KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge gradually weakens on lower oil, but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 May 2025
In recent days, the Kazakh authorities published macroeconomic statistics that shed additional light on the country’s situation (which looks not bad at all) and possible challenges ahead. Despite accelerated economic growth in 1Q25, it looks as though tax collection wasn't sufficient, not only in...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025
Apr 17 The Parliament: The Upper Chamber of the Parliament of Kazakhstan has ratified the agreement with the CIS on free trade in the services sector. Ministry of Trade: Kazakhstan has not yet discussed the issue of retaliatory tariff increases on imports. President: During a telephone conversati...
Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly accelerates as tax collection improves
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Apr 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation/warehousing, and IT/communications) grew by 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q25. In March alone, its y-o-y growth was even higher (9...
Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025
Apr 3 National pipeline company: The volume of Kazakh oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba oil pipeline in March reached 150K tons and increased by 50% compared to February. Ministry of Trade: US tariffs will affect less than 5% of Kazakhstan exports to the US. KMG: The heads of KMG and ...
Economic growth accelerated in 1Q25, the NBK keeps base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Apr 2025
The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its base rate unchanged at 16.5%, which looks unsurprising given that y-o-y inflation climbed to 10.0% in March amid m-o-m inflation at 1.3%-1.5% in the past two months. The NBK chairman, Mr. Suleimenov, quoted high inflation expectations as one of the main re...
Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate in the spotlight amid tariff games
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Apr 2025
The USD/KZT has been on a roller coaster in recent months, pushed up and down by various factors. After several months of natural depreciation that lasted until the end of January 2025, when the USD/KZT tested 530 in mid-January, the Kazakh currency moved below 500 a month later. Now, it is appro...
The US tariffs on Kazakhstan look peculiar, but the overall impact of the US trade policy won’t be unnoticed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025
As the US administration published the list of countries and tariffs imposed on many countries, Kazakhstan found itself in a quite peculiar situation as its foreign trade with the US so far was insignificant. According to the Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics, exports to the US accounted for a...
Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025
Mar 19 Energy Ministry: Mr Akkezhenov (formerly Deputy Minister) has been appointed as the new Minister of Energy. National nuclear company: In 2024, Kazatomprom’s net profit increased by 38%. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan held talks with French EDF. These negotiations are part of the process of ch...
Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues grow YoY but not enough, prompting tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Mar 2025
We recently mentioned that the republican budget accumulated about 15.1% of annually planned tax revenues in 2M25, which looks like an improvement compared with January, when the authorities collected only 5.1% of the annual plan. However, things still don’t look very reassuring as some taxes are...