KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Inflation likely remains elevated for the rest of the year, prompting no rate cuts from NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation decelerated m-o-m from 0.8% in June to 0.7% in July. However, the y-o-y price index remained unchanged at 11.8%. Services prices grew y-o-y by 14.9% (down from 16.1% in June), food prices were up by 11.2% (up from 10.6% in June), and the n...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...
Kazakhstan macro: economy accelerates amid delayed budget spending
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Last week, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth continued to accelerate on a year-over-year basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly print of economic activity) grew by 9.0% in 1H25. In 5M25, it was up by 8.6% y-o-y, and in January alone, it grew by 4.5% only. This ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jul 2025
Jun 25 Parliament: The Mazhilis (lower house) of the Parliament has finally approved the new Tax Code as amended by the Senate. The new Code introduces a progressive personal income tax scale: a salary of up to a specially introduced “monthly indicator” equal to 8500 per year (currently about KZT...
The National Fund decreases amid lack of revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported that assets of the National Fund shrank from KZT36.7 trln ($66.2 bln) as of January 1, 2025, to KZT32.8 trln ($63.4 bln) as of July 1. Tax revenues, i.e., the bulk of incoming payments, amounted to KZT1.8 trln in 1H25, i.e., 37.0% of the annual target (nearly KZT4...
Inflation y-o-y rises amid a slow deceleration m-o-m prompting no decisive action from the NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025
Inflationary pressure remains high as the Bureau of National Statistics reported inflation moved from 11.3% in May to 11.8% in June. However, it moderately decelerated last month to 0.8% m-o-m (versus 0.9% m-o-m in May and even higher numbers earlier this year). A year ago, inflation m-o-m was 0....
Kazakhstan macro: inflation to decelerate slowly as economy remains overheated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2025
Despite various challenges, the Kazakh economy has been performing well in recent years, and 2025 is expected to be another good year as economic growth is reportedly accelerating. Growth remains uneven, but strengthening of the services sector is an important trait of the Kazakh economy. The cou...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jun 2025
Jun 11 President: Kazakhstan is ready to supply Slovakia with oil, gas, and uranium. Jun 13 Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The US has expressed its willingness to cooperate with Kazakhstan in the field of critically important minerals. Jun 14 Atomic Energy Agency: Rosatom will lead the consortium f...
Kazakhstan macro: the economy reportedly accelerates, prompting forecast upgrades
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2025
The recently published macroeconomic statistics suggest that the Kazakh economy continued to expand steadily in 5M25, and its rate of growth has reportedly accelerated. One cannot rule out that a weaker tenge helped as the USD/KZT has traded above the 500 mark for several months. This has not onl...