NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15% amid accelerating inflation

UKRAINE - In Brief 01 May 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
At its April 30 meeting, the NBU Board once again left the prime rate unchanged at 15%. The speeding up of inflation due to prolonged tension around the Strait of Hormuz is apparently the reason for this decision. In March, CPI was reported at +1.7% m/m or +7.9% y/y (up from +1.0% m/m or +7.6% y/y in February), with transportation costs playing the leading role in the inflation acceleration. Additionally, the NBU in its press release communicated worsened expectations on economic performance, as provisional estimates for the real sector in Q1 2026 are quite modest. The NBU estimates GDP growth in Q1 2026 at +0.2% y/y, but some indicators suggest that GDP was likely even negative at the start of the year due to intensive air strikes. Thus, the NBU revised its GDP forecast for 2026 down to +1.3% from the +1.8% projected previously. The NBU mentions that the prime rate is projected to remain unchanged until Q2 2026, but the Board does not rule out possible policy tightening if needed. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for June 18.

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