BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Four shocks and a funeral
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2026
The Minutes of last week´s Copom meeting reinforces the mismatch between the diagnosis of the inflation outlook and the monetary policy reaction, which was already present in the statement released back then. Anticipating the conclusion, even though BCB correctly perceives the deterioration of th...
Riding the oil wave
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Nov 2026
The trade surplus should exceed USD 85 billion in 2026 and in 2027, supported by rising exports and imports contained by the slowdown in activity. A significant part of this result comes from oil, favored by higher prices. Regarding remaining exports the effect of US tariffs has been relatively s...
You talk the talk; do you walk the walk?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2026
As expected, Copom unanimously decided to keep the target for the Selic rate at 13.75% per year. Consistent with the decision, there are several elements with a clearly more hawkish tone regarding the assessment of the situation. At the same time, however, these elements are softened by the re...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2026
TURBULENCE AHEAD As the information brought by Lula’s surprising re-election is processed and the political world moves into the new configuration of the board, the most relevant vectors in defining the coming months and years begin to be outlined, revealing a picture of uncertainty ahead. Names...
Expensive and Inefficient
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026
General government expenditure in Brazil, excluding interest and transfers, amounts to 18.3% of GDP, above the median for both emerging economies and Latin American countries. Yet the return on this spending is low. Basic public services, such as education, healthcare and public security, fall sh...
The political cycle inversion exacts its (steep) price
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026
Lula faces an unfavorable scenario in his bid for re-election. The economy is slowing down, despite the enormous stimuli, and inflation remains high, while billions are spent by the government to artificially contain fuel prices. Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro in a narrow lead, which could be larger...
The ball is in Flávio Bolsonaro's court
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro is the frontrunner for the Presidency and, if elected, should count on support in Congress to pass important reforms. The market reacted well to the result, but sustaining this optimism depends on the new government taking advantage of the set of proposals already debated by civi...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026
The 2026 election for President of the Republic brought frustration to those concerned about the growing mismatch between the country's potential and the paltry results reaped during the last administrations. Increasingly polarized, these administrations had presidents who governed for "their own...
Chronicle of a fiasco foretold
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Sep 2026
The government’s new budget forecasts indicate that the fiscal framework rules should be met in 2026, with the help of a spending freeze. However, in recent years, this has only been possible because the government lowered the targets, expanded deductions and resorted to parafiscal measures. On t...