KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate and inflation to remain key variables to watch amid the forthcoming tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Nov 2025
The Kazakh parliament recently approved the updated government’s macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2028 after the final polishing of next year’s republican budget. The official forecast assumes GDP to grow by 5.4%, which is only slightly higher than the expected average annual growth for the next t...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025
Nov 15 KMG: The company and Uzbekneftegaz (Uzbekistan) signed an agreement on the Zharkyn oil exploration project in Mangystau region. President: Kazakhstan intends to increase the volume of transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan. Nov 16 President: Mr. Tokayev welcomes Azerbaijan's accession to reg...
Republican budget tax revenues remain well behind the plan in 10M25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2025
The Ministry of Finance has not yet published a full set of budgetary statistics for 10M25 and at the time of writing this note just released a brief note with several key republican budget numbers. According to the published text, total revenues (including tax revenues, non-tax revenues, incomes...
Industrial production growth numbers remain high in 10M25, deceleration likely in 2026
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025
According to a recent publication by the Bureau of National Statistics, industrial production grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 10M25 (slightly down from 7.4% in 9M25). In October alone industrial production was up by 7.1% pointing to a gradual, albeit natural, deceleration. As usual, the official m-o-m do n...
Economic growth steadily remains above expectations
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics officially announced that in 9M25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.3% as key segments performed unexpectedly well. The industry was up y-o-y by 7.3% (with mining delivering faster growth at 9.3% while manufacturing grew by 6.2%). Construction delivered 14.9% y-o-y grow...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Nov 2025 · 1 response
Nov 1 Prime-minister: Swiss Harvest Agro plans to invest more than $700 mln in the development of agriculture projects in Kazakhstan. Nov 2 OPEC+: Oil production by OPEC+ countries in 1Q26 may decrease moderately vs December level due to Kazakhstan's obligations to compensate for the significant ...
Kazakhstan macro: The recent strengthening of the tenge might not hold for long
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 Nov 2025
Recent macroeconomic data from the Bureau of Economic Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank show that while the current economic situation appears stable and economic growth exceeds expectations, the economy could be on the verge of changes due to some lingering macroeconomic...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Oct 2025
Oct 16 CPC: The company has transported slightly more than 54 mln tons (+10.7% y-o-y) of oil in 9M25. National pipeline company: KazTransOil and Transneft extend agreement on oil transit through Russia. CPC: Oil transportation via CPC in 2026 will be lower than in 2025 due to repairs and maintena...
Kazakhstan macro: recent economic and financial data suggest a coming slowdown in growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response
Our previous report highlighted that despite strong economic growth, several paradoxes have surfaced in the Kazakh economy, suggesting a potential slowdown amid inevitable economic policy changes. One such shift involves an evolving fiscal policy and a seemingly more cautious use of public funds....