KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: the economy reportedly accelerates, prompting forecast upgrades
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jun 2025
The recently published macroeconomic statistics suggest that the Kazakh economy continued to expand steadily in 5M25, and its rate of growth has reportedly accelerated. One cannot rule out that a weaker tenge helped as the USD/KZT has traded above the 500 mark for several months. This has not onl...
Economic growth looks strong in 5M25, and combined with elevated inflation support budget revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly flash estimate of economic activity that covers six key segments of the economy) grew y-o-y by 8.6% in 5M25 (up from 8.5% in 4M25). The number appears high, not least due to a more moderate economic growth a year ...
Kazakh services sector keeps booming amid the country’s growing importance as a transit hub
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M25, freight transportation output grew by 11.9% y-o-y. The passenger transportation segment grew by 10.5% y-o-y. Transportation combined with warehousing (an SNA category) was up by 23.1% y-o-y. The difference in growth rates of transportation ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
May 29 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has not yet decided on the parameters for issuing Eurobonds, and is waiting for the market situation to improve. Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market: Banks from Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe are considering entering the Kazakh mark...
Inflation fueled by credit remains elevated as it climbs y-o-y amid m-o-m moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jun 2025 · 1 response
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation rose to 11.3% y-o-y in May from 10.7% y-o-y in April. Even though it reached a "mere" 0.9% versus 1.2% in April m-o-m, inflation m-o-m appears higher than a year ago. Services prices grew in May by 16.0% y-o-y (up from 15.7% y-o-y in April...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2025
May 15 Tengizchevroil: The company increased oil production by 25% y-o-y in 1Q25. Oil transportation: The volume of oil transportation via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline decreased in 4M25 by 3% y-o-y Sanctions: The US has lifted a ban on previously imposed restrictions to provide services to CP...
Kazakhstan macro: economy doing well—but unclear how well
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 May 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth looked strong in 1Q25 and 4M25: in the former case, GDP grew by 5.6% y-o-y, and in the latter case, the short-term indicator was up y-o-y by 8.5% in 4M25 and 8.9% in April alone. The short-term indicator grew faster than GDP because ...
Budgets of various levels perform differently in 4M25 - subject to revenue sources
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 May 2025
As the Kazakh economy reportedly posted strong growth in 4M25, as the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity in six key sectors of the country’s economy) was up by 8.5% y-o-y, budget revenues in various segments of the budgetary system were reasonably strong. Meanwhile, a few ...
Economic growth in 4M25 looked strong y-o-y amid a low base effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 May 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communication segments) grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 4M25. To remind the m-o-m statistics are unavailable for t...