To what extent was China’s higher-than-expected GDP growth driven by inventory accumulation?

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 22 Apr 2026 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this report:

- China’s 5.0% GDP growth in Q1 came in above expectations, but the expenditure-side components of GDP growth all came in below expectations. Because the former is the sum of the latter, there seemed to be a discrepancy in the data releases last week.

- Part of the discrepancy may be explained by faster growth in services than in retail sales, which implies that the growth in retail sales understated consumption growth.

- Much of the discrepancy, however, may be the result of a rise in inventory accumulation that can temporarily boost growth.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Must have at least 8 characters
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2026 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.