GULF WEEKLY: Ceasefire holds but without Hormuz transits, Bahrain signs currency swap with UAE, SWFs confirm $24bn for Warner Bros deal

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 10 Apr 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil remains elevated at about $96 as few tankers transit Hormuz, despite the ceasefire.
* Vance and Ghalibaf are headed to Pakistan for talks due tomorrow, although they could be delayed.
* Attacks on the GCC have largely ceased since Wednesday, although Kuwait reported a strike.
* Markets have rallied since the ceasefire was announced, notably Dubai equities and Bahrain debt.
* OPEC+ announced a further taper in its voluntary oil cuts and tweaked compensation plans.
* The World Bank published forecasts showing an average GCC deficit of -1.4% of GDP.
* Gulf sovereign wealth funds formalized $24bn in commitments to the Warner Bros takeover deal.
* PMIs dipped sharply in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the lowest since Covid.
* Saudi Arabia suffered strikes to its East-West Pipeline, reducing flows by 10%, and a refinery.
* Moody’s affirmed Abu Dhabi and the UAE, but revised down Abu Dhabi to a -1.7% of GDP deficit.
* Mubadala’s assets surged by 17% in 2025 to $385bn and it made $40bn in deals.
* Qatar is aiming to restart LNG production, but two LNG carriers turned away from Hormuz on Monday.
* Kuwait’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.7% in Q3-25, a three-year high (oil 2.9%, non-oil 6.5%).
* Bahrain signed a $5.4bn currency saw with the UAE. Its FX reserves were $4.7bn at end-Feb.
* Bahrain’s debt rose to about $71bn in February, and it was downgraded to B by Capital Intelligence.
* Databank updates: Kuwait GDP, World Bank forecasts, PMIs etc.

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