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BoI increasingly concerned regarding fiscal policy
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Aug 2024

1. Rates remained on hold this week, coupled with a hawkish tone regarding inflationary risks and fiscal concerns. 2. Private consumption rebounded in July, supporting tax revenues but also fueling inflationary pressure. 3. The MoF will lengthen the average duration of bond issuance in Sept...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s raises Oman’s outlook to Positive, Kuwait has a new finance minister, oil falls despite outages in Libya
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is trading down this week despite disruption to Libyan production because of a new political crisis. * PIF renewed a $15bn syndicated credit facility for 3-5 years. * India wants to renegotiate its UAE Cepa to mitigat...

The government will submit the 2025 budget proposal to Congress today, the STF has given a 10-day extension on the deadline for the parliamentary fund transfers issue, and Bolsonaro is organizing a protest on September 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2024

Today, the government will submit the 2025 budget proposal to the National Congress. This week, to balance the accounts, the Ministry of Planning announced a thorough review of social and pension programs, which could result in cuts of R$ 25.9 billion. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has decided ...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2024

* Ukraine makes an incursion into Russia, while Russia advances in Donbas. * Ukraine enters restricted default. * Georgia plans to ban opposition parties. * The USA plans to sanction Russia further. * Founder of Telegram arrested in France.

Rates on hold on inflation risks and fiscal concerns
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: Although the intensity of the war in Gaza appears to be winding down, a cease-fire and hostage return remain elusive. Netanyahu insists on maintaining a presence on the Philadelphia Corridor in order to prevent renewed transfer of weapons from Egypt into Gaza. Negotiations are contin...

Aug CCA Highlights: Armenian 1H GDP growth revised down, Azerbaijan gets IG status from Fitch, Uzbekistan's GDP surpasses US$100bn, Tajikistan upgraded by S&P
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Aug 2024

We comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA region in Aug: Armenia: 2Q GDP grows by 6.4% YoY Armenia: Fitch affirms Armenia at BB- with a stable outlook Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 7.75% Armenia: Inflation edges up to 1.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Bu...

The DR Central Bank reduces its monetary policy rate by 25 basis points
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

Today, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to reduce its monetary policy interest rate (MPR) by 25 basis points, decreasing from 7.00% to 6.75% annually. Likewise, the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) goes from 7.50% to 7.25% annually, while t...

Russian foreign policy: latest shifts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2024

Russian diplomatic influence has declined considerably since 2022. While Putin is keen to demonstrate that Russia has more friends than its opponents claim, Russia’s diplomatic situation is not as friendless as the EU and US like to pretend. In former Soviet Central Asia, the five nations have...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

The ruble lost about 2% against the dollar in the past two weeks. Military escalation seems to have been one of the main reasons for this move. Meanwhile, the ruble has moved closer to its fundamentally justified level. Interestingly, the spread between CNY/RUB on the exchanges and OTC started to...

Independence Day 2024
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Aug 2024

The Indonesian economy posted another encouraging growth result for Q2 2024 at 5.05%, slightly below the 5.11% annual growth of Q1 2024. That rate of growth was achieved prior to the celebration of Indonesian Independence on August 17, 2024 in two venues: Jakarta and the new capital Nusantara, in...

Lula nominated Galípolo to replace Campos Neto as president of the Central Bank, the STF suspended the trial on the ISS tax case, and the House approved an update to tourism legislation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2024

President Lula has nominated the Central Bank's Director of Monetary Policy, Gabriel Galípolo, for the presidency of the institution. Galípolo would replace Roberto Campos Neto, whose term ends on December 31. His appointment will need to be confirmed in the Senate. Yesterday, the Supreme Federal...

No major change in trends: economic growth remains decent, albeit uneven across segments
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

Rosstat reported that in 7M24, the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, trade, and transportation) grew by 5.8% y-o-y – not bad a result, even though the y-o-y growth was higher in 1H24 (6.1%). Rosstat revised ...

The MPO will outline its spending review today, the fund transfers conflict has postponed several votes in Congress, and the STF agenda includes two topics with significant fiscal impact
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2024

Today, the Ministry of Planning and Budget (MPO) will detail its spending review agenda in a press conference. The government aims to save around R$ 26 billion in 2025. The conflict in Congress over parliamentary fund transfers is stalling the resumption of voting in the House on the second Tax R...

Rates on hold on inflation acceleration and elevated risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Aug 2024

Rates were on hold today as expected, With the BoI noting that inflation is on an upward trajectory, especially service price inflation. There are “several risks for a possible acceleration in inflation: geopolitical developments and their impact on economic activity, shekel depreciation, prolong...

Kazakhstan macro budget performance, macroeconomic policy: history repeats itself in 2024, but is likely to change going forward
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Ministry of Finance recently released 7M24 budgetary statistics and the government's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, confirming that tax revenues remained far from perfect in July, as the government accumulated only 44.1% of the annual planned revenues in the consolidated budget in 7M24. T...

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