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Lula defends alternative to dollar during China visit, Congress prepares for income tax reform debate amid fiscal constraints, and US-China trade truce begins impacting global markets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2025

President Lula begins his return trip to Brazil today, after making official visits to Russia and China. In the final leg of the trip, Lula advocated for countries to find “a currency or a basket of currencies that allows business to be conducted without depending on a single currency,” referring...

Powerful growth rebound in March shouldn’t raise expectations
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 14 May 2025

Economic activity growth in March was notably better than in the previous four months. The Central Bank reported a y/y increase of 5.4% in the monthly level of economic activity. But this figure should not raise hopes that the economy will experience a significant growth acceleration in the comin...

Slide Presentation - Panama in Focus: US Relations, Canal Strategy and Fiscal Discipline
PANAMA · Presentation · 14 May 2025

How will US-Panama relations and US tariffs impact Panama’s economy? What strategy will be applied to the Panama Canal amid disruptions in global commerce? What's ahead for fiscal policy? Will Panama be able to navigate these challenges and protect its growth and investment grade? Get insight int...

Lula secures Chinese investments during the CELAC forum, Brazil negotiates a TikTok data center project tied to energy infrastructure, and the opposition files a request for a Joint CPI on the INSS fraud
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2025

President Lula continues his official agenda in China. Yesterday, May 12, Apex Brasil announced that R$ 27 billion in investments in Brazil were secured from Chinese companies. The government highlighted investment commitments from automaker GWM and the Chinese delivery platform Meituan. The Mini...

Economics: First quarter public finances surprisingly favorable yet unsustainable for the rest of the year, with scant room to contain spending
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2025

Mexico's public finances delivered favorable results in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a substantial increase in non-oil tax revenues (real annual +17.8%) and a contraction in public spending (real annual -5.9%), a performance facilitated by calendar effects. But despite such a positive sho...

Israel’s April budget data support deficit target; bond issuance pace expected to slow
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 May 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 11.15 billion ($3.145 billion) in April, with the trailing 12-month deficit improving to 5.1% of GDP, down from5.2% in March and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. The improvement reflects strong tax revenues in January and February—partly d...

Brazil edges toward the Russia-China axis and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2025

The Lower House will have a lighter week, with remote sessions. The bill reforming the legal framework for public concessions may arrive in the Senate. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is set to analyze tax-related matters and the Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI) concerning the allocation o...

Politics: The current state of democracy in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2025

There is rising concern in Mexico that the country’s democracy is in danger. The current debate was sparked by a magazine article and interview granted by Ernesto Zedillo in which the former president declared that Mexican democracy is dead and that the country is moving toward an authoritarian a...

All eggs in one basket
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2025

The appreciation of the Brazilian real in 2025 is good news for inflation control. However, the total impact of this appreciation on prices seems to depend on the real’s dynamics against currencies other than the dollar. Although most Brazilian imports are denominated in U.S. dollars, export pric...

Lula deepens the international agenda with China and CELAC, Congress slows as key leaders travel abroad, and the INSS crisis and Supreme Court tax rulings shape the domestic focus
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2025

After a busy week in Brasília, the coming days are expected to be quieter. President Lula, ministers, and several members of Congress are attending events abroad. President Lula, who was in Russia last week, arrived in China on Saturday and will take part in the 4th China-CELAC Forum. CELAC is th...

Russian macro: Evolving foreign trade payments trim budget revenues
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2025

A few days ago, the Russian Ministry of Finance reported that 4M25 federal budget revenues reached R12.274 trln, i.e., up by 5.0% y-o-y. The figure appears unimpressive amid over 10% y-o-y inflation. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues shrank by 10.3% y-o-y to a mere R3.727. Non-O&G revenues grew by 13.5%...

Is the worst over yet?
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2025

While it is not officially announced, Turkey’s number one public enemy, PKK almost certainly said farewell to arms. While from the standpoint of the military-intelligence establishment, the terror threat will not cease until Syrian Kurds dissolve into the Syrian central administration, Messrs. Er...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits widen, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP slows, OPEC+ speeds taper, Flynas IPO announced
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 May 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will boost output by 0.4 b/d in June, but the oil price still rose to $64 on US-China talks. * The US will fast-track some GCC investments and could ease AI chip export limitations. * Saudi Arabia recorded a -5% of ...

The government responds to the INSS fraud after a viral backlash, the STF prepares to rule on key tax cases, and Lula travels to Russia and China with a diplomatic agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2025

The government reacted, albeit belatedly, and announced yesterday, May 8, a series of measures being taken to address the fraud at the National Social Security Institute (INSS) and to help beneficiaries recover the amounts that were unduly deducted. INSS President Gilberto Waller announced that 2...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian Dream in the driver's seat six months before the local elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 May 2025

Six months after the Oct Parliamentary vote, the post-election environment in Georgia has evolved in line with my (at the time) counter-consensus forecast, in which I argued before the ballot day: "In short, in my view, there will be a four-step process, including: 1) a simple majority win for G...

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