HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Changing positions in the MNB and the Monetary Council should not have any impact on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2025
Today's news is the sudden resignation of Barnabás Virág, vice governor of the MNB, who is to be replaced by Péter Benő Banai, currently senior advisor to Governor Varga, and formerly the secretary of state responsible for the government budget in Mr. Varga's Finance Ministry, and for a limited p...
Analysts expect a base rate cut only in H2 2026
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025
The Monetary Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. Analysts participating in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll uniformly expect the 6.5% base rate to hold on this occasion. Indeed, it would be just very surprising if the Council decided to go for a rate cut, after it...
A lot to digest for today: October CPI, fiscal loosening, and a "protective shield" from the US
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
The October CPI-inflation data, reported this morning, is almost normal, although not exactly a reason for enthusiasm, due to rising yoy core inflation. Monthly headline inflation was zero for the third consecutive period, leaving the yoy rate at 4.3%, also entirely unchanged since July. Core inf...
Results of the Trump-Orbán meeting appear significant, although somewhat unclear
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2025
PM Orbán travelled to Washington DC in the past few days, and he met President Trump on November 7. Mr. Orbán travelled with a large mission, including the foreign, defense and economy ministers, a number of top businessmen and the number of media people needed to make big publicity around the vi...
Industry and retail sales all remained normal in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025
The preliminary Q3 GDP growth data was reported already a week ago (0% qoq, +0.6% yoy), but the September monthly industry and retail sales numbers are still something to be noticed, at least as a matter of regular housekeeping. Industrial output grew 1.3% mom and fell 1.7% yoy in volume terms, s...
Quick update on the refinery fire and US sanctions against Russia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Nov 2025
MOL's refinery at Százhalombatta (called Dufi for short), the only one in Hungary, was hit by a major fire on October. It affected the biggest of the refinery's three distillation units, which represents about 40% of total capacity. A few days later, they started to gradually restart the unaffec...
Still no GDP growth in Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2025
GDP remained stagnant in Q3, with 0% qoq growth in real terms, seasonally and day-adjusted, according to KSH's preliminary data published today. This implied 0.6% yoy growth, following 0.2% yoy in Q2 and -0.3% yoy in Q1. In the first three quarters together, GDP expanded by 0.2% yoy only. As the ...
New US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil unlikely to thwart Hungary's oil imports from Russia in short term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response
There seems to be some lack of certainty about the likely short-term consequences of the new US sanctions on Hungary's oil imports from Russia. We stress short-term, because the long-term prospect is that EU policies keep systematically moving towards eventually, and most probably within two year...
Refinery fire to affect inflation prospects, reduce potential for cutting the base rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response
New information regarding yesterday's fire at MOL's oil refinery suggests that the plant has temporarily lost about 40% of its productive capacity for a yet unknown period. Initial estimates for the time required to repair the damaged capacities range from a few weeks to several months. As we sai...