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Politics: The extent of the next legislative majority and AMLO’s "Plan C"—two transcendental issues
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024

In the wake of the June 2 federal elections, the composition of the next Congress and López Obrador’s "Plan C" proposal to reform the Judiciary have emerged as the two main points of political debate. Morena lawmakers have announced that the open parliament discussions on the judiciary that virtu...

The spending-cut agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2024

The debate between the government and Congress over compensatory measures for payroll tax relief continues. The President of the Senate meets with governors to discuss state debt, and a proposal may be presented to President Lula this week. The Tax Reform Working Group in the House begins discuss...

A thorny path towards the presidency
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024

President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...

CA surplus remains strong, net FDI turns negative
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

Macro fundamentals remain shekel-supportive, but slightly less in previous. The current account surplus reached 6.8bn USD in the 1st quarter of 2024, down from 9.3bn in Q423, but higher than one year ago (5.7bn USD, all SA). In Q124, the service account surplus held nearly stable at 10.5bn while ...

Waiting for the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: As I mentioned in my May report, the Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domesti...

Senate leaders discuss compensatory measures for payroll tax relief, Pacheco discusses state debt with the Federal Government, and the Working Group on Tax Reform will hold seven more hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2024

Senate leaders and government representatives continue discussions on compensatory measures for payroll tax relief for companies and municipalities. The cost of the tax exemption is estimated to be around R$ 26 billion. The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), will meet with governo...

Zelensky in Saudi
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

On June 13 he arrived in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Zelensky met Mohammed Bin Salman or MBS as he is known. MBS is the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and effectively rules this country because his father is incapacitated. The media had not been informed in advance. MBS and Zelensky discussed peace plans...

Election Monitor V: The national elections - The birth pangs and excitement of a “True Democratic Election” process
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2024

On June 14, South Africa witnessed the excitement, the anxieties and the uncertainties inherent in a national election in which the results have no outright winner. For thirty years, the national elections were fair and transparent, yet the results were largely predictable, and the inauguration o...

Economic growth decelerates in May: more evidence
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics continued to publish its May economic statistics, and the most recent revelations confirm that the country’s economic growth gradually decelerates, albeit from high 2023 numbers, so that the 2023 growth looks not too bad. Today, the Bureau announced that in 5M24,...

A surprising decline in airline fares moderates inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jun 2024

1. Inflation in May surprised sharply on the downside due to a sharp unexpected decline in airline fares. 2. We expect inflation to reach 3.1% the coming year due to an expansionary fiscal policy, tight labor market and higher rental prices. 3. Despite May’s low CPI, a possible rate reducti...

Analysts expect only 25bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

Ten out of twelve analysts surveyed by Portfolio.hu are saying now that the Monetary Council is likely to reduce the monthly base rate cut to 25 bps at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting. The remaining two are saying that a 50 bps cut is still more likely. Until 2-3 weeks ago, the predominant analys...

Inflation surprises sharply on the downside, but is expected to accelerate going forward
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jun 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues its offensive in Rafah and missiles/drones continue to penetrate Israel from Hezbollah in the North, at generally a more intense level. Gantz announced his resignation from the government last Sunday. There appears to be little progress in reaching a cease-fire with ...

Putin offers ceasefire with Ukraine if Ukraine retreats from 4 regions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024

On June 14 Putin said the ceasefire would start today if Kyiv accepted his demands. Russia annexed 5 regions of Ukraine. It totally controls Crimea but only partly controls the other 4. If Ukraine withdraws from the remainder of these 4 regions that it currently controls, Moscow will stop fightin...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.0% amid increased confidence in financial inflows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024

The NBU Board cut the prime rate once more by 0.5 ppts to 13.0%, effective June 14. This marks the third prime rate cut since the start of the year and the seventh decrease since July 2023, when the NBU began its easing cycle. In a press release, the NBU cited still-low inflation (+0.6% m/m and 3...

Electricity tariff adjustments and CPI impact
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024 · 1 response

After the social unrest at the end of 2019, electricity rates to households were frozen. This freeze has resulted in a shortfall for the electricity companies of approx. $6 billion. Since October 2019, the electricity CPI has only increased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 25.8% rise in the headline...

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