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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russian macro: GDP—uneven performance by sector amid ongoing structural changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
In the aftermath of Rosstat’s publication of regular economic statistics that looked decent in 1Q24 and 4M24, June appears to be a month with some negative surprises. Persistently high (and even accelerating) inflation is one of them. The statistical agency reported that the MTD inflation reached...
Temporary Relief in the Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
This time there were no surprises as the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided, as expected, not only to maintain the target for the benchmark interest rate at 10.5% per year but also did so unanimously, scaling down – at least for now – fears of another divided decision, which...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024
The recently announced package of sanctions against several companies (including the National Clearing Center), which provides infrastructure for FX trading at the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), was a negative surprise. Even though the market participants had been considering such a possibility since 20...
Padilha said he will soon find the funding source for compensatory measures for payroll tax relief, there will be no legislative activity next week, and the Central Bank decided to maintain the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
Yesterday, the Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, said that the government expects to reach an agreement with Congress and business leaders within two weeks to establish a source of compensation for the payroll tax exemption. Padilha's deadline is the firs...
Slide Presentation - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
Get insight into Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".
Disinflation (with risks)
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2024
In this piece, our outlook for 2024–2025, we hold to our single public policy scenario no matter who wins the July 28 presidential election. Regardless of that outcome, the Maduro government will be in power at least until January 2025 and will have incentives to hold to its stabilization course ...
Putin visits Vietnam
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024
On June 20 Putin arrived in the country for the fifth time. He met the Vietnamese President. Russia likes to prove that it has cordial relations with some countries despite the Ukraine War. Vietnam is neutral on the war. Vietnam sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. There is a small Vietnamese commun...
Putin visits North Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2024
On May 18 Putin arrived in the country for the first time since 2000. For a long time North Korea was unimportant to Russia. It mattered much more to trade with North Korea's regional foes: South Korea and Japan. All that changed in 2022. Russia needs shells and other military hardware. North Kor...
France to give howitzers to Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2024
On June 18 a deal was made with Armenia. They will be CAESARs, which are self-propelled. The agreement was signed in Paris by the respective defense ministers. Armenia's archenemy is Azerbaijan. Baku will not be happy that France is arming Armenia. Because the EU is trying to wean itself off Russ...
European and local elections have changed domestic politics substantially
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2024 · 1 response
In the European election of June 9, Mr. Orbán’s hopes that the radical right would beat the mainstream bloc were essentially dashed, despite the former indeed making some moderate gains. His immediate response was a sharp turn in external policies, holding back Hungary's blocking votes against NA...
The Challenge of Seasonality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2024
According to the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC), broad retail fell 1% in April, a contraction following 2.5% growth in the first quarter. However, it is noteworthy the discrepancy between this result and the growth of restricted retail (0.9%), vehicles and parts (1.6%), and building materials ...
Congress prepares for 2026 elections; we expect the fiscal deficit to widen, and the CA to remain in surplus; Central Bank will keep cutting, but more policy pauses can’t be ruled out
PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2024
In this report, we begin by discussing politics, focusing on the high number of laws approved by Congress that will shape the 2026 presidential and congressional elections. We then summarize our forecasts on the economy. We start by discussing our base, low and high-case scenarios, followed by re...
The economic team is still waiting for the compensatory measures for payroll tax relief, the Budget committee should present a proposal on spending cuts, and the rapporteur of the BC autonomy bill reads his report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2024
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that the economic team is waiting for compensatory proposals for payroll tax relief so that the Federal Revenue Service can run its calculations. The total cost of the tax exemption is R$ 26 billion. Yesterday, Lula had a meeting with the Budget Committee, wh...
A Hostile World Demands Coherence in Economic Policy Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2024
The depreciation of the Brazilian real, which began late last year, has gained momentum in recent months. Part of this movement occurred alongside the appreciation of the dollar, but recently domestic factors have been predominant. The currency weakening occurs despite a positive exchange flow, d...
Economics: External and internal risks weigh on historically high FDI over the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024
FDI remained high through 1Q24, but new investment flows have slowed to a trickle, and we look for both internal and external factors to seriously limit inflows over an intermediate time horizon. At 20.313 billion dollars, foreign direct investment in Mexico in the aggregate turned in a favorable...