ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
A day of hope for Israelis and Palestinians, as Trump announces Gaza ceasefire: Analysis and implications
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025
Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his Gaza peace plan, including an agreement for a ceasefire, the release of all hostages, a large-scale release of Palestinian prisoners, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces to an agreed line. A...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 6, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Oct 2025
This week, Israel returned from an extended Yom Kippur weekend to a single trading day (Sunday) before entering another holiday break for Sukkot. During the intermediate days of the holiday (Chol HaMoed, Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday), business and financial activity will take place on a limite...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 1, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Sep 2025
In the past week, Israeli markets and policy were shaped by two dominant forces: geopolitics and monetary policy. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan dominated headlines, offering a comprehensive framework that received broad international support but faces uncertainty around Ham...
Bank of Israel rate decision: hawkish tone, but Trump plan could pave way for easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
The Bank of Israel kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with market expectations. In our view, the tone was slightly hawkish relative to expectations, emphasizing geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the need to maintain financial stability. The wording was chosen to highlig...
Trump’s Gaza plan: broad support abroad, uncertainty over Hamas approval, rising likelihood of early elections in Israel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
Key takeaway: Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan has gained broad international and Arab support, but Hamas’s acceptance remains uncertain. In Israel, the plan currently enjoys political backing, though risks remain that Israel could withdraw from the understandings under political pressure or if Hamas s...
Rate decision preview: Bank of Israel to hold rates; updated macro forecast in focus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Sep 2025
Most forecasters (including us) expect no change in the policy rate on Monday. Why do we believe the Bank of Israel will keep rates unchanged? August’s CPI, published on September 16, surprised to the upside with a 0.7% monthly increase. While annual inflation declined to 2.9%, back within the Ba...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Sep 2025
Last week was dominated by geopolitics, as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” speech raised fears of economic fallout and deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Markets reacted negatively, while the failed strike on Hamas leaders in Doha further strained ties with Arab states. We outlined...
Israel labor & demography: three prints, one message
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025
We got three data points this week on the labor market and demography, and they all point the same way: the labor market remains tight. Demand for workers is increasing, while labor supply is constrained by reservist service and net emigration. That combination keeps wage and price pressures aliv...
August print analysis: Housing and seasonality pushed inflation up;
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Sep 2025
August’s CPI rose 0.7% m/m slightly above our expectations for 0.6% rise, bringing headline inflation to 2.9% y/y, slightly below the upper bond of the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal reading: Airfares increased 17% and domestic holidays 12%, both...