HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
President Viktor Orbán?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025
It looks like the forint market did not like today's Bloomberg article about PM Orbán's possible attempt to strengthen the currently pretty much powerless position of the President of the Republic, planning to take over that position before the election. We think that the presentation of the news...
Good news on consumer inflation in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025
CPI-inflation for November has been reported at 0.1% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning. The year-on-year rate dropped quite substantially, from the previous 4.3%, and it fell into the MNB target range for the first time this year. Non-fuel inflation dropped to 4.6% yoy, i.e. by two decimal points from t...
Fitch Ratings' outlook on their BBB sovereign rating went from Stable to Negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2025
Fitch Ratings held the H2 review of their Hungary sovereign rating yesterday, also ending the late-in-the-year review season for the Top-3 rating agencies as regards 2025. The agency affirmed the government's BBB rating, but changed the outlook to Negative from Stable on this occasion: Fitch attr...
Hungary's supply of Russian crude oil is not affected by recent Ukrainian hit at the Druzhba pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025
On December 1, Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline system once again, causing an explosion and another break in the continuity of oil shipments. Subsequently, reports like the following one have appeared in the media: However, this does not appear to be correct. As widely known, Druzhba indeed t...
Another hurdle passed: Moody's affirmed its Baa2/Negative sovereign credit rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025
On Friday, November 28, Moody's affirmed its investment grade credit rating for the Hungarian government, despite fears that a negative rating decision may follow the most recent loosening up of fiscal targets for this year and 2026. There is only one rating review date still scheduled by a Top-3...
Puzzle of the month: Is Hungary exempt and protected?
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Nov 2025
Energy remains a key policy concern. On one hand, gas and oil import prices have fallen non-seasonally in recent weeks, generating a substantial terms-of-trade gain and invaluable support for the balance of payments. On the other hand, new US sanctions against leading Russian energy companies and...
Changing positions in the MNB and the Monetary Council should not have any impact on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2025
Today's news is the sudden resignation of Barnabás Virág, vice governor of the MNB, who is to be replaced by Péter Benő Banai, currently senior advisor to Governor Varga, and formerly the secretary of state responsible for the government budget in Mr. Varga's Finance Ministry, and for a limited p...
Analysts expect a base rate cut only in H2 2026
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025
The Monetary Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. Analysts participating in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll uniformly expect the 6.5% base rate to hold on this occasion. Indeed, it would be just very surprising if the Council decided to go for a rate cut, after it...
A lot to digest for today: October CPI, fiscal loosening, and a "protective shield" from the US
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
The October CPI-inflation data, reported this morning, is almost normal, although not exactly a reason for enthusiasm, due to rising yoy core inflation. Monthly headline inflation was zero for the third consecutive period, leaving the yoy rate at 4.3%, also entirely unchanged since July. Core inf...