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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

All forecasts in ruins: CPI-inflation sharply up in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2025

No forecast survives the first contact with reality, it seems, one could say paraphrasing general Moltke's famous claim, which is widely known from history. For January, the MNB predicted the headline rate of CPI-inflation at 4.6% yoy in late December. This was followed by a much more recent anal...

Israel’s deficit shrinks to 5.8% of GDP in January as revenues surge; further decline expected in 2025
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2025

Israel’s budget deficit narrows to 5.8% in January 2025 as revenues surge again amid forward payments ahead of planned tax increases The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a budget surplus of NIS 23.2 billion ($5.3 billion) in January. The trailing 12-month (TTM) budget ...

The opposition's focus in 2025 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2025

The Presidents of the Lower House and the Senate will meet with the 2025 Budget Rapporteur, Senator Ângelo Coronel (PSD-BA), and the President of the Joint Budget Committee (CMO), Deputy Júlio Arcoverde (PP-PI), to discuss the 2025 Budget. Then, they are expected to meet with Supreme Federal Cour...

Economics: Implications of an eventual imposition of tariffs on Mexican products
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2025

The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on February 1 were paused by the White House for a month as of February 3, conditioned on the "effectiveness" of measures to be implemented by the Mexican government to control the flow of drugs, mainly fentanyl, and the entry of migrants into the US. However,...

Barking up the wrong tree
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2025

The government's recent efforts to reduce food and beverage prices suggest that it believes inflation exceeding the upper limit of the target range and its acceleration are consequences of higher food prices. However, as we discuss below, a significant portion of the deterioration results fro...

President Trump announced new tariffs yesterday that will affect Brazil, there is still no agreement on the Federal Budget, and Congress leaders will discuss the parliamentary fund transfers issue this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday, February 9, that he will impose a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imported into the United States this Monday, February 10. These products are among those exported by Brazil to the U.S. There is still no agreement regarding the vote on the Fed...

Analyzing Bulgarian President Radev’s statements on the Russo-Ukrainian war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2025

• President Rumen Radev wants the EU to be actively involved in negotiations. • Radev heavily criticizes the prosecution of the war, sanctions and lack of political achievements. • Radev open to restoring Russian gas flows to Europe after a peace deal. CONTEXT On February 5, we attended the Econo...

Politics: Trump escalates threats against Mexico, including direct intervention against cartels
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2025

Mexico is closely and apprehensively watching developments in Washington given U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican exports to the United States and talk of possible intervention against drug cartels. At the last minute, the tariff threat was averted, for 30 day...

President Ramaphosa delivers the first State of the Nation Address under the new Government of National Unity
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Feb 2025

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the 2025 State of the Nation Address on February 6, marking his first address as the leader of the Government of National Unity. During his speech, he outlined several key initiatives and developments across various sectors of South Africa's socio-economic land...

Economic growth remained decent in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2025

Rosstat reported that in 2024, the country’s GDP reached R200039.5 bln and grew by 4.1%. The growth figure appeared slightly higher than our forecast and it looks as though some acceleration of economic growth occurred in December (as monthly sectoral economic statistics showed). We think that th...

Tough prospects for Daniel Noboa
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2025

By 9 pm, February 9th, with 56% of polls having been counted, President Daniel Noboa who started leading the presidential race with 6% over Luisa Gonzalez, is now down to less than 2% of difference. The sample should be pretty stable at this point thus, this difference might continue until tomorr...

On Turkey’s (political) fat tails
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2025

Having poured his heart out first in the recent quarterly/forecast report, the politics author is no mood to revisit the same old territory. Regarding “routine business,” he merely recaps the week’s developments pertinent to the main narrative, the most important of which is a “historic” statemen...

Keeping inflation at bay could be tricky
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Last January 30, 2025, the media bannered that inflation may likely fall within the target of 2-4% for the next two years. This was based on the latest BSP survey of external forecasters as contained in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Mean inflation rate was quoted at 3.1% against the central ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait budgets a large deficit, Saudi PMI soars, Sharjah issues bond, GCC opposes Trump’s Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped for a third week despite Trump’s return to maximum pressure on Iran. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI surged to 60.5, the strongest in a decade. There were dips in other Gulf states. * Fitch puts the Saudi fiscal breakeven...

Inflation Report: End-2025 forecast up, but easing cycle very likely to continue
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2025

The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank, somewhat unexpectedly, revised up its end-2025 inflation forecast already to 24% from 21% previously (midpoints), while maintaining the 5 pp band around the forecast, as well as the 12% forecast for next year (see Slides 39-4...

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