HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
MNB base rate down by another 25bps today, future path remains uncertain
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2026 · 1 response
Today's 25bps reduction of the MNB base rate, to 5.5%, was exactly as expected, given the MNB's own forecast of late June, and the latest excellent CPI-inflation reading for July. However, the rate reduction 'mini-cycle', as Governor Varga called it two months ago, is now over, and Mr. Varga hims...
Electricity production at Paks nuclear power plant to be restored to full capacity this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2026
Currently, Paks is producing at nearly three-fourth of its full capacity (see the Chart below). Within the next two days, output is going to be restored to full capacity, according to current plans. Output at the Paks nuclear power plant at 11:53 CEST on August 24, 2026 Source: Portfolio.hu Previ...
Lots of good news, yet critical times are coming
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Aug 2026
The end of summer is approaching, and it is difficult not to see a remarkable sequence of recent good news. GDP continued to grow in Q2; CPI-inflation fell to a ten-year low in July; a massive budget surplus occurred in the first three months after Tisza’s takeover; the forint remains strong, sup...
The end of dual power: the Constitutional Court rejected all three remaining Fidesz motions today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2026
Following the rejection of a Fidesz motion to reverse the re-nationalisation of public interest trusts the other day, all three remaining motions handed in by Fidesz were rejected by the Court today. As a result, President Baka remains in office, rather than former president Mr. Sulyok being put ...
Great news: Constitutional Court refused a Fidesz request to reverse the re-nationalisation of 'public interest trusts'
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2026
Fidesz has asked the Constitutional Court to annul four provisions of the Constitution's 16th and 17th amendment, all approved by the Tisza-dominated new parliament. These were: - the provision required for the so-called public interest trusts (PITs), a legal construction, through which Fidesz ex...
Truly impressive: massive budget surplus reported for July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2026
Well, this is quite brutal: the Finance Ministry reported a preliminary HUF523bn cash surplus for the central budget for July, bringing the cumulative seven-month deficit down to HUF2858bn or an annualised 5.4% of GDP: Indeed, the central budget had surpluses in each of the three months since Tis...
Lowest inflation for the last ten years, and its policy consequences
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2026
The headline rate of CPI-inflation fell to 1.2% yoy in July, from 1.7% yoy in June, the lowest figure seen since November 2016. This was a great surprise, analysts expected 1.5% yoy. Core inflation decreased by less, to 1.9% yoy from the previous month's 2% yoy, but non-fuel inflation was also do...
June industry, retail sales and trade data not quite as bad as it looks at first glance
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2026
This morning's KSH report of the June industrial output and retail sales data has been assessed as unfavourable by some local analysts. This judgement is based on the fact that industry shrank 1.4% mom and retail turnover fell 0.4% mom, both volume terms and sda basis. But indeed, these figures a...
Paks nuclear power plant is almost fully turned off, but economic impact is likely to be limited
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Aug 2026
As we reported a few days ago, Central Europe, and indeed the western part of the continent as well, is suffering from a severe drought, combined with unusually high peak daily air temperatures. Over the last few days, water levels in the Danube river have fallen to about half a meter lower than ...