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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Good-looking headline CPI reading in June, but somewhat misleading
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

Headline CPI-inflation for June was reported at 0% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter down from 4% in May, this morning. Analysts expected 3.9% yoy, so the actual looks like a really good figure. Note: Year-on-year changes in percent; Source: KSH However, this positive picture might be a bit misleading, a...

The federal budget looks stable in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1H24, it collected R5.7 trln in oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues, and another R11.4 trln came from various non-O&G incomes, such as VAT. Meanwhile, VAT is the largest constituency of non-O&G revenues, and according to the 2024 annual plan, it should be about 54....

BCRP to extend its policy pause on July 11th
PERU · In Brief · 08 Jul 2024

We have decided to call for an extended policy pause at Banco Central de Reserva del Perú's (BCRP, the central bank) Board meeting on July 11th. Although in our June report we had called for a 25bp cut, the Instituto de Estadística e Informática's (INEI, the statistical institute) June inflation ...

Fernando Haddad defends the fiscal anchor and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2024

This week, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, will try to facilitate the approval of the so-called "consumption reform" (Complementary Bill No. 68/24). In the Senate, the agenda continues to focus on payroll tax reduction. The priority for Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco is the bill that a...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jul 2024

OVERVIEW RADICALIZATION AND UNCERTAINTY It was necessary for Brazil to experience a much worse performance than emerging markets in general, as the Real weakened to R$ 5.70 per dollar, while expectations for both interest rates and inflation increased significantly, for President Lula to pu...

Politics: Some of Sheinbaum’s latest cabinet picks provide a reality check vs. the praise her previous choices enjoyed
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2024 · 1 response

After winning praise over the course of June for 13 initial cabinet picks with strong professional credentials and experience, last week President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum included some more explicitly political choices when announcing four more appointments. A case in point is the decision to ret...

Budget Challenge: Wise Use, Sustainable Financing
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Jul 2024

The Executive Branch through the Department of Budget and Management and the cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) will formally submit a budget proposal for P6.352 trillion for 2025 on July 25, a week after the legislature reopens on July 22. Lower House Speaker and Leyt...

Rate hold decision with a hawkish message
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Jul 2024

Rate hold decision with a hawkish message To our surprise, instead of a hint of possible loosening when geopolitical risks subside, the underlying message was one of concern regarding inflationary pressure going forward and concern regarding more prolonged hostilities at a more intense level prev...

Lira will try to approve the CBS and IBS Tax Reform bill this week, the CCJ will analyze two PECs, and Pacheco may submit a bill on state debt
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2024

This week, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, will try to facilitate the approval of the so-called “consumption reform” (Complementary Bill No. 68/24). The report of the Working Group was presented last week. The president of the Senate Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), Davi Alcolum...

Economics: Latest data confirms deterioration of public finances
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2024 · 1 response

Public finances continue to deteriorate just as had been expected ever since Congress passed the 2024 federal budget last November. The public deficit in its broadest definition (PSBR) expanded a real 153% yoy in January-May 2024 alongside a Federal Government deficit that was 2.5 times greater t...

Rate hold decision expected today, with a dovish bias
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jul 2024

1. We expect a rate hold decision today, with a loosening bias. 2. Business sentiment reflects growth improvement in June, but expectations are for slower growth ahead. 3. Hi-tech service exports expanded rapidly in April, a positive factor for the shekel when geopolitical risks decline.

Russian airline grounding much of its fleet due to sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

S7 Airlines cannot fly around 38 passenger aircraft due to lack of spare parts and maintenance. Some of the repairs can only be done outside of Russia. S7 is the second biggest airline in the country. Its Airbus A320neo jets are crucial to its fleet. It has 31, and 15 will not be flown until furt...

Not much new to write home about
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2024

Turkey exploded in anti-Syrian rage during the week, while Syrians in Turkey-controlled areas of their country retaliated in kind. The politics author does not anticipate more inter-communal violence, but President Erdogan is now desperate to make peace with Assad. The major threat to Erdogan fro...

Mixed macro data reported again in recent days
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

In the past week, Mr. Orbán's lively diplomatic manoeuvres took all of the limelight, but there were also important data releases. Some of the new figures were quite positive, but others were not, and so the overall picture was not particularly impressive. First, the Q1 general government deficit...

A rate hold decision is expected hinting at likely loosening when geopolitical risks decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

Geopolitics: There is renewed optimism regarding a possible cease-fire and a hostage deal with Hamas not demanding a complete end to hostilities and total Israel withdrawal as pre-conditions for a deal. It is still difficult to say whether a deal will actually occur. Israel continues to operate i...

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