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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Central Bank keeps monetary policy interest rate unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

The monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive month, according to the decision taken yesterday by the Central Bank. In August 2024, the monetary policy interest rate will be 7% per year, while the permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) and th...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2024

On July 26, the CBR decided to hike the key rate by 200 bps (to 18%), which was the upper boundary of what the market expected. The statement bythe regulator’s BoD was moderately hawkish and confirmed that further monetary policy tightening is likely - if inflation continues to accelerate. The ma...

A bigger fiscal deficit and a tragicomedy unlikely to end well
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Aug 2024 · 5 responses

The publication of the 2024 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework in June revealed some shocking developments about this year’s fiscal policy. Chief among them were a substantial shortfall in revenues, a humongous required reduction in primary spending and an increase in the year-end national central gove...

Tensions rise after Israel assassinates Hamas and Hezbollah leaders
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2024

The conflicts underway in the Middle East saw further escalation yesterday as Israeli strikes killed a Hezbollah military leader, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut, and then Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, during a visit to Iran. The killings demonstrated Israel’s substantial intelligence and milit...

Maduro clings to power
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2024 · 3 responses

Nicolás Maduro's dream of being legitimized by an electoral triumph on July 28 went up in smoke. He trusted that the advantageousness of an abusive incumbent would assure him victory, but his base betrayed him. Faced with this reality, the government opted for delegitimization and clings to power...

Surprisingly poor GDP data for Q2
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2024

Preliminary real GDP growth was -0.2% qoq, +1.3% yoy in Q2 on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, with the unadjusted yoy figure reported at +1.5%. The median expectation of analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll was +0.5% qoq, +2.3% yoy, seasonally adjusted. In our view, analysts were a bit too opt...

Domestic demand continues to increase, supportive of tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2024

Domestic demand remains fairly robust Credit card purchases (SA, in real terms, domestic) increased by 0.9% m/m in June following an increase of 0.6% in May. Trend data points to slowing growth of 3.3% saar in Q2 following 8.6% in Q1, with consumption of services up and purchases of goods down. T...

The budget challenge and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2024

On Tuesday, July 30, the government will detail the R$ 15 billion budget cuts for 2024. The Central Bank will meet to define the basic interest rate. Representatives from the Ministry of Management will meet with the regulatory agency union to discuss a strike. The Judiciary resumes its activity ...

Challenging times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2024 · 1 response

Costa Rica experienced a deceleration in several key macroeconomic indicators during H1 2024. According to latest official data, economic activity growth slowed due to a combination of external and internal factors. Externally the economic situation was stable, with low growth rates of most tradi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2024

OVERVIEW THE SHORTSIGHTEDNESS OF DEMAGOGY Encouraged by the slight improvement, within the margin of error, in the assessment of his government, especially among low-income groups, Lula jettisoned promises made after meeting with Haddad and economists sympathetic to the government and retur...

Economics: April-May indicators confirm slowing as non automotive manufacturing and exports take another hit
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2024

The most recent reading of Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) show a clear deceleration for April-May 2024, in which the annual growth rate slowed to 1.2% following expansions of 2.3% in the first quarter and 3.2% for full-year 2023. Under the impact of the deep drought that ravaged major agricult...

Politics: Mexico to face numerous unprecedented challenges in the event Trump takes power next January
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jul 2024

The fundamental idea underlying the relationship between Mexico and the United States over the last three or four decades held that the two countries need one another, with both approaching bilateral relations as complementary partners. The high probability of Donald Trump's return to the White H...

Smoothing out the transition process
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Jul 2024

The Indonesian government is currently experiencing a lengthy and smooth transition period from the Joko Widodo presidency to that of the new leader, the incoming President Prabowo Subiyanto. During this period, the two leaders have seemed to show a deep understanding as to how to move the hand-o...

Russian mercenaries killed in Mali
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jul 2024

On July 25-26 fighting against rebels to led to the deaths of at least several Wagner fighters as well as Malian soldiers. The rebel groups call themselves the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development. The Malian Army admitted to suffering 12 casualties. Social media show...

Risk of escalation weighs on markets
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jul 2024

1. The elevated risk of escalation in the North weighed on markets on Sunday and is likely to impact the shekel early this week. 2. The labor market remains tight, with strong employment growth in June. 3. Foreigners continued to reduce their government bond market share in May.

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