KAZAKHSTAN

Analyst

Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief Economist

Recent Country Insights

Kazakhstan macro: no change in macro trends in 2M24; puzzles remain
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Mar 2024

Recently, the Bureau of National Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan published a new set of monthly macroeconomic statistics, and the major takeaway is that the country’s economic trends haven't changed much. Last week, we published a report that presented a b...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2024

Mar 7 Government: Kazakhstan will strengthen monitoring of international transactions for transfer pricing. President: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement on a joint project to construct a 1 GW wind power farm. National pipeline company: The consolidated net profit of KazTransOil...

Industrial growth numbers look good, supported by an additional working day in February
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, the country’s industrial growth numbers looked strong – both in the case of mining and manufacturing segments. It occurred, not least, due to a leap year and an additional working day in February. The mining segment grew by 3.6% y-o-y i...

Kazakhstan macro: The art of financing budgetary expenditures
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 Mar 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan started publishing economic data for February, and it looks as though economic growth remains relatively stable, albeit uneven across sectors and with some signs of deceleration. For instance, the Bureau reported that retail sales grew by 4.0% y-o-y...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

Feb 22 Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 0.4% y-o-y in January Bureau of National Statistics: In January, investments in fixed capital in Kazakhstan grew by 0.6% y-o-y Ministry of Industry and Construction: In 2023, coal production in Kazakhstan dec...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth beat expectations last year but is likely to decelerate in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan published its preliminary GDP numbers on the production side for 2023. The end-use statistics will be published at a later date. It could well be the case that at some point the Bureau may somehow modify the quarterly GDP data as the annual figure i...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate by 50 bps
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2024

The NBK cut the base rate to 14.75%, i.e., by 50 bps, quoting falling inflation expectations as a key factor that triggered this decision. The regulator also referred to falling global food prices. Note that in January, inflation fell to 9.5% y-o-y while m-o-m inflation remained elevated (0.8% m-...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Feb 2024

Feb 9 NBK: As of February 1, Kazakhstan's gross international reserves (including gold) grew to $96.1 bln (+0.1% m-o-m). National pipeline: In January, KazTransOil exported 287K tons of oil (+36% y-o-y) from the port of Aktau. S&P: In January, Kazakhstan exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 92K bpd. Prime...

Economic growth moderates in January
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there a...

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