Peru: Fujimori and Sanchez are tied in the run to Sunday's election

PERU - In Brief 05 Jun 2026 by Alfredo Thorne
Last night, two confidential polls were released and show that both candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez are tied. The former has slipped, while the latter has advanced. The difference in these polls are 0.8 percentage points (pp) in favor of Sanchez in one poll, and 1.8 pp in favor of Fujimori in the other. In both cases the difference is less than the margin of error reported by each pollster and we believe that the results are too close to call the election result. The votes from abroad are not well captured by these polls, although they can add between 0.3 and 0.6 pp to Fujimori. This indicates that we are moving to a scenario similar to 2021, when former president Castillo beat Fujimori by a very small margin.Being each candidate the antipodes in terms of proposals, one is tempted to discuss the differences in terms of proposals. However, our main fear and against the background of irregularities in the first round, the main risk is that no candidate acknowledges defeat. It is difficult to say what exactly could happen, but our sense is that this may open a protracted period when no candidate is announced winner and the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE, the office in charge of organizing the elections) and Jurado Nacional de Eleciones (JNE, the National Electoral Jury) decide to open the ballots and count vote by vote.Next is the difference between the two economic and political programs and we hope to cover this in our monthly essay due on June 16th.BestAlfredo Thorne  

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