HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Excellent January inflation data (with some footnotes), analysts expect a base rate cut soon
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2026
The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy in January, the latter sharply down from December's 3.3% yoy. Core inflation also fell, to 2.7% yoy from the previous month's 3.8% yoy, and non-fuel inflation dropped to 3.4% yoy, from 4.5% yoy in December.This sharp drop was no surprise a...
Politico.eu seen in Hungarian politics once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026
This morning, Politico.eu, which excels as an efficient miner of inside information in Brussels, wrote on a currently considered five-point plan to bring Ukraine into the EU by 2027, referring to their conversations with ten officials and diplomats within the EU. This plan would greatly affect Hu...
Tisza published its policy platform document yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2026
Roughly two months ahead of the election, Tisza published its policy platform on February 7, a 240-page document under the title: 'Foundations of a functioning and humane Hungary'. According to speakers from Tisza, this was prepared by more than 1000 experts over the past one and a half years. Us...
EU finally prohibited gas imports from Russia, Hungary sues at the European Court
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026
The EU regulation to prohibit the imports of natural gas from Russia was finally published in the EU's official gazette on January 26, after being approved by the European Parliament in early December and by the EU Council at a later date. This regulation does not prohibit the imports of Russian ...
A few snippets on most recent developments
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2026
By and large, the MNB's January rate-setting meeting on Tuesday proved to be a non-event, as expected. But, please, remain being warned that a base rate cut, most likely by 25bps, may come in late March, provided the usual early-year wave of price adjustments is found to have been completed with ...
Extreme election uncertainty magnifies risks of macro forecasts
HUNGARY · Forecast · 23 Jan 2026
Less than three months before the parliamentary election, there remains extraordinarily high uncertainty as to the likely outcome. Opinion poll results are diverse, even though on average they suggest that the opposition Tisza is distinctly more popular than Fidesz. However, given the existing he...
Hungary's MOL is set to acquire a majority stake in Serbia's NIS oil refinery
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2026
MOL has just said it signed a binding letter of intent to acquire a 56% controlling stake in Serbia's Nafta Industrija Srbije (NIS) company, which includes the country's only oil refinery at Pancevo, a retail network and a hydrocarbon exploration and production branch. MOL is buying this stake fr...
EU decisions regarding Hungary reportedly postponed until the election
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026
Early this week, the President of the Republic officially called the parliamentary election for April 12, the earliest legally possible date, in line with long-time expectation, but running counter to some local speculations that PM Orbán may act to postpone the election if developments are not f...
Headline inflation rate down sharply in December, further reduction is likely in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026
Headline CPI-inflation was 0.1% mom, 3.3% yoy in December, the latter sharply down from 3.8% yoy in November. Despite the significant move by the yoy rate, this data was no surprise: the median analyst expected exactly this outcome, according to Portfolio.hu, and our own forecast table included 3...