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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Mar 21
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 17
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Hungary databank Mar 21
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A provisional measure established a 15% tax on profits of multinational companies, the STF discusses whether international treaties can prevent the imposition of the IRPJ and CSLL taxes, and the municipal elections will be held on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2024
A provisional measure was published in a special edition of the Federal Official Gazette that establishes an effective tax rate of 15% on the profits of multinational companies. The tax rate applies to companies with an annual revenue of at least 750 million euros (R$ 4.5 billion). Today, the Sup...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes with Iran-Israel conflict, Saudi fiscal forecasts revised, Oman gets another rating upgrade, Abu Dhabi’s GDP rebounds in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has spiked by 9% to $78 amidst concerns about a widening Israel-Iran conflict. * Saudi Arabia revised down growth and fiscal forecasts, seeing deficits of -2.8% of GDP in 2024-27. * The Saudi PMI rebounded to the high...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions improve in the CCA in 2Q24, allowing for useful FX reserve buildup
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024
The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 2Q24 allows us to assess the overall external performance in the region in the second quarter of the year. The 2Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published this week, has shown an improving external position (for all count...
Webinar Replay - Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024
Visit our calendar page to to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update", which details economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms.
Inflation notably higher than expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2024
Consumer price inflation was 3%, m/m, in September, visibly higher than the market (around 2.2%) and our slightly higher (2.3%) forecasts, the error in our forecast largely stemming from higher-than-expected price increases in food and beverages, and transportation services. The 12-month CPI infl...
Today is the last day of the electoral campaign period on TV and radio, Haddad met with Zanin to discuss the taxation of international profits, and with Febraban's president to discuss online betting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2024
Today is the last day of the electoral campaign period on TV and radio. It is also the final day for debates between candidates running for various mayoral positions across the country. The first round of the election takes place on Sunday, October 6. Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad m...
Economic growth gradually decelerates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2024
Rosstat reported that in 8M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 5.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it increased by a mere 1.7%. This sharp deceleration was mainly caused by agriculture, as it was down y-o-y by 14.7% and 3.2%...
The prospects for economic recovery for the fourth quarter and 2025
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The past week has been particularly rich in macroeconomic information. The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) published the main quarterly indicators (GDP, unemployment and the balance of payments) for the second quarter of 2024, together with the poverty indices for the first semester (1H24). I...
Slide Presentation: Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2024
Get insight into economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update".
FinMin and Congress square off
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Oct 2024
The most interesting pistol duel of this legislature is taking place between the minister of finance and the congressional opposition. The issue at hand is a two-headed beast, composed of the 2025 budget and the so-called financing act (aka the second tax reform). The budget implicitly takes for ...
Russian macro: The 2025 budget looks reasonable but the 2024 amendments puzzle investors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024
In recent days, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma the final draft of a three-year rolling budget (2025-2027) that at a glance looked quite peculiar, although that is not unusual. As macroeconomic growth forecasts supporting the budgetary planning were usually conservative, while ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024
Sep 23 Ministry of Agriculture: The Government of Kazakhstan has upgraded the 2024 grain harvest forecast and expects to harvest at least 20 mln tons versus 13-14 mln tons earlier. Government: Kazakhstan will increase financing of the agriculture industry by 20% to $1.5 bln in 2025. Sep 24 Presid...
Moody’s has upgraded Brazil’s credit rating, the Gas Assistance Program will be reformatted to comply with the fiscal framework, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024
The credit rating agency Moody’s has upgraded Brazil’s sovereign credit rating from Ba2 to Ba1, maintaining a Positive outlook. Late yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad spoke to the press, acknowledging that achieving investment-grade status is not guaranteed, and nothing is “assured.” He...
Some good-looking fiscal data and the negative forint impact of the ugly Middle East situation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024
Starting with the bad news, the forint has just been kicked out of its cosy EURHUF 390-395 range it held for quite a while, to quite unnervingly close to the 400 line, which the MNB obviously will not want to see being crossed, for the potential, and even likely, negative impact on domestic infla...
China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024
The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...