With a little help from my (not so close) friends

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 May 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the European Union, which favors Brazilian trade and offsets part of the difficulties faced with the United States. In this context, we revised our 2026 trade balance projection upward by USD $10 billion, reaching USD $90 billion, with the oil channel accounting for most of this revision.

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