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Haddad says discussions on spending cuts are progressing, Lira announced his support for Hugo Motta in the House, and Pacheco announced a schedule for voting on the Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2024

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that discussions surrounding the spending cut agenda are progressing. The Budget Execution Board (JEO) is expected to meet this week to address the spending cut measures. As anticipated, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), announced ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024

Oct 16 National Nuclear Company: Kazatomprom and German Siemens have signed a strategic agreement on partial localization of equipment production in Kazakhstan. Samruk-Kazyna: The Fund and the Chinese CITIC Group have agreed on strategic cooperation. Banking regulation: The Agency for Regulation ...

First reaction to this morning's report of horrendous preliminary Q3 GDP data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024 · 1 response

First the facts: Q3 real GDP growth on sda basis was reported by KSH as -0.7% qoq, -0.7% yoy, implying +0.7% yoy growth in the first three quarters of 2024. This was by 0.6%-point qoq, 1.1%-point yoy below the median analyst expectation (and even more below our own forecast, which happened to be ...

MoF releases optimistic GDP forecast in 2025, as basis for tax revenue forecast in the budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024

The Ministry of Finance expects growth of 4.3 percent in 2025 (0.4 percent in 2024), assuming an end to the fighting at the current intensity by the end of the year, and a gradual recovery in 2025. This forecast is more optimistic than that of the Bank of Israel, 3.8 percent, ours (3.4 percent), ...

Argentina’s improving macro outlook
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In this report, we review the recent growth, inflation, trade and fiscal indicators. The recent macroeconomic activity indicators have shown an improvement, while the strengthening of the external (accrued) balances allows us to anticipate a relatively stable FX market, with an outlook of a likel...

A mixed performance
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In Costa Rica, praise for national economic management, and early-year successful evaluations from external analysts then embraced by the official discourse, now seem premature, as the country is falling short in several macroeconomic indicators. Economic activity is still increasing nicely, but ...

On the forint once again: no rate cut in November either?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2024

Well, with the forint still following a weakish trend and standing at EURHUF 405 today, it may be time to admit that the MNB's plan to stabilise the exchange rate and hold EURHUF back from running above the 400 line for any longer period, by skipping one month in its rate cutting series just does...

The market expects the announcement of government spending cuts, the House may resume voting on the Goods and Services Tax bill, and the Senate may hold hearings on the CBS and IBS bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2024

The market is anticipating an announcement of spending cuts by the government. Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met with President Lula for more than two hours regarding this. The Lower House may resume voting today on the bill regulating the management and oversight of the Goods and S...

Economics: Additional social programs and lack of fiscal reform spell further deterioration of public finances
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2024

The Ministry of Finance will deliver the 2025 Economic Package to the Chamber of Deputies on November 15. Only then will it be possible to learn in detail about the current government's policies, ostensibly aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit, guaranteeing the financing of social programs and in...

Kazakhstan macro: mixed budgetary performance in 9M24 amid lack of tax revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Oct 2024

At the end of last week, the Ministry of Finance released its monthly budgetary statistics, which revealed the continuous underperformance in the collection of taxes linked to oil prices and the exchange rate, and the September data didn’t point to any breakthrough. However, as the overall econom...

Politics: Reform impasse deepens as Sheinbaum ignores court and moves to ban judicial review of reforms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Just two weeks ago, we provided an account of the serious conflicts generated by passage of the judicial reform proposals championed by the previous and current presidents of Mexico and the constitutional crisis it had ignited. Since then, the crisis has steadily deepened, fanned by the increasi...

Depending on the Kindness of Strangers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2024 · 1 response

Recent behavior of the U.S. dollar and interest rates indicates that external factors' contribution to the appreciation of Brazil's exchange rate are likely to be lower than expected. Along with data showing robust activity and labor market conditions, increased odds of Donald Trump winning the p...

The CBR hikes the key rate by 200 bps as inflation remains high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

Last Friday, the Central Bank hiked the key rate to 21%, well above market expectations. In October, inflation y-o-y will likely be about the same as in September, i.e., 8.6% or slightly higher. Note that inflation fell to low single-digit levels in 1H23 but has accelerated since then, driven by ...

Municipal election runoff results, the legislative agenda post-elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2024

With the municipal elections concluded, Congress resumes its activities. The Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) will begin a series of debates on tax reform starting Tuesday, October 29, and continuing through November 14. Senator Ângelo Coronel (PSD-BA) is expected to introduce a ...

Chile's local elections: Implications
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

A year out from its next presidential vote, Chile held elections on Sunday for local authorities. These include governors, mayors and city council members. Local elections are seen as a barometer of political strength. On Sunday night President Gabriel Boric said that the results were “sweet and ...

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