as $72 on reduced concerns that Israel might strike Iranian oil facilities, and amidst indicators of weaker demand in China. * The first EU-GCC summit was held in Brussels, with participants inclu...
New Fiscal Social Responsibility Law is approved by the Cabinet and submitted to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2024
On October 14, the Assembly received the proposal for a new fiscal law (LRSF in Spanish). This law is necessary to establish the deficit ceilings before enacting the 2025 budget (which we will comment on in an upcoming report). This new version of the LRSF includes three topics within the same bo...
Ukraine accuses North Korea of sending troops to Ukraine—North Korean-Russian relations in focus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2024
Over the past few weeks, Ukraine and its Western allies have alleged on numerous occasions at all levels that North Korea is sending combat troops to fight in Ukraine. While these claims have not been substantiated, Russian and North Korean relations have been deepening ever since the start of th...
Lula will travel to Russia on Sunday to participate in the BRICS summit, the government will discuss parliamentary fund transfers next week, and Senator Braga is expected to submit his work schedule
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2024
On Sunday, President Lula will travel to Russia to participate in the BRICS summit. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) will attend the 4th G20 Finance Ministers Meeting next week. Next week, a meeting between representatives of the three branches of government is scheduled to discuss an agreem...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian elections—the calm before the storm
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Oct 2024
The Georgian Parliamentary elections are attracting a great deal of attention, and the CEC announced that international observer organizations are already at a record high. With the geopolitical stakes so high, the elections have been described by the ruling Georgian Dream as a choice between war...
As fiscal space compresses, borrowings bloat
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024
It’s not surprising that the Philippine National Government (NG) should further increase its borrowings both from the local and external capital markets. With revenue collections amounting to P2.993 trillion for the first eight months of 2024, equivalent to 17.1% of GDP, and expenditures totaling...
Kazakh economy keeps growing at decent rate, results by segments remain mixed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 9M24, the short-term indicator (the Bureau’s monthly flash estimate of the country’s economic activity) grew by 5.3% y-o-y and seemingly accelerated sharply in September as, in 8M24, it was up by 4.4%. Note that this measure is weighted activity ...
Waiting for the Man
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * As we have come to expect in the past few months, September’s data release was disappointing, with the demand side struggling to keep pace with a not-especially-brisk supply side. Import growth was much weaker than export growth, and what little i...
Zelenskiy hints at resurrecting nuclear weapons, sending a mild warning to an indecisive West
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024
Today in Brussels, while presenting the Victory Plan to EU leaders, President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned that during his conversation with Donald Trump in September, he told Trump that Ukraine would either join NATO or pursue nuclear weapons. The narrative about the need to resurrect nuclear we...