KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: The recent strengthening of the tenge might not hold for long
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 Nov 2025
Recent macroeconomic data from the Bureau of Economic Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank show that while the current economic situation appears stable and economic growth exceeds expectations, the economy could be on the verge of changes due to some lingering macroeconomic...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Oct 2025
Oct 16 CPC: The company has transported slightly more than 54 mln tons (+10.7% y-o-y) of oil in 9M25. National pipeline company: KazTransOil and Transneft extend agreement on oil transit through Russia. CPC: Oil transportation via CPC in 2026 will be lower than in 2025 due to repairs and maintena...
Kazakhstan macro: recent economic and financial data suggest a coming slowdown in growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response
Our previous report highlighted that despite strong economic growth, several paradoxes have surfaced in the Kazakh economy, suggesting a potential slowdown amid inevitable economic policy changes. One such shift involves an evolving fiscal policy and a seemingly more cautious use of public funds....
Kazakhstan macro: Concerned about inflation, the NBK turns more radical
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Oct 2025
A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 bps to 18%. While a rate hike was anticipated, its magnitude exceeded expectations, as markets predicted a 50-to-100 bps increase. The NBK cited rising inflation as its primary concern, as it reached 12.9% y-o-y in Septem...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025
Oct 2 OPEC+: Kazakhstan's "debt" to compensate for the shortfall in OPEC+ production rose to 2.9 mln bpd, with “repayment” peaking in the 1H26. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is not yet meeting OPEC+ compensation schedules, but is making every effort. KMG: Kazakh oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ce...
Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
Sep 18 Mineral resources: In 4Q25, Canadian Laramide Resources will start exploratory drilling in southern Kazakhstan for uranium, REM and copper in 4Q25. Sep 22 Halyk Bank: The Bank will pay another $423.5 mln in dividends for 2024. KMG: The company and ExxonMobil have agreed to cooperate in the...
Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response
According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...
Tax collection gradually improves but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Sep 2025
The Ministry of Finance released 8M25 budget execution data for all levels of the nation’s budget system, including republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and extra-budgetary funds, which are now part of the consolidated budget statistics. Although tax collection showed some improvement...