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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Mar 21
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 17
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Hungary databank Mar 21
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The government may finally announce the spending package, the CCJ will hold three final public hearings this week, and the STF will submit the final report on the investigation into the attempted coup
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2024
The main event of the week is the announcement of the fiscal measures package that the government will reveal between today and tomorrow after a series of delays. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, is presenting a draft of the fiscal measures to the government today. The Senate’s Constitut...
Consequences of a failed policy
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2024
The Venezuelan authorities’ strategy of curbing inflation by pegging the official exchange rate by mid-October had opened up a gap between the official and parallel rates so wide that it forced the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to loosen the official rate. Subsequently, inflation began accelera...
Trump win: Philippines' gain or loss?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 25 Nov 2024
On November 5, 2024, the United States held its 60th quadrennial presidential election, with Donald Trump emerging as the 47th US president by a decisive majority. Trump, together with his vice president, JD Vance, are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. With a change in the ruling p...
Signs of a weakening labor market
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Nov 2024
1. A close analysis points to a softening of the labor market. 2. We expect a rate-hold decision today, with a positive mention regarding the 2025 fiscal framework. 3. Foreigners have been net purchasers of Israeli government bonds in recent months.
A too slow tenge’s weakening still holds tax revenues at bay
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2024
As the tenge hovered close to USD/KZT 500 in recent days (but didn’t cross this level) tax revenue flow, associated with the oil price and the exchange rate, remained unimpressive in October. From the fundamental point of view the tenge should have been at these levels (and even a bit weaker) a y...
SAUDI ARABIA: Moody’s upgrades back to Aa3 and above Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2024
Moody's upgraded Saudi Arabia to Aa3 due to progress in economic diversification and a track record of good fiscal governance. This is its highest rating since 2016 and, for the first time, it is rated more highly than Kuwait, despite much weaker per citizen wealth metrics.
Israel's risk premium declines on ceasefire expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Nov 2024
Geopolitics: A ceasefire in North still appears likely in the coming week, according to both Lebanese and Israel sources. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel resulting in some damage and casualties, as ...
Politics fluid, economy reasonably solid
TURKEY · Report · 24 Nov 2024
There is a lot of activity in the Turko-American relations, which according to the view of the political author, promises more upside than vice-versa, but it will take some time to work out the kinks. At home, Erdogan is redoubling the crackdown on opponents of all stripes, probably as a show ...
GULF WEEKLY: KSA investment licenses boom, Aramco plans more debt, UAE equity markets surpass $1trn, ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has recovered to $74 as the market weighs geopolitical risks and Chinese demand. * Trump nominated fracking pioneer Chris Wright as Energy Secretary and met with PIF’s chairman. * KSA issued a record number of...
Questions from our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration"
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024
We received a number of questions from participants that we didn't have time to answer during our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration". In this report, we answer these questions, which deal with topics such as Pemex, the auto industry, constitutional reform a...
Fitch Ratings maintains BB- risk rating with positive outlook
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Nov 2024
Fitch Ratings has decided to maintain the Dominican Republic's risk rating at BB- with a positive outlook. This marks the same rating assigned in 2023, when the country first received a positive outlook, following a period at BB- with a stable outlook between 2020 and 2022. The rating reflects th...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A cynic's view on Abkhazia's Black Friday
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Nov 2024
The breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, got its 15 minutes of fame last Friday when protesters stormed government buildings in Sukhumi in opposition to an investment agreement that would have legalized Russian investments and ownership of land a...
Webinar replay and slide presentation: Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024
How will Claudia Sheinbaum's government cope with a slowing economy? Will it be able to maintain the harmony of between inflation, wages, interest rates and the exchange rate? How effective will the 2025 fiscal program be in controlling the growth of public debt? What impact will the incoming US ...
The South African Reserve Bank maintains momentum as it lowers interest rates by a second consecutive 25 bps
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2024
The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a further 25 basis points, from 8% to 7.75%, during its final meeting of the year. This represents a second cut since the Bank started lowering rates in September of the current y...
Trump’s victory is good for Orbán, but not necessarily good for Hungary
HUNGARY · Report · 21 Nov 2024
PM Orbán appeared to be greatly relieved, and even victorious, on the news of Trump’s reelection for US president. Below we argue that this result will likely raise his personal status significantly, whereas Mr. Trump’s economic and foreign policies are much less likely to favor Hungary. In do...