HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The end of interest rate cuts is near
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2024
Our new quarterly forecast changes moderately from the previous one, issued in January. We still expect considerable economic recovery in 2024, but we scaled back our GDP forecast given the weakness of European industry, especially car manufacturing, and the longer-than-expected time required for...
New opposition star announced his party, runs at European election in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2024
Péter Magyar, who appeared as an opposition politician just a few weeks ago, and has been ambitiously working to build himself up as a leading figure ever since then, has announced his new party (TISZA Respect and Freedom), and also the fact that this party has been registered by the National Ele...
CPI-inflation marginally down in March: no surprise at all
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024
CPI-inflation for March came out this morning at 0.8% mom, 3.6% yoy, the latter marginally down from last month's 3.7%. This was exactly the same as analysts' median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly poll. What was driving prices up was unregulated services, household energy and fuels, ...
Poor budget, strengthening forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024
The central government's cash budget did not do particularly well in March and Q1, according to fresh data from the Finance MInistry. In annualised ratio-to-GDP terms, the March deficit was recorded at 9.7%, marginally down from 9.9% one year earlier, and the Q1 total reached 12.2%, exactly the s...
February industry and retail sales show some further consolidation, though no breakthrough at all by consumer demand
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Apr 2024
KSH published February industrial output and retail sales data this morning. Industry grew by 3.5% mom, 0.1% yoy, recovering from -1.1% mom in January and a 13-month series of substantially negative data in year-on-year terms. At this moment, it is not known how the recovery was contributed to by...
Important fiscal data from the Easter Bunny's basket
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024 · 1 response
Coloured eggs, a standard part of the Easter decoration of houses and gardens in most of Central Europe, is brought by the Easter Bunny in her basket, as far as the story presented to little children is concerned. This time around, the bunny also brought about some fresh fiscal data for Easter, a...
Disturbance in the force - a high-profile revolt in Fidesz' inner circles
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2024
The last three weeks did not go particularly well for Fidesz from the domestic politics point of view. Previously, we wrote of the unfortunate case of a presidential pardon to a convicted pedophile-helper, which led to the sudden resignation of the president of the republic, the former minister o...
Base rate cut in line with analyst expectations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024
The Monetary Council reduced the base rate by 75bps to 8.25% at today's meeting, just as expected by private sector analysts. This means that the 100bps rate cut of late February indeed proved to be a temporary (more accurately a one-time) deviation from the previous four months' standard monthly...
Analysts expect a 75bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2024
The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is due tomorrow. Analysts responding to Portfolio.hu's usual poll have a median expectation of a 75bps base rate cut, with seven respondents forecasting this step, two expecting a 100bps rate reduction, and another two predicting on...