KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Inflation y-o-y rises amid a slow deceleration m-o-m prompting no decisive action from the NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025
Inflationary pressure remains high as the Bureau of National Statistics reported inflation moved from 11.3% in May to 11.8% in June. However, it moderately decelerated last month to 0.8% m-o-m (versus 0.9% m-o-m in May and even higher numbers earlier this year). A year ago, inflation m-o-m was 0....
Kazakhstan macro: inflation to decelerate slowly as economy remains overheated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2025
Despite various challenges, the Kazakh economy has been performing well in recent years, and 2025 is expected to be another good year as economic growth is reportedly accelerating. Growth remains uneven, but strengthening of the services sector is an important trait of the Kazakh economy. The cou...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jun 2025
Jun 11 President: Kazakhstan is ready to supply Slovakia with oil, gas, and uranium. Jun 13 Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The US has expressed its willingness to cooperate with Kazakhstan in the field of critically important minerals. Jun 14 Atomic Energy Agency: Rosatom will lead the consortium f...
Kazakhstan macro: the economy reportedly accelerates, prompting forecast upgrades
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2025
The recently published macroeconomic statistics suggest that the Kazakh economy continued to expand steadily in 5M25, and its rate of growth has reportedly accelerated. One cannot rule out that a weaker tenge helped as the USD/KZT has traded above the 500 mark for several months. This has not onl...
Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ...
Kazakh services sector keeps booming amid the country’s growing importance as a transit hub
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M25, freight transportation output grew by 11.9% y-o-y. The passenger transportation segment grew by 10.5% y-o-y. Transportation combined with warehousing (an SNA category) was up by 23.1% y-o-y. The difference in growth rates of transportation ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
May 29 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has not yet decided on the parameters for issuing Eurobonds, and is waiting for the market situation to improve. Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market: Banks from Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe are considering entering the Kazakh mark...
Inflation fueled by credit remains elevated as it climbs y-o-y amid m-o-m moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025 · 1 response
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation rose to 11.3% y-o-y in May from 10.7% y-o-y in April. Even though it reached a "mere" 0.9% versus 1.2% in April m-o-m, inflation m-o-m appears higher than a year ago. Services prices grew in May by 16.0% y-o-y (up from 15.7% y-o-y in April...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2025
May 15 Tengizchevroil: The company increased oil production by 25% y-o-y in 1Q25. Oil transportation: The volume of oil transportation via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline decreased in 4M25 by 3% y-o-y Sanctions: The US has lifted a ban on previously imposed restrictions to provide services to CP...