KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Economic growth looks stable in August as domestic demand remains strong
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Sep 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing monthly economic data for August, showing that growth is gradually picking up. Retail trade rose by 4.5% y-o-y in 8M26, with August alone posting a 6.3% increase. In 7M26 and 1H26, growth stood at 4.1% and 3.8% respectively, marking a steady a...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Sep 2026
Aug 27 Legal suite: The court in Kazakhstan allowed Ukrainian Naftogaz to appeal the cancellation of the decision to recover $1.4 bln from Gazprom. Aug 28 KMG: The company will place "Dimsum" bonds worth CNY 3.5 bln in early September. Energy ministry: Oil production has been restored in Kazakhst...
The government 2027-2029 economic outlook and budget plan suggests steady GDP growth in the years ahead
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Sep 2026
The Kazakh government has released its macroeconomic forecast for 2027-2029, along with aggregate republican budget figures and some data tied to the consolidated budget. Overall, the outlook seems reasonable, though the baseline scenario may be a bit optimistic, projecting steady GDP growth of 5...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Aug 2026
Aug 13 US Department of Agriculture: The agency has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan in the current agricultural year (July 2026 to June 2027) from 9 to 10 mln tons. Aug 14 National pipeline company: Kazakh oil exports to Russian Ust‑Luga port were cut by 16.9% y-o-y, while e...
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge remains strong as the current account turns positive and capital flows in
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 25 Aug 2026
S&P Global Ratings recently upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit ratings to BBB from BBB- (long-term) and A-2 from A-3 (short-term), recognizing the government’s fiscal reforms and greater resilience to external shocks. The agency noted GDP growth could reach about 5.1% this year — well above i...
Kazakhstan macro: navigating a series of external shocks
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Aug 2026
Recently published economic statistics indicate that despite a number of external shocks that had affected the nation’s ability to export oil, Kazakhstan’s economy is still performing fairly well, although perhaps falling a bit short of expectations. According to the Bureau of National Statistics...
Statistics suggest economy keeps growing in 7M26 fast enough, albeit growth moderates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Aug 2026
Recent economic and financial data show that Kazakhstan’s economy is still performing fairly well, though perhaps falling a bit short of expectations, with GDP in the first half of 2026 up 4.1% year-on-year and the short-term indicator - a monthly measure of activity across six key sectors - risi...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Aug 2026
Jul 29 Foreign Ministry: The Foreign Ministers of Kazakhstan and the US discussed the CPC situation by phone. Jul 30 National railways: Freight traffic by rail between Kazakhstan and China increased by 9% y-o-y in 1H26. CPC: The company halted oil shipments at its marine terminal after a UAV atta...
Current account turned positive in 2Q26 and could stay in green in 2026 as a whole
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2026 · 1 response
The current account moved into surplus in 2Q26, hitting about $3.0 bln after a $2.0 bln deficit in 1Q26, bringing the 1H26 surplus to roughly $1.0 bln. This is a sharp turnaround from the $3.6 bln deficit in 1H25 and the $12.5 bln shortfall for all of 2025. In 4Q25, the deficit widened to $5.2 bl...