BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
What goes around, comes around (with interest)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 May 2025
The Bimonthly Revenue and Expenditure Report indicates that the National Treasury’s financing need in 2025 will reach BRL 76 billion, BRL 47 billion above the amount originally projected in the Annual Budget Law (LOA). Despite official rhetoric, it is clear that the government’s goal is merel...
Beyond the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 May 2025
The Central Bank has likely come to the end of the monetary tightening cycle, or has reached very close to it, even as its own inflation forecasts remain above target for the relevant horizon. Moreover, these forecasts—highly dependent on demand behavior—still appear optimistic, based on the assu...
Blow hot and cold
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2025
The minutes from last week’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting sounded more ambiguous than the statement released at the time. The tone of the original document, which by design is much less detailed than the minutes, suggested a high probability that the Committee would opt to maintain t...
All eggs in one basket
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 May 2025
The appreciation of the Brazilian real in 2025 is good news for inflation control. However, the total impact of this appreciation on prices seems to depend on the real’s dynamics against currencies other than the dollar. Although most Brazilian imports are denominated in U.S. dollars, export pric...
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2025
Copom provoked no surprise with its decision to hike the target for the benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, from 14.25% to 14.75% per year. However, more than the decision itself, the main interest of “Copom Watchers” lay in the possible signaling regarding the next steps in moneta...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 May 2025
OVERVIEW Lula's plans face a hostile reality The Lula administration has found its helmsman in marketing strategist-turned-minister Sidônio Palmeira, making it clear that everything will be done to ensure the PT remains in power beyond 2027. This plan, however, will face serious challenges,...
Inflation: bad now, higher uncertainty ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025
In recent months, there has been an acceleration in underlying inflation measures and an increase in the diffusion index. Industrial goods prices have also accelerated, reflecting the depreciation of the real throughout 2024. Since exchange rate pass-through occurs with a lag, it is possible that...
Exports: macro vs micro
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025 · 1 response
The WTO projects a 0.2 % drop in global trade volume in 2025, and the decline could be larger if reciprocal tariffs materialize—prompting downward revisions to Brazil’s export outlook. In addition, a slowing world economy is likely to push many commodity prices lower, as seen in recent weeks. The...
Requiem for the fiscal framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025
The federal government has sent the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2026 to Congress, outlining the broad contours of next year’s budget, as well as projecting public accounts through the middle of the next administration, in 2029.