CHINA ADVISORY
Analyst
Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USARecent Country Insights
Beijing tries again
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Nov 2024
Beijing has once again—after several earlier attempts—tried to strengthen the economy through a stimulus package. This package, at 10 trillion yuan, is larger than previous attempts but is unlikely to achieve the desired turnaround in the economy to halt the decline in property sales and the rise...
Trump and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Nov 2024
While we don’t know the details of President-elect Trump’s plan for China, we can expect increased financial sanctions, higher tariffs, and a generally hostile climate toward trade and investment. These policies will heighten already sharp tensions within the Chinese economy and politics. The ele...
How long can consumer savings last?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2024
China is hoping a short-term stimulus package will revive the economy. The rumored size of a package keeps growing. Although a large stimulus package has not taken place, the impact of the slowing economy on ordinary citizens has been reduced due to the size of savings deposits in the banks and g...
China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024
The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...
China’s Struggling Consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Sep 2024
Some Recent consumer data shows the Chinese economy steadily weakening. We look at several key data points pointing to the decline. Declining film box office revenue: The totals for film revenue is down 43 percent for the three months from June through August. According to a senior film exe...
China’s circling of the wagons financial strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Sep 2024
China’s bond market has been on a tear recently. Chinese banks, including both rural and city, along with the big national state banks, have been significantly increasing their purchases of central government bonds, leading to the rare event of 10-year and 30-year bonds trading below the central ...
China’s report card
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Aug 2024
In the first half of 2024 China faced significant challenges and some important decisions. How did it do? Here, we provide a quick report card on China’s successes and failures in navigating a difficult environment.
The Third Plenum and US-China relations
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2024
The Third Plenum occurs every five years and sets the tone for economic policy for the future. This year’s Third Plenum has been quite dull, with the leadership issuing a policy document that was a grab bag of Xi Jinping’s main talking points. It was also almost over-shadowed by continuing rumors...
The view from Washington
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jun 2024
I was invited to a conference organized by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington to launch its new China initiative. The conference featured Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, along with Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor under Trump; Bonnie Lin of the th...