Target up, forecast up, band out

TURKEY - Report 14 May 2026 by Murat Ucer

In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of exceptional uncertainty. After reiterating that much depended on the duration and scope of the ongoing regional conflict, the Governor explained that the revision of the (interim) target was consistent with the Bank’s earlier communication (from August 2025), which called for a change in the event of significant changes in underlying assumptions.

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