HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
On new data releases: weak industry, strengthening consumption, and moderate surpluses on the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2024
1. Industrial output fell 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy in August, he latter following -6.4% yoy in July. January-August was -3.8% yoy. So far this year, the usual mantra has been that most of the obvious weakness is caused by cars and batteries. But this time around, the foregoing preliminary numbers were ...
Some good-looking fiscal data and the negative forint impact of the ugly Middle East situation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024
Starting with the bad news, the forint has just been kicked out of its cosy EURHUF 390-395 range it held for quite a while, to quite unnervingly close to the 400 line, which the MNB obviously will not want to see being crossed, for the potential, and even likely, negative impact on domestic infla...
No surprise once again: MNB base rate reduced to 6.5% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2024
We, and honestly everyone else in the analyst community, have proven right in predicting the MNB's September rate action. At today's monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate by another 25 bps: Indeed, forecasting this step was not really that difficult, i...
More clarity about PM Orbán’s casting of key policy positions
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Sep 2024
PM Orbán has just revealed a bit more about his plans regarding key policy positions after Mr. Matolcsy’s expected departure from the MNB in March 2025. The other day, he said that one of his government ministers will take over the MNB, and another one will take responsibility for the newly re-me...
Why is the forint weaker early this week?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2024
The forint spent the past one-month period in the state of spectacular stability, the EURHUF hovering in a narrow range between 390-395, a level which everyone appeared to be satisfied with. But starting last night, it suddenly weakened to EURHUF 396-398, which is no big move but a bit unusual. A...
Expect falling headline inflation data for August tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2024
KSH is set to publish its CPI-inflation data for August tomorrow. Essentially everyone expects that the headline rate will move downwards from July's actual 4.1% yoy. The MNB, as we reported earlier, predicted 3.4% yoy in its Q2 inflation report (true, that forecast also included 3.8% yoy for Jul...
Industry and retail sales figures for July: neither good, nor bad
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2024
Industrial output and retail sales have just been reported by KSH for July. Both were completely unchanged during the month (changing by 0.0% mom in volume terms, seasonally and day-adjusted). For industry, this meant -6.4 yoy, following -3.5% yoy in Q2 (-3% yoy for H1 in total). For retail sales...
Q2 GDP data is not quite as poor as it looks at first glance
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024
Detailed GDP data for Q2 2024 is out today. The preliminary report of -0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy growth (or the lack of it) has not changed. So clearly, the recovery seen in Q1 did not continue, which has proven to be a reason for a great deal of disappointment within the government and also in the priv...
No sterilisation rate cut in August, for the first time since April 2023
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2024
The Monetary Council held the MNB base rate at 6.75% at today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting: This was largely as expected: the majority of analysts, including us, predicted this outcome. However, the expectation of no rate change this month was not unanimous, as some analysts predicted a...