BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The Mencken theorem
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2026
The persistence of high interest rates has led to proposals to raise Brazil’s inflation target, currently set at 3%. It is argued that, due to inflation inertia, still a legacy of the hyperinflationary period, the Central Bank faces difficulties in reducing the Selic rate. This idea is mistaken. ...
Of mountains and mice
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jun 2026
A new round of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products, if implemented, should have only a modest macroeconomic effect. We estimate that the measures would reduce Brazilian exports by between US$0.8 billion and US$2.8 billion, a small amount compared with the approximately US$360 billion exported annu...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026
Weak governments, captured by group interests and incapable of confronting financial innovations — such as cryptocurrencies and fintechs — with proper regulation, have fostered the widespread growth of organized crime in Brazil and Latin America. The new phase, initiated after the “blackout” in p...
High consumption, low productivity: the Central Bank’s dilemma
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2026
GDP grew in line with expectations, 1.1%, far stronger than observed during the second half of 2025, when the economy remained stagnant. From the supply perspective, the highlights were once again agriculture and the mineral extraction to which we can also add construction. Although we include th...
On the wrong side
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026
At the beginning of the month, the federal government announced Novo Desenrola Brasil, a program aimed at household debt restructuring through discounts and lower interest rates. The program, however, is not isolated and is now part of a broader set of measures intended to stimulate consumption t...
The name of the rose
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026
We recently published a report in which we argued that inertia in inflation expectations results, at least in part, from the Central Bank's own policy stance. By adopting a strategy that favors the slow convergence of inflation to the target, that is, over a period longer than the so-called "rele...
The weight of inertia
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 May 2026
The inflation scenario has been marked by both the oil shock, which pushed up inflation expectations even at longer horizons, and resilient economic activity featuring a still tight labor market. Meanwhile, by extending the horizon for inflation convergence to the target, the Central Bank has con...
For Whom the Bell Tolls?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2026
Copom rightly expresses discomfort with the rise in long-term inflation expectations in response to the oil shock, whose effects should dissipate before affecting inflation at more distant horizons. We argue in this report that this pattern results from the Central Bank’s stance since 2021, marke...
With a little help from my (not so close) friends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2026
Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the ...