KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
Sep 18 Mineral resources: In 4Q25, Canadian Laramide Resources will start exploratory drilling in southern Kazakhstan for uranium, REM and copper in 4Q25. Sep 22 Halyk Bank: The Bank will pay another $423.5 mln in dividends for 2024. KMG: The company and ExxonMobil have agreed to cooperate in the...
Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response
According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...
Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025
The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025
Sep 4 Oil transportation: Russian Rosneft has reached an agreement with Chinese partners to supply an additional 2.5 million tons of oil via Kazakhstan. Parliament: Kazakhstan's parliament approved a law enabling authorities to monitor suspicious money transfers. National pipeline company: In Aug...
Kazakhstan macro: looking for 2026 budget challenges
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 15 Sep 2025
Despite the nation’s budget performance appearing stable in 7M27, with high inflation and a weaker tenge boosting revenues tied to the exchange rate, some questions remain about the 2025 and 2026 budgets. The republican budget saw its total revenue grow by 12.4% in 7M26, with tax revenue increasi...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025
Aug 21 Baiterek State Holding: The company will issue two tranches of Eurobonds worth up to $500 mln and up to KZT100 bln. KMG: The company’s net profit fell by 3% y-o-y in 1H25, while revenues increased by 6% y-o-y. Aug 22 Kazatomprom: The company’s net profit fell by one half in 1H25. Aug 25 S&...
Kazakhstan macro: reaching new local highs
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Sep 2025
Recent weeks have been eventful: economic statistics showed improvement, and the Kazakh government released its medium-term macroeconomic forecast, outlining several key budget parameters for 2026 and beyond. However, the detailed 2026 draft budget was unavailable as of this writing. The National...
NBK holds the base rate; inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025
A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan kept the base rate unchanged, citing inflation remaining high in July (at 11.8%). The regulator acknowledged that inflationary pressure would remain elevated for the rest of the year and mentioned the possibility of future rate hikes. The NBK expect...