Miserable new world

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Sep 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The 2014-2016 recession is different from previous downturns due to the delay in the recovery and by the persistent departure from the pre-crisis path. Several counterfactuals, obtained using HP and Kalman filters, indicate that 2026 GDP would be, depending on the case, 15% to 27% below the level it would have reached had the previous trend been maintained. In addition, although growth in 2022-2026 reached 2.9% per year, its sustainability is doubtful. Productivity advanced less than before 2014, while much of the recent expansion stemmed from the decline in unemployment and the recovery in participation, impulses that cannot be repeated indefinitely. Demographics and productivity suggest potential growth close to 1.7% per year under optimistic assumptions.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Must have at least 8 characters
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2026 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.