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Discussions continue on spending cut measures, more congressional caucuses announce their support for Hugo Motta, and the CCJ extended the discussion timeline on the Tax Reform regulation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Internal discussions on spending cut measures continue. There is a chance these measures may be announced later this week. New congressional caucuses formally announced their support for Hugo Motta's (Republicanos-PB) candidacy yesterday: the PSB, PDT, and the PSDB/Cidadania federation. Together,...

Implications of Trump's win for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2024

Back in September, I shared some reflections on the potential implications of the US election for the GCC and wider region, as well as reviewing the history of relations between the Gulf States and the Trump and Biden Administrations. There will be lots more to unpick on this in the coming weeks ...

Bulgaria holds 7th election in three years as the Russia question divides the electorate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Bulgaria’s 7th election in the last three years has not yielded drastically different results from the last election in June, and a hung parliament is still likely, with some parties holding pro-Russian views. Bulgarian companies have been sanctioned for supporting Russia’s military, as Bulgaria'...

Haddad is expected to announce a package of measures by the end of the week, negotiations continue on the parliamentary fund transfers bill, and the Senate may vote on the carbon market bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance released a statement at the end of the day, noting that during yesterday's meeting, the country’s fiscal situation was presented and understood, as well as the proposals under discussion. The measures are expected to be announced by the end of the week, although...

Inflation accelerates in October, as budgetary spending catches up with amended plan
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in October, m-o-m inflation accelerated to 0.9% (versus 0.4% in September). Inflation y-o-y climbed to 8.5% (from 8.3% in September). Services prices grew by 14.3%, inflation in the non-food segment reached 7.8%, and food prices were up by a mere 4....

Erdogan declares war on Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

Barely had the Turkish body-politic recovered from the sacking of CHP Esenyurt (Istanbul) mayor, Prof Ahmet Ozturk, Erdogan dealt a second blow to tranquility by ordering the ouster of three Kurdish (DEM Party) mayors in the provinces of Mardin, Batman as well as the Halfeti town in the province ...

Economics: October data shows a lackluster economy as public finances deteriorate further and the inflation outlook remains murky
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

A review of indicators published in October confirms the slow coasting of the economy and an accelerating deterioration of public finances. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere 3 bps in August, largely in response to a sharp drop in civil engineering works, while manufacturing again grew ...

Politics: Embedded and emboldened organized crime groups with links to the government are a major problem for Sheinbaum
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The most striking feature of most balance sheets of security under López Obrador's government was the level of violence. Despite official statistics registering a downtrend in homicides in the past two years, for AMLO’s entire six years in office there were close to 200,000 murders and more than ...

The uncertain path to 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The House may vote on the bill regarding the new rules for the payment of parliamentary fund transfers. In the Senate, leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the carbon market bill. Elmar Nascimento may announce his withdrawal from the candidacy for the presidency of the House. The Central B...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

OVERVIEW THE CONFIDENCE CRISIS STILL WAITS FOR AN ADEQUATE RESPONSE The decline of the Workers' Party (PT) in the municipal elections at the end of October added a significant element to the political landscape. The major winners were the Social Democratic Party (PSD), known as the “Kassab...

October inflation: some good, some bad news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 2.9%, m/m, in October, markedly exceeding consensus forecasts of around 2.5%, with the 12-month rate nevertheless falling to 48.6% from 49.4%, on the back of continuing base effects. Monthly PPI inflation was a more modest 1.3%, with the 12-month rat...

It's all about politics and the strength of our institutions as Jamaica changes its Finance Minister
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The long wait of over two months to see who would replace Jamaica’s Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke ended last week, literally as he was at the airport on his way to Washington on Wednesday to take up his new position at the IMF at the very end of October. Prime Minister Andrew Holness announce...

Haddad canceled his trip to Europe, the Copom will meet to decide on the basic interest rate, and the House may vote on the parliamentary fund transfers bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, at President Lula’s request, canceled the trip he was scheduled to make this week to Europe. This has raised expectations that the fiscal package measures will be announced in the coming days. Amid fiscal uncertainty, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee ...

The War on Drugs: Did Duterte testify against himself?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Nov 2024

As a cornerstone of his presidential campaign, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, in his inaugural address on June 30, 2016, vowed to exert relentless and sustained efforts in the campaign against drugs and criminality. This appeared to be his priority as he delegated the formulation o...

Markets will follow the fiscal approval process closely
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Nov 2024

1. The 4% deficit target has been approved by the cabinet, but the full implementation of adjustments appears unlikely. 2. Optimism regarding a decline in hostilities and a possible ceasefire has supported the long end of the curve, but much will depend on fiscal credibility. 3. Recent econ...

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