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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Judicial reform advances but conflicts continue, with major potential consequences
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Morena and AMLO’s much touted judicial reform has passed the legislative procedural hurdles, and the National Electoral Institute (INE) has agreed to organize the election of judges, justices, magistrates, with the first election slated for next June. However, the fight is far from over, and the ...

Lira has scheduled a Congressional session for this week with virtual attendance, the FPE will meet with Barreirinhas to discuss the 15% tax on multinationals, and the CAE holds a public hearing to discuss the impact of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

The President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has scheduled a Congressional session for this week but has allowed for virtual attendance. In other words, the session can be attended remotely by the deputies. Today, the Parliamentary Front for Entrepreneurship (FPE) will meet with the Special S...

Battles in the runoff, the right-wing's unity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Senator Eduardo Braga is expected to present the work schedule for the regulation of Tax Reform (PLP No. 68/24). The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) continues to hold public hearings to discuss the topic. The National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) may open a public consultation on the ...

You Reap What You Sow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Oct 2024

Recently, the Treasury has faced difficulties in placing fixed-rate or inflation-linked bonds, as their prices embed a high-risk premium. As a result, the share of Selic-linked bonds has grown rapidly, worsening the composition of public debt by reducing maturities and increasing sensitivity to i...

The Deputy Governor hints at possible tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2024

1. Rates remained on hold last week, with the Deputy Governor sounding rather hawkish compared to the Governor. 2. The fiscal deficit pushed higher in September but is expected to reach 7.2% GDP this year. 3. Economic growth accelerated in Q324 (exports especially), with expectations for so...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

Oct 3 Borrowings: Kazakhstan placed sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln at a 4.717% yield. The demand was strong as issuance was oversubscribed by a factor of 4. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will provide the largest compensation for oil overproduction within OPEC+ in October  Oct 6 President: A con...

The Deputy Governor sounds more hawkish than the Governor
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2024

Geopolitics: Israel continues to push on with its ground operation into Lebanon, while missiles into Israel’s North (including the Haifa area) continue at a high intensity. Israel continues to attack parts or Northern Gaza as well. The Israeli retaliation against Iran appears imminent, with the m...

Think global, act local
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2024

After pondering at length developments in the Middle East, Ukraine war and the US presidential elections, the political analyst has decided to dedicate a major portion of his contribution to this monthly report to potential exogenous shocks, which would completely wreck Mehmet Simsek’s Economic S...

The order of factors does affect the product: a defeat for the Executive in the Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024 · 1 response

This week, the Executive Branch presented its proposal for the 2025 national budget to the Legislative Branch, which was challenged on Thursday by the Budget Commission for three reasons: (1) it was not submitted on time, as the Constitution (Article 184) requires the proposal to be sent within t...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil remains elevated over Iran strike fears, Bahrain’s GDP growth slows in Q2, Wynn receives gambling license in UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude held at around $78 amidst ongoing conflict concerns. * Iran reportedly warned Gulf states of retribution if they facilitate an Israeli attack. * UK investments: PIF buys 40% of Selfridges, ADIA writes down 10%...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge correction looks healthy and will stabilize tax flow in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently reported that tax revenues of the National Fund amounted to KZT2.980 trln in 9M24, i.e., about 50% of the annual plan (KZT5.957 trln). In 8M24, the government accumulated KZT2.863 trln (48.1% of the plan). As one can see, revenue flow remained sluggish in...

Electoral campaigns for the municipal run-offs resume on TV and radio, the STF will adjudicate two cases regarding taxes, and next week Senator Braga is expected to submit a timeline for the regulation of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2024

Today, electoral campaigns on TV and radio will resume in the 52 municipalities where a run-off will take place. The campaigns will run until October 25, and the run-off is scheduled for October 27. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin a virtual plenary session to determine whether t...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How did Armenia and Georgia manage to grow their economies by a fifth in 2022-2023?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Oct 2024

We have on a number of occasions underlined the strong growth performance that Armenia and Georgia have enjoyed over the last couple of years. This has helped boost their standing in the GDP-per-capita ranking in the CIS space. Both countries have delivered an impressive 20% real GDP growth over ...

CIS heads of state meeting in Moscow on Putin’s birthday
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024

On October 7, the leaders of the CIS countries gathered in Novo-Ogaryovo, the suburban residence of the Russian President in Moscow Oblast to meet and celebrate Vladimir Putin’s 72nd birthday. The CIS, or Commonwealth of Independent States is a regional intergovernmental organization led by Russi...

The anti-STF agenda made progress in the House, the Ministry of Finance is considering creating a minimum tax for millionaires, and there will be a press conference on the regulation of digital platforms today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The anti-Supreme Federal Court agenda has made progress in the Lower House. The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved the admissibility of Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) 28/24, which allows Congress to suspend decisions made by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). In other news, ...

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