KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: government considering reform agenda amid overspending and fiscal difficulties
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 31 Jan 2025 · 1 response
The Kazakh Ministry of Finance recently released the budgetary statistics for full-year 2024. The figures didn’t look impressive, either for the republican budget or the National Fund, because their revenues strongly depend on the exchange rate. Local budgets, however, performed very well because...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Jan 2025
Jan 10 UN: The organization expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, it expects 4.8% annual growth in 2025-2026. National railways: The cargo turnover of the national railway carrier (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy) grew by 1.1% y-o-y in 2024. Jan 14 NBK: Kazakhstan's international reserves decre...
Kazakhstan macro: The unexpectedly high rate of economic growth in 4Q24 is unlikely to persist in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jan 2025
In a few days, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance will publish budgetary statistics for the entire year 2024, but it looks as though spending soared in December. It already started accelerating in October-November. We mentioned earlier that apart from the generous budgetary stimulus, expanding hous...
NBK holds its base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025
The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...
Economic activity reportedly soared in December, albeit quite unexpectedly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics announced that in 2024, the short-term indicator (that takes into account activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications) soared to 6.2%. In 11M24, it was up by 5.6%, implying a rapid acceleration in December alone. Mea...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025
Dec 26 NBK: The regulator has approved a 5-year strategy for digitalization of the financial market regulation. Dec 28 President: Mr. Tokayev and the Russian President Mr. Putin had a telephone conversation and discussed the situation around the crash of an Azerbaijani plane near Aktau. Jan 3 Pre...
Kazakhstan macro: Fiscal Year 2025 may still be challenging despite the weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2024
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for various segments of the budgetary system, including extra-budgetary funds and the National Fund incorporated in the consolidated budget. The fiscal trends that we have regularly covered didn’t change much, apart f...
BI-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024
Dec 11 National Welfare Fund: Samruk-Kazyna intends to postpone the IPO of the national gas company QazaqGaz (initially planned for 2025) to create more attractive conditions for investors. Agriculture production: The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for Kazakh wheat expor...
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge is searching for equilibrium but the journey is not over yet
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Dec 2024
The Kazakh economy performed well in November, as the short-term indicator grew y-o-y by 5.6% in 11M24. Agriculture (up by 13.4%), construction (up by 10.3%), and retail sales (up by 9.3%) were the fastest-growing segments (all figures are y-o-y). Meanwhile, in November alone, retail sales increa...