Analyst

Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central Bank

Databanks

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Recent Country Insights

An update to yesterday's forecast report - the MNB spoke again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jul 2024

Just as we were releasing our fresh forecast report yesterday, reports came in that the MNB spoke again, by Mr. Virág, the usual public face of the Monetary Council, appearing at a conference. He said that inflation (= the headline rate of CPI inflation) is more likely to be closer to 4% than 5% ...

PM Orbán has raised the stakes again
HUNGARY · Forecast · 15 Jul 2024

In the following quarterly update of our macro forecast, a few important revisions are introduced, even though our view regarding the basic trends remains unchanged. First, the speed and intensity of the ongoing economic recovery appears to be contained by the current poor performance of the indu...

Good-looking headline CPI reading in June, but somewhat misleading
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

Headline CPI-inflation for June was reported at 0% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter down from 4% in May, this morning. Analysts expected 3.9% yoy, so the actual looks like a really good figure. Note: Year-on-year changes in percent; Source: KSH However, this positive picture might be a bit misleading, a...

Mixed macro data reported again in recent days
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

In the past week, Mr. Orbán's lively diplomatic manoeuvres took all of the limelight, but there were also important data releases. Some of the new figures were quite positive, but others were not, and so the overall picture was not particularly impressive. First, the Q1 general government deficit...

PM Orbán indeed showed up in Moscow today. But why?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

Mr. Orbán indeed travelled to Moscow today, meeting president Putin, talking mainly about the war in Ukraine. They held a press conference afterwards, where Mr. Orbán said that he understands that the period of Hungary's rotating EU presidency is also a kind of a peace mission. A Kremlin spokesma...

PM Orbán is supposedly on his way to Moscow at this moment
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

PM Orbán met Ukrainian president Zelensky on Tuesday this week (July 2). This meeting was followed by an impressive amount of media noise, created by the affected governments, other politicians, political analysts and journalists all around the world. Most of the post-meeting comments appeared to...

PM Orbán and two other European politicians launched a new European Parliament faction today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

PM Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP, together with Czechia's ANO party (which left the liberal Renew faction in June) and Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ, so far member of the radical right-winger Identity and Democracy faction) announced the establishment of a new party group within the European Parliament, und...

The EU's 14th package of sanctions on Russia: what is Hungary's dependence on Russian LNG?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

The following is supposed to be a brief clarification of Hungarian dependence on the imports of Russian LNG. This is not because the EU's 14th sanction package, approved just a few days ago, would prohibit or block in any way the imports of LNG from Russia, because it obviously does not do that. ...

European and local elections have changed domestic politics substantially
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2024 · 1 response

In the European election of June 9, Mr. Orbán’s hopes that the radical right would beat the mainstream bloc were essentially dashed, despite the former indeed making some moderate gains. His immediate response was a sharp turn in external policies, holding back Hungary's blocking votes against NA...

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