Economics: Employment growth at the start of 2026 remains weak despite a slight uptick in economic activity

MEXICO - Report 24 Mar 2026 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

The total employed population in Mexico as of January 2026 saw weak growth of 0.4% YoY, after remaining at low growth rates throughout 2025, when it increased by an average of 0.7%. While last year the weakening of employment was in line with the overall stagnation of the economy, in January 2026 employment remained weak despite a (slight) uptick in economic activity.

A highly significant aspect is that since the second quarter of 2025, the increase in the employed population has been concentrated in the informal sector, resulting in formal employment falling by 1.2% in January of this year while informal employment grew by 1.7%. Meanwhile, workers affiliated with IMSS grew by 1.0% YoY on average in the first two months of 2026, following weak growth of 0.5% for all of 2025. The growth seen in early 2026 has been largely driven by the process of formalizing workers at digital platforms engaged in courier services, which has been more gradual than was expected at the end of last year. For the first half of the year, formal employment growth is not expected to pick up significantly, with the trend of stronger growth in informality persisting. Regarding labor income, relatively high growth rates are being maintained, but obstacles are anticipated that may prevent these levels from holding.

Reviewing the week's indicators, it was reported that the aggregate demand for goods and services increased sharply, by 4.3% YoY in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a significant improvement compared to the annual average of 1.6%.

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