HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
A vote count update and Magyar's introductory speech
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Apr 2026
The officially communicated election result did not change significantly overnight, but the vote count rose to 98.9%. Importantly, the 170k mail votes cast by nonresidents have been counted and included, and so the most non-transparent part of the election process has been eliminated. What remain...
Landslide election victory achieved by Tisza today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2026
With a record high 80% participation rate, Tisza reached a surprisingly clear-cut election victory today. About 84% of the domestic total vote having been counted, Tisza has 138 seats, against 54 for Fidesz and 7 for Mi Hazánk, in the new, three-party National Assembly. This represents a two-thir...
CPI-inflation moved a bit upwards in March, caps on fuel prices had a substantial impact
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026
Even though all eyes are kept on election news in these days, this morning's KSH release of the March CPI-inflation data still appears significant, offering some insight into prospects for the rest of the year. Note: Year-on-year changes in percent; Sources: KSH and own estimates Unsurprisingly, ...
Vance visit, explosives near Turk Stream not to have any significant impact on election chances
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026
President Trump not having the time in these days, it is Vice President Vance who is set to come to Budapest, to promote PM Orbán's election chances, for a two-day visit beginning tomorrow. No one knows what else could happen at his talks with the Hungarian government, but it is a widespread view...
Voting preferences shifted in Tisza's favour in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2026
Following a relatively long intermission, voting preferences measured in opinion polls appeared to shift again in March, the result being an increasing lead for Tisza against Fidesz. Eventually, five out of the seven leading pollsters - Idea, Median, Republikon, Závecz (ZRI) and 21 Kutató - publi...
No surprise at today's Monetary Council: the base rate remains at 6.25%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026
The MNB base rate was kept unchanged at today's monthly rate-setting meeting, in line with expectation. For sure, we know that the pricing of forward contracts suggested that a rate increase was expected by the market, but the fact remains that analysts, including us, had been forecasting no chan...
Administrative fuel price caps look unsustainable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026
The following is supposed to be an important contribution ahead of next Tuesday's (March 24) Monetary Council meeting, which is scheduled to discuss the Q1 inflation report as well. Effective March 10, the government introduced 'protected retail prices' for the most basic types of fuels, which ar...
Jumping into the dark
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2026
Less than four weeks before the election, there is no sign of any significant change in the previously known odds. On one hand, Tisza maintains a significant and even moderately increasing lead in the polls. But on the other, these surveys do not include the views of those who vote from abroad, a...
MNB is ready to intervene for the forint, offering the sale of FX to energy importers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026
The Monetary Council decided this afternoon to offer the sale of foreign currencies to energy importers, for the MNB to secure the availability of FX liquidity at the current increased level of import prices. As Vice Governor Kurali commented, they want to eliminate the risk that the market could...