HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
No base rate change yesterday, new details revealed on the draft budget
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2026
Yesterday's Monetary Council meeting and Mr. Varga's post-meeting presentation almost became non-events, against the backdrop of the government's simultaneous presentation of the 2027 budget, consisting of an unusually long and detailed parliamentary speech by the Prime Minister two days ago, and...
Good news for today: fiscal deficit target set at 4.9% GDP, retail margin caps will be lifted
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2026
PM Magyar presented the Tisza's 2027 government budget in a two-hour parliamentary speech this afternoon, which he himself previewed the other day as one of his most important public appearances so far.Starting with the main point, the deficit target has been set at 4.9% of GDP, following the ame...
The moment of truth is coming
HUNGARY · Forecast · 16 Oct 2026
At present, all eyes seem to be focused on the upcoming budget plan for 2027 and the macro roadmap for 2027-2030, all set to become publicly known next week. Investors will likely see a substantial reduction of the deficit target for next year, but they should not expect a miracle in that regard....
September CPI moderately below expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2026 · 1 response
As reported yesterday, the median analyst expectation for September headline CPI-inflation was 1.8% yoy, up from 1.3% in the previous month. But the actual figure was 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy only. Fuel prices indeed rose 5.9% mom, maybe a bit less than expected, but non-fuel inflation was actually -0....
Three new data reports (industry, retail sales, budget) and one data preview (CPI)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2026
Well, this is more good than bad, but not entirely good, we would say. 1. Industrial output grew 1% mom, 8.7% yoy in August. This looks quite impressive on the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100) below, though it still does not reflect a broad-based upswing of industrial activity. The upturn was co...
Retail margin caps may be lifted quite soon
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Oct 2026 · 1 response
Two days ago, PM Magyar visited the economically less prosperous north-eastern region of Hungary, on the occasion that the newly established National Asset Recovery and Protection Agency (NVVH) previously took into custody a former economy minister of the Fidesz government in the 2010s, not long ...
A brief comment on recent MNB talk
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Sep 2026
Last Tuesday (September 22), the Monetary Council halted its three-month long loosening 'mini-cycle', raised its inflation forecast for the next five quarters and reduced its medium-term inflation target to 2.5% from 3%, although the latter only from January 2028 (which matters very little in pra...
MNB will indeed lower its inflation target, but only from January 2028
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2026
There has not been too much surprise heard from today's Monetary Council meeting. The base rate was indeed held at 5.5%, and the inflation target is indeed set to go lower, to 2.5%, just as Bloomberg predicted already a few weeks ago. Somewhat surprisingly though, Governor Varga said after the me...
Anti-corruption efforts shifted to a higher gear
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2026
The draft budget for 2027 will be presented to the Fiscal Council, from which point it can be regarded as publicly known, on October 17, PM Magyar said today. For the average citizen, that plan will include good news and bad news alike, but possibly more bad than good, given the conflict between ...