ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
August print analysis: Housing and seasonality pushed inflation up;
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Sep 2025
August’s CPI rose 0.7% m/m slightly above our expectations for 0.6% rise, bringing headline inflation to 2.9% y/y, slightly below the upper bond of the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal reading: Airfares increased 17% and domestic holidays 12%, both...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 15, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Sep 2025
The focal point last week was Israel’s unprecedented strike in Doha against the Hamas leadership. From Israel’s perspective, the operation fell short of its objective, as senior Hamas figures were apparently not present in the targeted building. The move drew criticism abroad, including from Wash...
Q2 current account surplus narrows; Israelis invest more abroad, while foreign inflows remain resilient
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025
Yesterday we got some surprisingly weak data from Israel’s current account. The surplus narrowed dramatically to just $0.6 billion in Q2 2025, down from $5.4 billion in Q1. This is the lowest surplus recorded since Q4 2012, signaling a worrying trend for the Israeli economy. The trade deficit wid...
August CPI preview: high monthly inflation of 0.6% is expected, but yearly inflation to fall below the upper bound of the target
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2025
On Monday ((tomorrow), Israel will release the August CPI print, which we will be watching closely. We expect a 0.6% monthly increase, which would bring annual inflation down to around 2.8%, below the Bank of Israel’s 3% upper target range for the first time since September 2024. August has histo...
Encouraging August fiscal data for the Treasury, but risks persist ahead of the 2026 budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2025
Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance published positive budget data for August. Revenues came in stronger than expected, while the deficit narrowed more than anticipated, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP from 4.8% in July. The improvement largely reflects a sharp accelera...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 8, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Sep 2025
This is the first of a new series of weekly reports in which we will review and analyze the week's geopolitical and macroeconomic developments and provide an outlook on both. In geopolitics, the main event of the past week continued to be the government’s decision to push ahead with the conque...
Israel launches Gaza ground offensive, raising growth and fiscal risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025
Yesterday, some 40,000 reservists got emergency call-ups as Israel prepares for the “Chariots of Gideon II” operation. The plan is described as a step-by-step move to take control of Gaza. Most senior security officials opposed the government’s decision to start the operation. They preferred the ...
Israel slows bond issuance in September, but fiscal risks point to higher borrowing ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Aug 2025
The government’s monthly issuance plan for September 2025 is to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 2.75 billion per week. This marks a slower pace than in previous months: In July, issuance totaled NIS 12.37 billion, after a ...
Bank of Israel holds rates; future easing less likely as Gaza operation gets underway
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025
As we expected, the Bank of Israel kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% yesterday, for the 13th consecutive meeting. The tone was cautious and hawkish, with emphasis on inflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty, and a tight labor market. The bank also mentioned signs of a rapid recovery afte...