Russian macro: The 4M26 industrial statistics suggests economic growth remains subdued
Rosstat announced that in 4M26, industrial output rose 0.7% y-o-y, up from 0.3% in the first quarter, with April alone posting a 1.9% y-o-y increase. Seasonally adjusted figures showed a 0.3% m-o-m gain in April. Mining was up 0.5% y-o-y in 4M26, while manufacturing grew by 3.2%. Monthly production data has been quite uneven this year, and the figures may be revised later.
In earlier reports, we highlighted some oddities in the recent industrial statistics. Until January 2026, Rosstat measured real industrial growth rates (including key segment breakdowns) using 2018 fixed prices and that year’s segment weights. From January 2026 onward, it switched to using 2023 prices and the weights of industrial segments from that year (2023). However, it didn’t recalibrate previous years’ data to the 2023 base year, so statistics now have a strange tipping point in January 2026, making earlier figures incompatible with those from 2026. Still, Rosstat combines them into one time series and applies a sort of "seasonal adjustment", in which m-o-m and y-o-y figures don’t line up.
Currently, the overall trends aren’t exactly straightforward. Historical data is being revised, but there’s still no sign of a clear rebound after last year’s economic slowdown. We plan to share more details on April’s economic trends once additional data appear, later this week.
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