HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
September CPI-inflation marginally better than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2025
The headline rate remained unchanged at 4.3% yoy for the third consecutive month in September, on zero inflation in this single month, just as it happened in August. Core inflation was unchanged as well, at 3.9% yoy, also on unchanged prices on average in September alone.The media appears to be p...
Mr. Nagy speaks as well: the policy story continues
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2025
We apologise for coming back the second time within a single day. But as it happens, Mr. Nagy, the economy minister, appearing at the Budapest Economic Forum this morning, picked up the policy topic already touched upon by PM Orbán yesterday, and it seems that the two sets of comments need to be ...
August retail and industry figures: one mediocre, one miserable, plus an interesting comment from PM Orbán on central bank policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2025
Retail sales (volumes, seasonally and day-adjusted) grew 0.8% mom, 2.3% yoy, the latter following +2% yoy in July and +3.1% yoy in Q2. The fix-based KSH chart (Dec 2010=100) looks as follows:As it is optically observable as well, retail sales remain on a generally ascending trend, but the pace of...
Excellent new fiscal data for H1 2025, paradoxically requiring the continuation of tight MNB policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Eurostat-methodology figures for the government sector deficit, the main indicator for fiscal policy, was published for H1 2025 yesterday. The deficit ratio was surprisingly low, only 0.7% of GDP in that period. This result could raise eyebrows on the market, given the cash deficit ratio of t...
A misquoted statement by PM Orbán, on alleged spy drones in Ukraine's airspace
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
A few days ago, President Zelenskyy accused Hungary of sending a spy drone into Ukrainian airspace on two occasions, both observed on September 26. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine even published maps to illustrate their claim, showing the alleged flying path of the Hungarian dron...
New inflation report does not point to a lower MNB base rate in the foreseeable future
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2025
The monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held three days ago, and the Q3 inflation report was published yesterday. At the meeting, no rate or other policy action was taken, and the existing "careful and patien" policy approach, together with the Council's hawkish forward guida...
Headwinds to imports of Russian oil are intensifying
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025
Following the obvious failure of his Alaska initiative, President Trump has decided to move to Ukraine's side most recently. On different occasions and through various means, including his own social media platform, his energy minister, and also talking at a press conference at the UN general ass...
Strong-forint policy has become more accentuated
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The authorities’ desire to reduce inflation before the election has become more evident than at any time previously. The government cabinet has decided to extend the existing caps on retail margins, and the Economy Minister has hinted at a postponement of an excise tax increase originally planned...
Russian drones in NATO airspace: Hungary unaffected, PM Orbán has taken side with Poland
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2025
The violation of Polish airspace by more than a dozen Russian drones (all of which have been intercepted by US and Polish airplanes) during the night did not affect Hungary (see the chart below). PM Orbán has issued a brief statement in the morning: 'Hungary expresses its full solidarity with Pol...