Industrial production trends remain unclear, domestic demand weakens

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 24 Apr 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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As Rosstat continues to intrigue observers, we remain puzzled about Russia’s economic trends, particularly in the industry. Earlier this year, we mentioned that, due to Rosstat’s internal regulations, the statistical agency decided to publish industrial production statistics for 2023 at fixed prices, while data for previous years were based on 2018 fixed prices. As of now, the agency has refrained from reappraising statistics published for previous years based on the new base year prices, i.e., 2023. It means that the time series for the industry as a whole, manufacturing, mining, etc., are somehow broken, and current trends remain a mystery. We expected Rosstat to resolve this puzzle, but it hasn’t happened yet. Hence, currently published m-o-m growth rates for January, February, and March 2026 for industry and its segments still do not match the y-o-y statistics offered by Rosstat. For example, Rosstat suggests that in 1Q26 industrial output grew by a mere 0.3% y-o-y, while the officially published m-o-m data from January 2025 to March 2026 would give over 5% y-o-y (with somewhat faster growth in manufacturing and slower in the mining segment). Given the degree of such a mismatch, the officially published seasonally adjusted 0.2% m-o-m increases in March and February cannot be taken as given. At this stage, we have no clear explanation of Rosstat’s thinking apart from the fact that historical data could be revised while the 1Q26 numbers remain intact. Indeed, it looks as though industrial growth slowed considerably this year as production of many products in physical terms decreased or posted very moderate y-o-y growth. In contrast, production of special vehicles, “c...