KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Industrial production growth numbers remain high in 10M25, deceleration likely in 2026
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025
According to a recent publication by the Bureau of National Statistics, industrial production grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 10M25 (slightly down from 7.4% in 9M25). In October alone industrial production was up by 7.1% pointing to a gradual, albeit natural, deceleration. As usual, the official m-o-m do n...
Economic growth steadily remains above expectations
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Nov 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics officially announced that in 9M25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.3% as key segments performed unexpectedly well. The industry was up y-o-y by 7.3% (with mining delivering faster growth at 9.3% while manufacturing grew by 6.2%). Construction delivered 14.9% y-o-y grow...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Nov 2025 · 1 response
Nov 1 Prime-minister: Swiss Harvest Agro plans to invest more than $700 mln in the development of agriculture projects in Kazakhstan. Nov 2 OPEC+: Oil production by OPEC+ countries in 1Q26 may decrease moderately vs December level due to Kazakhstan's obligations to compensate for the significant ...
Kazakhstan macro: The recent strengthening of the tenge might not hold for long
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 Nov 2025
Recent macroeconomic data from the Bureau of Economic Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank show that while the current economic situation appears stable and economic growth exceeds expectations, the economy could be on the verge of changes due to some lingering macroeconomic...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Oct 2025
Oct 16 CPC: The company has transported slightly more than 54 mln tons (+10.7% y-o-y) of oil in 9M25. National pipeline company: KazTransOil and Transneft extend agreement on oil transit through Russia. CPC: Oil transportation via CPC in 2026 will be lower than in 2025 due to repairs and maintena...
Kazakhstan macro: recent economic and financial data suggest a coming slowdown in growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response
Our previous report highlighted that despite strong economic growth, several paradoxes have surfaced in the Kazakh economy, suggesting a potential slowdown amid inevitable economic policy changes. One such shift involves an evolving fiscal policy and a seemingly more cautious use of public funds....
Kazakhstan macro: Concerned about inflation, the NBK turns more radical
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Oct 2025
A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 bps to 18%. While a rate hike was anticipated, its magnitude exceeded expectations, as markets predicted a 50-to-100 bps increase. The NBK cited rising inflation as its primary concern, as it reached 12.9% y-o-y in Septem...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025
Oct 2 OPEC+: Kazakhstan's "debt" to compensate for the shortfall in OPEC+ production rose to 2.9 mln bpd, with “repayment” peaking in the 1H26. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is not yet meeting OPEC+ compensation schedules, but is making every effort. KMG: Kazakh oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ce...
Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...