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GDP y-o-y growth slows in 3Q24, dragged by agriculture and construction
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Rosstat published its flash 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate, and it appeared that economic growth slowed as it posted a mere 3.1% y-o-y as a preliminary figure. So far, Rosstat has not published any other 3Q24 GDP data, such as the nominal number or m-o-m growth (including seasonally adjusted). It...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Oct 30 Government: Due to the Tengiz project expansion, Kazakhstan expects to receive $2.8 bln in the budget by the end of 2025. Economy Ministry: The foreign assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan will amount to $78.7 bln by 2027. Kazakhstan Automobile Union: Production of motor vehicles in K...

Strong export growth is shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

Exports surged in recent months. In August-October, industrial exports increased by 15% q/q, with strong growth in sectors identified as mostly defense: Metal products/machinery and transport equipment, but in pharma and chemical products as well. But generally, high-tech exports were up 14%. Imp...

A new poll shows the government’s disapproval rating has reached the highest level yet, the market awaits the announcement of the fiscal package, and Senator Barros made changes to the carbon credit bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2024

Yesterday, CNT/MDA released a government approval rating poll. Disapproval of the government has reached its highest level since Lula began his third term. In May 2023, it was at 35% and has now risen to 46%. Meanwhile, the market awaits the announcement of the fiscal adjustment promised by the g...

Euphoria Over Trump’s Peace Promise Seems Premature
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

In early 2022, European leaders, as well as the U.S., assumed that the occupation of Ukraine was imminent. Germany's Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, told the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin that Russia would occupy Ukraine within hours. All embassies were evacuated from Kyiv in February 20...

Slide Presentation - GCC Outlook: Oil, diversification, regional conflicts and US relations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2024

Get insight into the GCC's views on the outlook for oil, the trends in economic diversification, how the regional conflict could impact the Gulf states, and how relations with the US could change under the Trump administration with the slide presentation from our webinar, "GCC Outlook: Oil, dive...

Update: CPI-inflation in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

Regarding our note on October's good-looking inflation data, unfortunately we have found no good explanation, official, anecdotal or anything, on KSH's reporting a 6.8% mom decrease of the prices of telephone and internet services. Simply speaking, we see no announcements, news, anecdotal reports...

COPOM Watch: Bad Omens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

While the statement following last week’s Copom meeting was virtually identical to the previous meeting's (albeit with a slightly more critical tone toward fiscal policy), the minutes brought some changes compared to its previous incarnation. These changes, while not suggesting any commitment reg...

Economics: Gross fixed capital formation in August posts a contraction due to a significant weakening in construction
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The Inegi published figures for gross fixed capital formation as of August, which showed an annual -0.9% contraction. This was the first decline since February 2021 and is attributable to a -6.0% contraction in construction investment, while the machinery and equipment component increased 5.0%. ...

Haddad will meet with Lula to discuss the fiscal package, Deputy Hilton’s proposal on working hours is gaining attention, and the regulation of Tax Reform continues to be discussed in the CCJ
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, stated that he will meet with President Lula today to discuss the progress of the fiscal package. According to him, the President requested the inclusion of another ministry in the fiscal effort. The initiative by the PSOL leader in the House, Deputy Erik...

Politics: Judicial reform becomes constitutional, with no other option left for opponents
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024

On Tuesday, November 5, what was the last hope for opponents of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and newly inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Judicial Reform vanished into thin air as, at the last minute, the Supreme Court failed by one vote to obtain the 8 vs 3 majority required to rule on its...

A (Near) Perfect Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

Inflation forecasts point to a high likelihood of exceeding the upper limit of the target this year. Meanwhile, the Central Bank's inflation projection for the 12 months ending in June 2026, the relevant horizon for monetary policy, is 3.6%, indicating the need for an adjustment of approximately ...

Challenges surrounding the spending review package and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The government is expected to send fiscal adjustment proposals to Congress. In the Senate, two important bills are on the agenda: the new rules for parliamentary fund transfers and the carbon market. Additionally, the Senate’s Committee on Constitution and Justice resumes public hearings on the t...

Erdogan throws hat into ring----amidst war drums
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone after a brief experiment with “normalization”, which is a wind of fresh breath for Yours Truly, who has become a crisis junkie long time ago. Just like the good old days, each new dawn brings fresh shocks, most of which contradict the main developments o...

Here is the actual October CPI-inflation data: lower than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

The headline rate is reported at 0.1% mom, 3.2% yoy, materially below the expected 3.4% yoy (MNB, ourselves) and 3.5% yoy (analysts' median forecast - see yesterday's note). Perhaps more importantly, core inflation was only 4.5% yoy, rather than the 5% indicated in the MNB's forecast chart, on no...

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