HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
August CPI and budget numbers require a close look from analysts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2026
We have just received the August CPI-inflation data, which looks kind of all right at first glance, but is not at all very good after all, and the August cash budget figures, which look ugly, while being quite favourable after a closer look. So, the 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy August CPI-inflation data lo...
Industry and retail sales continued to strengthen in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2026
Industrial output grew by 1.7% mom, 4.5% yoy in July, following 3.5% yoy growth in Q2 and 1% yoy expansion in Q1. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) clearly shows an appreciably stable trend of material strengthening since the start of this year: Even more strength could be seen i...
Looks like the MNB may have intervened for the forint verbally yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2026 · 1 response
Following a short period of weakening on external factors, which we dealt with in our previous note two days ago, the forint gained strength again yesterday, after a 'rumour' reported by Bloomberg that afternoon. The news was that at the next rate-setting meeting on September 22, the Monetary Cou...
Most recent forint weakening is entirely due to external factors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026
The forint's weakening against EUR and USD, seen so far this week, does not really point in the direction of another base rate cut in September. But it is important to know that it can be traced back entirely to external factors, such as Russia/Ukraine, the Middle East, global energy prices and a...
The deadline for RRF (and cohesion funds) conditionality expires today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2026 · 1 response
At stake is €16.4bn, of which RRF is €10bn, two-thirds in grants and the rest in loans. All conditions are to be met and all utilisation of the RRF needs to be completed by the close of play tonight, or else the RRF funds will be partially or fully lost for Hungary. Earlier today, Minister of Tra...
MNB base rate down by another 25bps today, future path remains uncertain
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2026 · 1 response
Today's 25bps reduction of the MNB base rate, to 5.5%, was exactly as expected, given the MNB's own forecast of late June, and the latest excellent CPI-inflation reading for July. However, the rate reduction 'mini-cycle', as Governor Varga called it two months ago, is now over, and Mr. Varga hims...
Electricity production at Paks nuclear power plant to be restored to full capacity this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2026
Currently, Paks is producing at nearly three-fourth of its full capacity (see the Chart below). Within the next two days, output is going to be restored to full capacity, according to current plans. Output at the Paks nuclear power plant at 11:53 CEST on August 24, 2026 Source: Portfolio.hu Previ...
Lots of good news, yet critical times are coming
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Aug 2026
The end of summer is approaching, and it is difficult not to see a remarkable sequence of recent good news. GDP continued to grow in Q2; CPI-inflation fell to a ten-year low in July; a massive budget surplus occurred in the first three months after Tisza’s takeover; the forint remains strong, sup...
The end of dual power: the Constitutional Court rejected all three remaining Fidesz motions today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2026
Following the rejection of a Fidesz motion to reverse the re-nationalisation of public interest trusts the other day, all three remaining motions handed in by Fidesz were rejected by the Court today. As a result, President Baka remains in office, rather than former president Mr. Sulyok being put ...