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Industry further down, retail sales further up: nothing changed in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

In January, industrial output grew by 0.8% mom, but it fell by 3.9% yoy, the latter after -7.8% yoy in December and -4.3% yoy in the whole of Q4 2024, all in seasonally and day-adjusted volume terms. The moderate uptick in January could be somewhat promising, even if not exactly the jump start of...

More evidence on growth deceleration in January, but questions remain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

In addition to recently published industrial statistics that hinted at the possibility of a sudden deceleration of economic growth, Rosstat recently provided more color on the matter. According to the statistical service, the output of the five basic sectors (B5 represents industry, agriculture, ...

NBU raises prime rate to 15.5% amid high inflation, depreciation pressures, and growing tensions with U.S.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

The NBU Board has predictably raised the prime rate for the third time, increasing it by 1.0 ppt to 15.5%, effective March 7. Additionally, the NBU adjusted the 'working' rates for the banking system by 1 ppt. On top of that, it widened the spread by 1.0 ppt between the prime rate and the three-m...

Another 250 bps cut, more in store
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2025

The MPC/CBRT reduced the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 250 bps today, in line with expectations, including ours, to 42.5%. In terms of the content of the statement (link here), there was not a whole lot new. The statement began by noting that “the underlying trend of inflation decreas...

Macro risks remain lower than in 2024, but optimism weakens
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Mar 2025

Geopolitical risks in 2025 remain significantly lower compared to 2024. The ceasefire in Lebanon is holding, with the new government demonstrating a strong commitment to its continuation. At this stage, there are no immediate signs of escalation from Syria, and the Iranian axis appears to be weak...

Elusive inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Mar 2025

GlobalSource Partners Philippines has been monitoring and analyzing domestic inflation in the Philippines, its dynamics and directions. Its focus has been to assess the appropriateness of monetary policy settings on the evolving inflation trend, rather on any point observation or estimate of next...

Are there behind the scenes negotiations?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Mar 2025

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell says Trump does not aspire to a regime change in Venezuela, but Trump acceded to the aspirations of the hardline anti-Maduro in the US Congress by revoking General License 41 (LG 41), which governs Chevron's operations in Venezu...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Mar 2025

Feb 19 KMG: The company and Hungarian MOL group (Multinational Oil and Gas) will discuss further details and conditions of testing supplies of Kazakh oil to Hungary. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakh diplomats will discuss the attack on CPC with Ukraine. National railways: China will invest CNY...

Israel's wage growth slows to 2% in January, easing inflation concerns
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Mar 2025

In January 2025, wage growth in Israel slowed to a year-over-year increase of 2.0%, following an increase of 4.5% in December and a modest 0.9% increase in November. This marks a decline compared to the average 5.5% increase in April-October 2024 (see the chart below). We attributed the slowdown ...

South Africa’s economy posts modest 0.6% growth—both quarterly and annually
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Mar 2025

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) indicate that South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.6% q/q in the final quarter of 2024, following a contraction of 0.1% q/q during the third quarter. The positive growth in fourth quarter real GDP came largely on the back of the rebo...

Ahead of a special European Council meeting on March 6; where does Hungary stand?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Mar 2025

Amidst the political whirlwind of recent days, created and actively fuelled by the US president around Ukraine/Russia/Europe and a potentially destructive trade war due to his new penalty-level tariffs on various items in various directions, it may be useful to establish where Hungary's governmen...

China’s “DeepSeek” tech rebound
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Mar 2025

The success of DeepSeek along with Xi Jinping’s meeting with technology firms has caused a rally in Chinese tech stocks. DeepSeek’s ability to create a sophisticated AI engine with minimal chip hardware has been taken as sign of China’s ability to improve on western technology at a much lower pri...

Kazakhstan macro: gradually increasing trade with Europe to remain an important GDP driver
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Mar 2025

A few weeks ago, we briefly broached the evolution of the 2024 aggregate structure of Kazakhstan's balance of payments and some issues related to the recent volatility of the tenge. In this report, we concentrate on some details of foreign trade statistics that provide additional color on economi...

Economics: February indicators reveal further slowing of economic activity on a mix of domestic factors and external threats
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2025 · 2 responses

This week’s review of the news of the past month provides plenty of evidence of a further slowing of economic growth. Industrial activity contracted in December, and GDP growth sputtered to only half a percentage point in the fourth quarter, with services the only sector with relative growth that...

Inflation accelerates, base rate hike is likely in March
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Mar 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, inflation m-o-m accelerated to 1.5% (versus 1.1% m-o-m in January). The y-o-y tally climbed to 9.4% (versus 8.9% in January). Prices rose across the board – for services, food, or non-food items. The latter implies that the main reason ...

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