BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025
OVERVIEW LULA AND THE EFFECTS OF HIS “BODY OF WORK” ON THE ELECTIONS Several factors have triggered a pendulum movement in expectations for next year’s presidential elections. The right suffered a major setback with Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attem...
Mind the gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025
The Central Bank maintained its inflation projection for the relevant horizon, despite exchange rate appreciation and the slowdown in economic activity. One factor behind this decision was the upward revision of output gap estimates, reflecting the stronger-than-expected labor market dynamics. Th...
Should I stay or should I go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response
Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...
The other deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025
The balance of payments has been marked by a rapid increase in the current account deficit, while the financial account remains relatively stable. Most of the deterioration in the current account stems from rising imports in a context of demand pressures, but there is also a worsening in some ser...
A budget made in Hogwarts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The administration has proposed a budget that, under optimistic assumptions, would result in a primary deficit of 0.17% of GDP in 2026. The projections rely on favorable revenue scenarios, which depend both on supportive economic conditions and on the approval by Congress of politically sensitive...
The consequences come afterwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2025
GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly above average forecasts, 0.3%, but on top of a revised expansion in the first quarter, from 1.4% to 1.3%, that is, broadly in line. Compared to the same period last year, growth reached 2.2%, accumulating 2.5% in the first half of the year and 3.2% ov...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response
The Brazil Synthesis is a monthly overview of the Brazilian economy, with commentary and charts. The report begins with a timely topical overview, and charts provide a snapshot of the economy. Uncertainty is the name of the game Tarcísio strikes the right tone, the PCC suffers a setback: ...
This side of the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025
The appreciation of the exchange rate in 2025 has had impacts on inflation, chiefly in the category of tradable goods. It is true that much of the disinflation in this group is explained by food prices, whose behavior depends on variables beyond the exchange rate, but there are also signs of a sl...
Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2025 · 2 responses
Despite successive adjustments, the output gap estimated by the Central Bank (BC) has shown little sensitivity to the unemployment rate in recent years. This behavior could be justified by a rapid decline in the NAIRU over the period. However, when estimating it implicitly from the BC’s reference...