ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
Israel's public debt surges to 69% of GDP in 2024. Economic implications and what’s ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
Israel's Ministry of Finance reported a sharp rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 69% in 2024, up from 61.3% in 2023 and 60.3% in 2022. Government debt-to-GDP climbed to 67.6%, with total government debt reaching NIS 1,329.3 billion by the end of 2024, compared to NIS 1,127.4 billion in 2023....
Politics: Fragile ceasefires and emerging power realignments in the Middle East
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jan 2025
This is the first of a series of monthly reports that will focus on Israel’s domestic politics, as well as regional politics as they impact Israel. - Trump’s pressures were key in securing the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza. Despite its continued hope to annihilate Hamas, Israel is likely to ...
Israel's unemployment hits historic low in December 2024 amid tight labor market; easing expected in 2025
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Jan 2025
In December 2024, Israel's official unemployment rate dropped to 2.6% from 2.7% in November (seasonally adjusted). The broader measure of unemployment, which includes individuals temporarily out of work due to the war, fell to 4.0%, from 4.4% in the previous month. Consequently, the annual unempl...
December CPI release: a downward surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025 · 1 response
The consumer price index reading for December was down by 0.3%, below market expectations for an index between 0.0% and 0.1%. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.4% in November, with core inflation (seasonally adjusted, excluding housing, fruits, and vegetables) at 3.1%—sli...
The BoI stressed demand concerns rather than declining supply constraints
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2025
1. A cautious monetary stance will most likely postpone easing until end-May. 2. The BoI dilemma centers around the concern regarding a post-war consumption surge, a concern we think is exaggerated. 3. Business confidence improved in December due to the ceasefire, while consumers remain pe...
The BoI appears more concerned about excess demand on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2025
Geopolitics: The Northern border remains calm with the cease-fire holding. The Israeli air force with the US/GB attacked military and infrastructure in Yemen. Some drones from Yemen were shot down last week but no sirens went off. Low-level hostilities continue in Gaza. The Israeli negotiating te...
A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025
A somewhat hawkish hold by the MPC There were no real surprises in the rate (hold) decision, but the announcement was more hawkish than we had expected. The same inflationary risks were copy/pasted from the last decision: ”there are several risks for a possible acceleration of inflation: geopolit...
A dovish “hold” expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2025
1. We expect a rate-hold decision today, with a more dovish bias. 2. Business sector optimism improved sharply in December. 3. Private consumption has been robust into year-end in anticipation of higher taxation.
A dovish "hold" expected today (Monday)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2025
Geopolitics: The Lebanese border remains calm while Israel has neutralized military capabilities in Syria (recently a precise missile production factory). Periodic ballistic missiles fired from Yemen have been shot down before entering Israel. The Israeli negotiating team returned to Qatar in ord...