NBK kept the base rate unchanged

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 23 Jan 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate at 18.0% amid faster-than-expected economic growth and high inflation (12.3% in 2025 as a whole and 0.9% m-o-m in December), staying well above the medium-term target. The NBK’s chairperson quoted 6.5% GDP growth in 2025, i.e., the same number previously mentioned by the Prime Minister. Growth was largely driven by rapidly expanding domestic credit. Credits to households grew by 20.9% last year and by 0.8% m-o-m in December, slower than in the previous months. Some deceleration of household credit growth in December was more than offset by 3.6% m-o-m growth to non-state corporations. In 2025 as a whole, credit to state companies grew by 46.7% while to the non-state entities – by 13.8%. Overall, domestic demand looks overheated, and the NBK’s decision to hold the base rate is understandable. Monetary policy will likely remain tight for the time being.However, one of the side effects of the tightened monetary policy was an appreciation of the tenge. Currently, the USD/KZT (at around 505 mark) appears stronger not only compared to mid-2025 levels, when it was approaching 550, but even compared to January 2025. As a result, tax revenues tied to the exchange rate could be well below the government target, as the budget assumed USD/KZT at about 540 as an average annual level. If so, the republican budget might once again lack tax revenues – even amid the ongoing VAT collection reform. Early next week, we plan to publish a report offering more color on these issues.