GULF WEEKLY: Iran rejects US plan but talks mooted, Trojena ski resort cancelled, UAE developers face market stress

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 27 Mar 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Trump postponed attacks on power plants until April 6, claiming talks were progressing well.
* However, Iran rejected the US plan and is making its own maximalist demands, including reparations.
* Iran is proposing tolls for safe passage through Hormuz; Israel killed the head of the IRGC Navy.
* Talks are mooted in Pakistan between Iran’s parliament speaker and JD Vance, but not confirmed.
* The US is considering deploying 10,000 more troops and contemplating assaults on key islands.
* The UAE is reportedly willing to join a multinational naval escort.
* Iran’s foreign minister appeared to threaten GCC hotels, claiming US soldiers are staying in some.
* Brent has traded down a little this week to $104, and the premium for Gulf crudes has narrowed.
* GCC equity markets stabilized and credit default swaps eased from peaks, notably for Bahrain.
* Saudi crude exports have averaged about 3.4m so far in March, peaking around 4.5m this week.
* Over $5bn in contracts for the Trojena mountain ski resort in Neom were cancelled.
* The UAE’s 2025 fiscal surplus was 4% of GDP, despite a 11% surge in expenditure, particularly capex.
* Concerns grew for some UAE developers, with distressed sukuk and negative rating actions.
* S&P put two QatarEnergy projects, whose LNG trains were damaged, on CreditWatch Negative.
* Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO said it could take 3-4 months to restore full production after the war.
* Kuwait dismantled a third terrorist network, which it said was planning assassinations.
* Oman completed the acquisition of SalamAir.
* Bahrain’s February inflation showed a -39% fall in package holiday prices, seemingly war-related.
* Databank updates: UAE and Dubai fiscal, Bahrain and Qatar inflation, updated war fiscal model.

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