HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
New US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil unlikely to thwart Hungary's oil imports from Russia in short term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response
There seems to be some lack of certainty about the likely short-term consequences of the new US sanctions on Hungary's oil imports from Russia. We stress short-term, because the long-term prospect is that EU policies keep systematically moving towards eventually, and most probably within two year...
Refinery fire to affect inflation prospects, reduce potential for cutting the base rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response
New information regarding yesterday's fire at MOL's oil refinery suggests that the plant has temporarily lost about 40% of its productive capacity for a yet unknown period. Initial estimates for the time required to repair the damaged capacities range from a few weeks to several months. As we sai...
Fire at Hungary's only oil refinery, damage unknown yet, domestic supply of refined products remains safe
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025
Last night, a serious fire broke out at Dunai Kőolajfinomító (DUFI), Hungary's only oil refinery. DUFI is owned by MOL Group, a publicly-traded company, in which the government owns a controlling stake. According to MOL, the fire affected the biggest one out of the refinery's three distillation u...
Messrs. Putin and Trump are coming to Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025
It was only two days ago that we wrote in our forecast report that Hungary's foreign relations are developing now with all eyes kept on the upcoming parliamentary election, and that the roles are clearly distributed: Messrs. Putin and Trump support PM Orbán, whereas the European mainstream suppor...
All eyes on the budget, debt ratings and the ballot boxes
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2025
Our quarterly forecast update is based on two main technical assumptions. One is that US and, indirectly, global trade policies will remain the same as they were known at the end of September 2025. This should include primarily the tariffs agreed between the US and the EU during the summer, and a...
No downgrade from S&P, Governor reconfirms tight MNB policy course
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Oct 2025
S&P said yesterday that they did not change their BBB-/Negative rating for the Hungarian government, on the occasion of their second and last review date for that rating in 2025. S&P did not even issue a new assessment for Hungary this time. So for now, the government have avoided the threat of f...
September CPI-inflation marginally better than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2025
The headline rate remained unchanged at 4.3% yoy for the third consecutive month in September, on zero inflation in this single month, just as it happened in August. Core inflation was unchanged as well, at 3.9% yoy, also on unchanged prices on average in September alone. The media appears to be ...
Mr. Nagy speaks as well: the policy story continues
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2025
We apologise for coming back the second time within a single day. But as it happens, Mr. Nagy, the economy minister, appearing at the Budapest Economic Forum this morning, picked up the policy topic already touched upon by PM Orbán yesterday, and it seems that the two sets of comments need to be ...
August retail and industry figures: one mediocre, one miserable, plus an interesting comment from PM Orbán on central bank policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2025
Retail sales (volumes, seasonally and day-adjusted) grew 0.8% mom, 2.3% yoy, the latter following +2% yoy in July and +3.1% yoy in Q2. The fix-based KSH chart (Dec 2010=100) looks as follows: As it is optically observable as well, retail sales remain on a generally ascending trend, but the pace o...