BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Reality knocks at the door
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2026
GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter, well below the figure recorded in the first quarter of 2026, although slightly better than the average forecast of 0.4%, suggesting an economic slowdown, a theme to which we had drawn attention in our most recent reports. In recent quarters, the economy has...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026
WHAT HAUNTS LULA IS THE DREAM OVER? - Just over one month before the election, the undefined picture is beginning to take shape, albeit still incipiently. Lula, whose government rejection rate is similar to its approval rate, is moving farther away from a fourth term; his best chance would be ...
The Half Empty Glass
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026
Gross public debt is expected to reach 83% of GDP by year-end, largely due to interest expenses. The real interest rate, however, is also a result of fiscal policy, which has affected the cost of debt at both short and long maturities. The recent increase in long-term international interest rates...
Heavy burden
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026
Economic activity slowed more than anticipated despite several stimulus measures announced for this year, concentrated in particular on credit extension. We see two kinds of limitations. First, the credit channel depends on institutions that select borrowers according to their own criteria, which...
Continuous cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2026
The Copom Minutes are, overall, more dovish than its previous version pertaining to the June meeting. Even so, although we expect the Selic rate target reach 13.75% per annum at the end of the year, that is, 0.25 p.p. below its current level, we do not have sufficient elements to determine whethe...
Contradictory signals
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Aug 2026
Real wage decline in the second quarter comes in the context of an unemployment rate still near historical lows. This behavior of real income was not driven solely by inflation, which did in fact accelerate in the second quarter, but rather by a sharp slowdown in nominal wages. However, with a ti...
Lost horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2026
Once again, there was no surprise in the decision regarding the target for the Selic rate, which, we believe, may be an important part of the current monetary policy problem. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 p.p., to 14% per year, and “understands ...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2026
THE FROGS AND THE SCORPION As the nominal public deficit reached 10% of GDP in the 12 months ended in June, what previously concerned only economists, part of the financial market, and a few politicians has spilled over into broader circles, reaching the electoral arena.
High Tide
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2026
Brazilian long-term real interest rates remain high, and a significant share of the recent increase originates from external factors. There is a stable long-run relationship between Brazilian and U.S. interest rates, with the latter having risen substantially since 2022. The interest rate spread ...