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Hungarian PM in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2024

On July 2 Viktor Orban came to Kyiv and met Zelensky. Ukraine really needs to win Orban over. Of all the EU leaders he is the most skeptical about Western aid to Ukraine. This is Orban's first visit to Ukraine. He once blocked a EUR 50 billion aid package to Ukraine for months. He has also been o...

Lula may sanction the PLP on active debt this week, the Tax Reform Working Group’s final report is expected to be submitted tomorrow, and the Working Group on the Management Committee will meet with governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2024

The Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations said the President is expected to sanction this week the Complementary Law Project (PLP) regulating the securitization of active debts of the Federal Government, states, Federal District, and municipalities. The presentation of the final...

The importance of Minas Gerais and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

This will be a busy week in Brasília. In the House, the highlight is the presentation of the Tax Reform Working Group report. In the Senate, the debate continues around payroll tax relief and compensatory measures. In the Executive branch, the highlight is the launch of the 2024-2025 Harvest Plan...

Chinese projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

China is the major investor in Central Asia. Russia's role in the five former Soviet republics in the region has declined in real and absolute terms. This has been accelerated since the Ukraine War began. However, it has not disappeared and Russia will still have some role in the region for decad...

Up, Up and Away: Inflationary Impulses Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Recent inflation dynamics are showing unfavorable signs that require attention. IPCA-15 underlying measures accelerated, and the pressure is expected to continue, reflecting an economic activity close to or above full employment. Simultaneously, the depreciation of the real causes an additional s...

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus amid tensions with Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

On June 29 the EU said it was restricting trade with this Russian ally. The EU says that Belarus has bought dual-use items from the EU to re-sell to Russia even when this is specifically forbidden by the sale contract. The European Union is now preventing that. The items are navigation equipment,...

Politics: The second round of six Sheinbaum cabinet choices is also reassuring, but the toughest decisions remain
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024

A week after winning kudos for her first batch of a half dozen cabinet picks Claudia Sheinbaum reprised that performance by unveiling six more who also garnered praise, even from some of López Obrador’s critics. The president-elect again reassured economic and political actors by bringing in peop...

Economics: Recent economic indicators suggest that 2024 GDP growth will break slightly below 2%
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024

The economy continued to slow during the second quarter. After first quarter aggregate demand slowed to 2.6% YoY, indicators for April revealed a further loss of momentum, with the monthly GDP proxy (0.9% yoy) sputtering to its lowest reading in 30 months. Industrial activity only crawled 0.6% hi...

Likely scenario: one rate cut for the year?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

As expected by the markets, the BSP decided to keep its policy rates steady at 6.5%, the highest in 17 years last Thursday, June 27. Accordingly, interest rates on overnight deposit and lending facilities remained unchanged at 6.0% and 7%, respectively. Now focusing on the exchange rate path, the...

The House Working Group on Tax Reform may present its report on July 3, the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill should present his report this week, and the CCJ will discuss the PEC on the Central Bank’s autonomy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

The report from the House Working Group on Tax Reform regulation is expected to be presented on Wednesday, July 3. The House President, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is attempting to secure the approval of the text in the plenary next week. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-MG), the rapporteur of the bill ...

PM Orbán and two other European politicians launched a new European Parliament faction today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

PM Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP, together with Czechia's ANO party (which left the liberal Renew faction in June) and Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ, so far member of the radical right-winger Identity and Democracy faction) announced the establishment of a new party group within the European Parliament, und...

Turnout will be crucial
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2024 · 1 response

At this stage, the electoral outlook hinges on how the government decides to neutralize Edmundo González Urrutia's lead in the polls and how those decisions will bear on voter turnout. We have formulated five scenarios for the next 30 days. In each, the government makes a distinct cost-benefit an...

Will the Bank of Jamaica pivot avoid a policy mistake? IMF lauds resilience just as Hurricane Beryl approaches
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

In an interesting piece of timing, on Friday, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), in its own words, “pivots to easing monetary policy” just as the IMF lauded Jamaica’s “resilience” reforms literally the day before Beryl was upgraded to a hurricane. The BOJ cited as its reason that the May 2024 annual i...

Election Monitor VI: SA launches its 7th Administration; Ramaphosa’s second term is a new chapter in a rapidly shifting political structure
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2024

After weeks of socio-political anxiety and following intense political horse trading, President Ramaphosa unveiled the composition of his 2nd Cabinet Ministers. Unlike his first term, his party could not secure sufficient voter support to govern alone. Instead, the ANC decided to invite a wide ra...

Business and consumer sentiment less optimistic in Q2 2024
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Notwithstanding the country’s real economic growth of 5.7 percent in Q1 2024, business sentiment in the Philippines turned out less optimistic in Q2 of 2024, with the overall confidence index (CI) recorded at 32.1 percent from 33.1 percent in Q1 of the current year, as reported in the Business Ex...

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