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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The IOF decree continues to cause friction within the government, the Lower House should discuss the Propag program for Minas Gerais, and Bolsonaro’s allies continue to clash with the Supreme Federal Court (STF)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2025

The government’s decision to raise the IOF tax continues to generate friction and reactions from all sides. Hugo Motta indicated that he will bring to discussion, in the Lower House leadership meeting, a legislative decree proposal to suspend President Lula’s decree that increases the IOF. This a...

Economics: First quarter GDP and March IGAE anticipate further weakening for the remainder of the year
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2025

Last week saw the release of revised GDP data for the first quarter of 2025, which showed a 0.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth. The week also saw the IGAE for March, which reported a -0.1% annual decline. In most branches of activity, the economic indicators for March and those availa...

BoI keeps rate at 4.5%; hawkish tone, but easing later this year still possible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 May 2025

Policy decision in line with expectations The central bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on May 26th, for the eleventh consecutive meeting. This decision was in line with market expectations. Forward guidance unchanged The Bank of Israel preserved the exact same for...

Good news, bad news: a brief update to last week's monthly report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2025

Our latest monthly report was released on May 20. Here follows a list of the most important items, which have shown up since then. 1. In the report, we wrote of the decelerating trend of nominal wage growth, which is good news for inflation but bad news for growth. We referred to the fact that by...

On the eve of a scorching hot summer
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2025

President Erdogan is finally leading the charge to write a new constitution, which will incidentally grant him the right to run a third time. Yet, he is facing massive obstacles, which have not lessened despite PKK’s decision to disband. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli still don’t seem to grasp that...

The economic team announced a budget freeze, Senate President Alcolumbre announced he will hold a session of Congress on June 17 to review presidential vetoes, and the House should receive the environmental licensing bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2025

The economic team announced yesterday a freeze of R$ 31.4 billion in the 2025 budget. An amount of R$ 10.6 billion was blocked, and R$ 20.6 billion was subject to contingency. The figure was much higher than the market had anticipated. Yesterday, Senate President and head of Congress, Davi Alcolu...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait plans huge debt issuances, Gulf airlines achieve record profits, Bahrain may import Russian LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $64 on tariff worries, rising inventories and OPEC+ taper speculation. * A fifth round of US-Iran talks is underway, but Khamenei downplayed the prospects. * NEOM’s green hydrogen plant, opening next year, i...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia—Key FX flows continue to pour in as the NBG accumulates FX reserves
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 May 2025

The NBG Governor made what appeared to be a surprising statement this week, claiming that this year net FX purchases are already much higher than last year's net sales. Given that last year's net sales amounted to US$434.8mn while net purchases Jan to Mar were only US$101.7mn, net FX acquisitions...

South Africa confronts fiscal strain and global uncertainty in early 2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 22 May 2025

• South African growth: Continuing from 2023’s muted growth, the South African economy recorded another lackluster growth rate in 2024. The annual growth also came in lower than the Treasury forecast of 1.3% at the beginning of the year. The insipid growth was registered despite a marked improvem...

Not much new in the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2025

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year today. As expected, the Bank maintained its yearend inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24% (midpoint of 19-29%) and 12% (midpoint of 6-18%), respectively (as well as the 2027 forecast at 8%).

Budget cuts and spending freezes should be announced, the House approved the bill that restructures federal government career paths, and a Senate committee approved a proposal that puts an end to re-elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2025

Between today and tomorrow, budget cuts and spending freezes are expected to be announced. Yesterday, President Lula met with the Budget Execution Board to discuss the size of the cuts. Yesterday, the Lower House approved Bill 1466/25, which restructures career paths and adjusts the salaries of f...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 May 2025

The ruble kept appreciating and broke the USD/RUB80 mark. The last time this level appeared was in the spring of 2023. According to the CBR, household demand on FX shrank by over 50% y-o-y in 4M25. The demand for FX migrated to the primary market of quasi-FX bonds, actively placed in recent month...

Senate committees approved the General Environmental Licensing Bill, the Senate CCJ held a public hearing to discuss the IBS Management Committee, and the Lower House installed a special committee on AI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2025

The Senate’s Environment (CMA) and Agriculture (CRA) Committees approved the General Environmental Licensing Bill (Bill No. 2159/2021) yesterday. The text may be voted on today by the Senate floor. Yesterday, the Senate’s Constitution, Justice, and Citizenship Committee (CCJ) held a public hearin...

Social unrest significantly impacts economic activity and weakens government leverage for future reforms
PANAMA · Report · 21 May 2025

Panama is navigating a complex landscape of social unrest, fiscal challenges, and policy shifts. The economy has been hit by month‑long strikes from SUNTRACS, teachers, and banana workers—driven by grievances over the pension law reform, the proposed reopening of the copper mine, ACP’s Río Indio ...

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron: Bloomberg reported a possible 60-day extension of General License 41b which is set to expire next Tuesday, May 27th. This license gave Chevron 60 days to conclude operations in the joint ventures where it is a minority partner of Pdvsa. Althou...

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