Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESP


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Recent Country Insights

Tighter Than It Seems
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jul 2024

The labor market suggests that the economy is operating close to or, more likely, above its potential. At the same time, aggregate demand has reacted to the fiscal impulse, largely associated with income transfers, which, together with increasing labor income, maintain high consumption levels. Ad...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jul 2024

OVERVIEW RADICALIZATION AND UNCERTAINTY It was necessary for Brazil to experience a much worse performance than emerging markets in general, as the Real weakened to R$ 5.70 per dollar, while expectations for both interest rates and inflation increased significantly, for President Lula to pu...

Up, Up and Away: Inflationary Impulses Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

Recent inflation dynamics are showing unfavorable signs that require attention. IPCA-15 underlying measures accelerated, and the pressure is expected to continue, reflecting an economic activity close to or above full employment. Simultaneously, the depreciation of the real causes an additional s...

Much Ado About Nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jun 2024

Decree 12.079 has been published, establishing the legal framework for changing the methodology of inflation target measurement: instead of verifying whether the target has been met (i.e., whether the observed inflation was within the tolerance range defined by the National Monetary Council, CMN)...

Promises That Cannot Be Kept
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2024

In line with the statement released last week, when Copom announced the decision to halt the monetary easing cycle and maintain the Selic rate target at 10.50% per year, the Minutes of the meeting came out quite harsh, signaling no room for a reduction in the basic interest rate in the coming mon...

Reality Check
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2024

Domestic demand will continue to lead growth throughout the year, as it did in the first quarter, while GDP is near or above potential. Thus, we expect part of the additional demand to be met through increased imports (and/or reduced exports) and that GDP growth in 2024, also reflecting the negat...

Webinar Replay - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook. What is the Central Bank of Brazil signaling about the future of the country's monetary policy? How will the increasing inflation expectations b...

Temporary Relief in the Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

This time there were no surprises as the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided, as expected, not only to maintain the target for the benchmark interest rate at 10.5% per year but also did so unanimously, scaling down – at least for now – fears of another divided decision, which...

Slide Presentation - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

Get insight into Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".

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