Economic growth seemingly accelerated in March, but was accompanied by statistical quirks

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 30 Apr 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Yesterday, Rosstat reported that the aggregate output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, declined y-o-y by 0.7% in 1Q26. However, in March alone it was up by 2.2% and seemingly pointed to a significant improvement in the economic situation last month, as in January and February it was visibly down.Retail sales growth soared to 6.2% y-o-y in March, pushing the 1Q26 y-o-y tally to 3.6%, as in January and February, it was up by about 2.1% y-o-y on average. Paid consumer services were up by 3.3% y-o-y in 1Q26. At a glance, it is not yet clear what drove this change in retail sales as Rosstat keeps revising its historical time series across the board every month, and it is uneasy to follow all those exercises. Some puzzles remain unresolved, and a bit more time is needed to put together all available statistical facts. We previously mentioned that aggregate industrial statistics at the moment look unusable, and to better understand the situation in industry, one has to monitor production of various products in physical terms rather than in fixed prices of some year.Meanwhile, we see some other puzzles. For instance, it is not clear why food retail sales jumped 3.1% y-o-y in March following a more moderate y-o-y growth in January (1.9%) and February (0.6%). Did it happen because of slowing inflation, or did more migrant workers arrive, and will they be pushing up economic growth in the next few months? We have no answers yet, as not all historical statistics are updated. Still, slowing inflation and stronger last month could have pushed non-food retail sales visibly up (to 9.1% y-o-y in March compared to about 3...