KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: Fiscal Year 2025 may still be challenging despite the weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2024
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for various segments of the budgetary system, including extra-budgetary funds and the National Fund incorporated in the consolidated budget. The fiscal trends that we have regularly covered didn’t change much, apart f...
BI-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024
Dec 11 National Welfare Fund: Samruk-Kazyna intends to postpone the IPO of the national gas company QazaqGaz (initially planned for 2025) to create more attractive conditions for investors. Agriculture production: The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for Kazakh wheat expor...
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge is searching for equilibrium but the journey is not over yet
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Dec 2024
The Kazakh economy performed well in November, as the short-term indicator grew y-o-y by 5.6% in 11M24. Agriculture (up by 13.4%), construction (up by 10.3%), and retail sales (up by 9.3%) were the fastest-growing segments (all figures are y-o-y). Meanwhile, in November alone, retail sales increa...
Economic growth accelerated in November amid soaring government spending and credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics started publishing November monthly statistics and suggested that economic growth accelerated on a y-o-y basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly measure of aggregate economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communi...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024
Nov 27 President: Kazakhstan remains a reliable strategic partner and ally of Russia. Budget: The Parliament of Kazakhstan approved the law "On the Republican Budget for 2025-2027". The 2025 budget deficit is set at 2.7% of GDP, with a decrease in 2026-2027 to 2.2% and 1.9% of GDP, respectively. ...
Policy choice and monetary expansion behind the tenge’s recent unintended (albeit healthy) correction
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Dec 2024
Earlier this week, the Ministry of Finance published the 11M24 statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow and expenditures. The ministry mentioned that since the beginning of the year, the fund’s assets grew from KZT29.854 trln as of January 1 to KZT33.261 trln as of December 1. It means that...
Kazakhstan macro: Budget 2025 looks safer now with a weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Nov 2024
A couple of days ago, Majilis (the lower chamber of the Kazakh parliament) reportedly approved the updated version of the republican 2025 budget along with the indicative budgets for several following years. Legislators also amended the revenues and expenditures of the 2024 Kazakh republican budg...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2024
Nov 14 Energy Ministry: During the UN Climate Change conference COP29 in Baku, Kazakhstan signed a joint declaration targeting a three-fold increase in nuclear energy production by 2050. Prime Minister: The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Mr. Bektenov met with CEO of the Russian Nuclear Corporation ...
A too slow tenge’s weakening still holds tax revenues at bay
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2024
As the tenge hovered close to USD/KZT 500 in recent days (but didn’t cross this level) tax revenue flow, associated with the oil price and the exchange rate, remained unimpressive in October. From the fundamental point of view the tenge should have been at these levels (and even a bit weaker) a y...