CHINA ADVISORY
Analyst
Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USARecent Country Insights
Will China's economy and technology surpass the U.S.?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 May 2025
There is a growing view that China’s economy and technology will soon surpass that of the U.S. Kyle Chan, a researcher at Princeton University, outlined this argument in a New York Times op-ed: “For years, theorists have posited the onset of a 'Chinese century': a world in which China finally ...
Thoughts on the trade talks (a win-win?) and China's stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 May 2025
China and the U.S. plan to hold two days of trade talks in Switzerland starting May 10 for the first time since the beginning of Trump’s second administration. The Financial Times noted that “The meeting will be the first high-level interaction between the two sides since Vice President Han Zheng...
What Xi Jinping won’t do
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Apr 2025
Many outsiders tend to view Xi Jinping as a rational economic actor who implements policy with an authoritarian hand, who would make the same decisions economically that the U.S. would. However, that is not always true. The priorities of the Chinese state often differ from those of the U.S. There...
Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025
China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...
Pressure points on China from the Trump Administration
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Mar 2025
Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 have or may impose a variety of tariffs. We have some sense of the macroeconomic impact on China. But what about the domestic political pressure points? We know that China has deliberately targeted its tariffs heavily on red states to weaken Trump’s base. Is there likely t...
China’s “DeepSeek” tech rebound
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Mar 2025
The success of DeepSeek along with Xi Jinping’s meeting with technology firms has caused a rally in Chinese tech stocks. DeepSeek’s ability to create a sophisticated AI engine with minimal chip hardware has been taken as sign of China’s ability to improve on western technology at a much lower pri...
Unpegging the Hong Kong dollar peg
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Feb 2025
Given the difficult state of Hong Kong’s economy, and more broadly its role in the world, it is not surprising that we are seeing speculation about how the city will refashion itself under tighter mainland control. There are concerns about the direction of the economy; the strength of its pillar ...
Geopolitical risks and the domestic economy: Are Chinese officials getting nervous?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2025
Xi Jinping is fighting two fires simultaneously: the geopolitical risk of sanctions and a trade war, and a rapidly slowing domestic economy. The trade war outcome is out of his control until Trump enacts specific policies. Even then, Xi has limited retaliatory options such as restricting exports ...
Policy shift or feint?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2025
Recent statements in China have been interpreted by some analysts as a change in policy. Xi Jinping is now warning of “challenges” in China’s economy. These and related comments have been viewed by some as hinting at a possible change in the central government's attitude toward economic stimulus....