KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: recent economic and financial data suggest a coming slowdown in growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response
Our previous report highlighted that despite strong economic growth, several paradoxes have surfaced in the Kazakh economy, suggesting a potential slowdown amid inevitable economic policy changes. One such shift involves an evolving fiscal policy and a seemingly more cautious use of public funds....
Kazakhstan macro: Concerned about inflation, the NBK turns more radical
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Oct 2025
A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 bps to 18%. While a rate hike was anticipated, its magnitude exceeded expectations, as markets predicted a 50-to-100 bps increase. The NBK cited rising inflation as its primary concern, as it reached 12.9% y-o-y in Septem...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025
Oct 2 OPEC+: Kazakhstan's "debt" to compensate for the shortfall in OPEC+ production rose to 2.9 mln bpd, with “repayment” peaking in the 1H26. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is not yet meeting OPEC+ compensation schedules, but is making every effort. KMG: Kazakh oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ce...
Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
Sep 18 Mineral resources: In 4Q25, Canadian Laramide Resources will start exploratory drilling in southern Kazakhstan for uranium, REM and copper in 4Q25. Sep 22 Halyk Bank: The Bank will pay another $423.5 mln in dividends for 2024. KMG: The company and ExxonMobil have agreed to cooperate in the...
Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response
According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...
Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025
The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025
Sep 4 Oil transportation: Russian Rosneft has reached an agreement with Chinese partners to supply an additional 2.5 million tons of oil via Kazakhstan. Parliament: Kazakhstan's parliament approved a law enabling authorities to monitor suspicious money transfers. National pipeline company: In Aug...
Kazakhstan macro: looking for 2026 budget challenges
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 15 Sep 2025
Despite the nation’s budget performance appearing stable in 7M27, with high inflation and a weaker tenge boosting revenues tied to the exchange rate, some questions remain about the 2025 and 2026 budgets. The republican budget saw its total revenue grow by 12.4% in 7M26, with tax revenue increasi...