KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Inflation likely to stay elevated in August prompting NBK to hold the base rate
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2025
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the weekly aggregate price index on socially essential goods (mainly basic foodstuffs) remained flat in the seven days ending on August 18. The MTD index remained at 0.1% on that day. It is not unusual to see some deflationary weeks during the harve...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025
Aug 7 Prime Minister: Kazakhstan plans to raise $24.2 bln in the next 5 years for the repair of utility networks. Aug 8 Government: Construction of the first nuclear power plant has started in Kazakhstan. Aug 11 NBK: Kazakhstan's gross international reserves increased by 0.8% in July to $113.041 ...
Budgetary amendments hint inflation to remain elevated in 2H25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025
As the Kazakh economy grows fast, budget revenues not related to the oil price (and the exchange rate) grew steadily in July, especially on the local level. In 7M25 local budgets accumulated 57.4% of the upwardly amended yearly revenues. The government amended expected local budget revenues by KZ...
Economic growth accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.2% y-o-y and in July economic growth accelerated as the Bureau also reported that in 7M25, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for economic activity that covers over 60% of total production of goods and servi...
Kazakhstan macro: the tenge needs to weaken further
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Aug 2025
In its most recent monthly statement on the FX market (published on August 1) the National Bank of Kazakhstan mentioned that trading activity increased last month and the tenge weakened by 4%. Total trade volume reached $5.7 bln, of which $0.7 bln was accounted for by FX sales from the National F...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025
Jul 24 KMG: Kazakhstan increased oil refining by 8.4% y-o-y in 1H25. Government: Turkish investors to build grain processing and fertilizer production plants in Kazakhstan for $610 mln. Jul 28 Asian Development Bank: The bank improved Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.1%, and t...
Inflation likely remains elevated for the rest of the year, prompting no rate cuts from NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation decelerated m-o-m from 0.8% in June to 0.7% in July. However, the y-o-y price index remained unchanged at 11.8%. Services prices grew y-o-y by 14.9% (down from 16.1% in June), food prices were up by 11.2% (up from 10.6% in June), and the n...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...
Kazakhstan macro: economy accelerates amid delayed budget spending
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Last week, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth continued to accelerate on a year-over-year basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly print of economic activity) grew by 9.0% in 1H25. In 5M25, it was up by 8.6% y-o-y, and in January alone, it grew by 4.5% only. This ...