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GULF WEEKLY: US tariffs threaten aluminum exporters, Saudi deficit is as expected, Kuwait plans bonds, Lebanon forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminum will hurt Gulf exporters. They are already subject to 25% on steel. * The GCC states are unlikely to be priority targets for Trump’s mooted “reciprocal” tariffs. * As Trump engages with Russ...

Haddad believes there is room for negotiation with the US regarding tariffs, today Haddad travels to the Middle East for the IMF Conference, and next week the STF will resume deliberations on an appeal on nepotism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2025

The Brazilian government has been cautious regarding the tariffs announced by the United States. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that the best approach at the moment is to wait, as he believes there is room for negotiation. Today, Haddad is traveling to the Middle East, where he will part...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tourism statistics in Georgia defy political crisis
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Feb 2025

Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been a cash cow for the economy, having brought on average about 8 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2023. Naturally, then, the events of the last year with the adoption of the Transparency Law (foreign agents law) and the disputed Parliamentary elections have...

Unpegging the Hong Kong dollar peg
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Given the difficult state of Hong Kong’s economy, and more broadly its role in the world, it is not surprising that we are seeing speculation about how the city will refashion itself under tighter mainland control. There are concerns about the direction of the economy; the strength of its pillar ...

Slide presentation - North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Get insight into the tariff issues between the U.S. and Mexico with the slide presentation from our webinar "North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico". The US administration agreed to pause the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect in early February for Canada and Mexico for 30 day...

Institutional Relations Minister Padilha outlined the government’s legislative priorities, Lula criticized the federal agency Ibama regarding oil exploration in the Amazon, and truckers issued a statement about a possible strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Yesterday, the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, presented the federal government's priorities to the President of the Lower House, Deputy Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), during a meeting in the deputy’s office, alongside party leaders. The agenda is divided into six pillars. ...

"Peace for Our Time": Trump talks to Putin—will history repeat itself?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025

The ballet of peace negotiations is intensifying. Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, claiming that the Russian leader wants peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly stated that he does not believe Ukraine will regain its 2014 borders and ru...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025

Market sentiment improved significantly in the past two weeks as investors started to speculate on a possibility of de-escalation in Ukraine. The conversation between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin was considered an important indicator of the high likelihood of this scenario. As a result, the ruble appr...

Economic activity in January looks uneven across segments as statistics sends puzzling signals
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Feb 2025

The National Bureau of Statistics began publishing its regular macroeconomic statistics for January, and some data appear surprising. For instance, passenger transportation continued to grow fast in January (by 15.0% y-o-y) having increased by 13.8% in 2024 as a whole. Freight transportation grew...

An AtlasIntel poll confirms President Lula’s approval ratings have declined, Haddad announced that the government has increased its projection for savings this year, and Minister Padilha will meet with allied parties
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Feb 2025

A poll released yesterday by AtlasIntel confirms a decline in President Lula’s (PT) approval ratings. For the first time since the start of Lula’s third term, his disapproval ratings surpassed approval beyond the margin of error, which is two percentage points. Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernand...

Federal budget performance in January hints that economic growth gradually decelerates, inflation to remain high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that the Federal Budget was in deficit in January despite the fact that its total revenues grew by 11.4%, i.e., above inflation, albeit not much. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues were up by 16.8% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues increased by 9.3% y-o-y, which was below inf...

Haddad said the government will wait for concrete measures before setting retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., Haddad will meet with leaders to discuss the economic agenda, and the pace in Congress should pick up after Carnaval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2025

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad commented on Donald Trump’s announcement to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, stating that the Brazilian government has decided to wait for concrete measures before making any official response. Today, Fernando Haddad will meet with Sena...

Ministry of Finance launches public debt buyback offer
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Feb 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced that the Dominican Republic has initiated a voluntary public debt buyback offer. The offer will remain open until Feb 14, 2025. This operation covers two groups of bonds: those regulated under Dominican law and those governed by international regulations. Among t...

All forecasts in ruins: CPI-inflation sharply up in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2025

No forecast survives the first contact with reality, it seems, one could say paraphrasing general Moltke's famous claim, which is widely known from history. For January, the MNB predicted the headline rate of CPI-inflation at 4.6% yoy in late December. This was followed by a much more recent anal...

Israel’s deficit shrinks to 5.8% of GDP in January as revenues surge; further decline expected in 2025
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2025

Israel’s budget deficit narrows to 5.8% in January 2025 as revenues surge again amid forward payments ahead of planned tax increases The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a budget surplus of NIS 23.2 billion ($5.3 billion) in January. The trailing 12-month (TTM) budget ...

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