Mulino confirms Cobre Panama will not operate under a contract-law framework approved by the National Assembly

PANAMA - In Brief 01 Jul 2026 by Marco Fernandez

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President José Raúl Mulino used his address at the opening of the National Assembly’s legislative session to clarify one key point on Cobre Panama: the legal mechanism for a potential reopening will not be a contract law and, therefore, will not be submitted to the National Assembly for approval, confirming our expectation that the government will avoid the politically toxic route used in 2023 and instead seek a state-led ownership structure. That was the only concrete signal in the address regarding the mine. Mulino did not announce a reopening date, an operational timetable or a detailed roadmap for the Donoso project. He only reiterated that the government had created a three-minister commission to evaluate the environmental audit and the broader implications of the project, and indicated that he expects its recommendations to be completed soon. In our view, the most likely vehicle remains a state-owned mining company, probably CODEMIN, which would hold ownership of the mining assets and subcontract the technical and operational management of the project to First Quantum Minerals. We also do not expect the government to seek National Assembly approval for the reactivation or use of CODEMIN through a new law. Instead, the Administration is likely to explore an executive or administrative route based on the existing legal framework, consistent with Mulino’s objective of avoiding both the Assembly bottleneck and the reputational burden of another contract law. The market implication is cautiously positive but limited. Mulino’s statement confirms our view that reopening is not imminent. A CODEMIN-led structure may be the most politically viable route, but it is not a ri...