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Parties are already strategizing for the 2026 race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025

This week, the Central Bank—now under the leadership of Gabriel Galípolo—will hold its first meeting of the year to decide the benchmark interest rate (Selic). On Saturday (February 1), members of the Lower House and Senate will elect the next presidents of their respective Houses for the 2025-20...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025

OVERVIEW OSTENSIBLE FRAILTY  Still reeling from the impact of the emergency brain surgery he underwent in December to drain a hematoma caused by a fall in October, Lula, at 79, has confided to aides that he may lack the health to run in the 2026 election. What was visible to external obser...

Bolsonaro discusses the 2026 elections, the Copom will meet this week to decide on the Selic, and the Petrobras Board of Directors will meet to discuss fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025

Last week, in an interview with CNN, former President Jair Bolsonaro stated that former First Lady Michele and his son Eduardo Bolsonaro are good options to run in the 2026 elections. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets this Tuesday and Wednesday (January 28 and 29) to deci...

Economics: Some general implications on the Mexican economy of Trump's executive orders
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2025

Some of the threats made against Mexico by then-candidate Donald Trump during his presidential campaign were converted into executive orders on the day he was inaugurated. He persists in his threats to impose an additional 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and 60% on imports from China. However, t...

No rate action expected from tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2025

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is scheduled for tomorrow. This will be the first one in 2025 and also the penultimate one chaired by the outgoing governor, Mr. Matolcsy. None of the twelve analysts asked by Portfolio.hu in their regular poll expect any rate actio...

Politics: Mexico responds to Trump’s initial measures, but is the government up for the challenge?
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2025

Donald Trump’s first measures upon assuming office on January 20 came as no surprise to Mexico, and the Mexican government and society as a whole almost unanimously condemns Trump’s tough and aggressive anti-immigrant stance. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approach has been on multiple levels: con...

More of the same in 2025?
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2025 · 1 response

2024 was a good year in Turkey’s financial markets, much more so than we had expected, as attested to by the sharp improvement in several financial indicators, most notably reserves, but not so, in terms of the hoped-for gains on the disinflation front. 2025 will be a testing year in this rega...

GULF WEEKLY: Trump demands a lower oil price and Saudi cash, MGX invests in US AI infrastructure, Oman Article IV published
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf delegations were highly visible at Davos, on panels and in their national pavilions. * Trump demanded at Davos that OPEC reduce oil prices, saying this would end the war in Ukraine. * Pending IPOs include Derayah and...

Geopolitical risks and the domestic economy: Are Chinese officials getting nervous?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Xi Jinping is fighting two fires simultaneously: the geopolitical risk of sanctions and a trade war, and a rapidly slowing domestic economy. The trade war outcome is out of his control until Trump enacts specific policies. Even then, Xi has limited retaliatory options such as restricting exports ...

Stronger GDP growth but no further disinflation in 2025-2026
HUNGARY · Forecast · 24 Jan 2025

The European gas market has weathered the initial shock of Ukraine's halting the transit of Russian gas on the first day of 2025, without any major variations in the Dutch TTF gas price. However, a recent unsuccessful attempt by Ukraine to disrupt the TurkStream gas pipeline, together with Donald...

Russian macro: muddling through in a stormy external environment
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Rosstat will soon publish the economic statistics for full-year 2024, and after that it will be a good time to have a fresh look at Russia’s economic growth perspectives in 2025 and beyond. At the same time, the recent statistical releases from the CBR and Minfin have already hinted at changes in...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inflation set to accelerate in 2025, but remain broadly contained
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Inflation fell in all CCA countries in 2024 despite above-average economic growth. Average price growth moderated from 5.4 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent in 2024. Inflation reached a bottom in 1Q24, chiefly on still powerful base effects, mainly food, but some acceleration of price growth has gra...

Israel's public debt surges to 69% of GDP in 2024. Economic implications and what’s ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

Israel's Ministry of Finance reported a sharp rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 69% in 2024, up from 61.3% in 2023 and 60.3% in 2022. Government debt-to-GDP climbed to 67.6%, with total government debt reaching NIS 1,329.3 billion by the end of 2024, compared to NIS 1,127.4 billion in 2023....

Rates lowered, statement softened
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2025

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by another 250 bps to 45% today (see chart), in line with expectations. There were not a whole lot of noteworthy changes in the statement, except for, importantly, the removal of detailed references to the monthly pace of inflation and inflati...

NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...

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