KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues grow YoY but not enough, prompting tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Mar 2025
We recently mentioned that the republican budget accumulated about 15.1% of annually planned tax revenues in 2M25, which looks like an improvement compared with January, when the authorities collected only 5.1% of the annual plan. However, things still don’t look very reassuring as some taxes are...
Revenue collection improves in 2M25, but more improvement is required
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Mar 2025
The Ministry of Finance published February budget statistics, and the numbers looked comparatively better than in 2M24. However, more action is required to avoid unnecessary FX interventions associated with various schemes to raise additional revenues. As in 2M25, the USD/KZT was close to 515, wh...
Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025
Mar 6 President: Mr. Tokayev held a phone conversation with the Russian President, Mr. Putin, and discussed the implementation of joint trade and energy projects and economic relations in general. Mar 7 NBK: The Bank hiked the base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%. National pipeline company: Kazakh oil ...
Growth reportedly soared in February – economic surprise or statistical puzzle?
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Mar 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported in February that the short-term indicator (that captures activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation/warehousing, communications, and trade) soared as in 2M25, it grew by 7.3% y-o-y. In January, it was up by 4.5 y-o-y, followed by a s...
Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Mar 2025
Feb 19 KMG: The company and Hungarian MOL group (Multinational Oil and Gas) will discuss further details and conditions of testing supplies of Kazakh oil to Hungary. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakh diplomats will discuss the attack on CPC with Ukraine. National railways: China will invest CNY...
Kazakhstan macro: gradually increasing trade with Europe to remain an important GDP driver
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Mar 2025
A few weeks ago, we briefly broached the evolution of the 2024 aggregate structure of Kazakhstan's balance of payments and some issues related to the recent volatility of the tenge. In this report, we concentrate on some details of foreign trade statistics that provide additional color on economi...
Inflation accelerates, base rate hike is likely in March
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Mar 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, inflation m-o-m accelerated to 1.5% (versus 1.1% m-o-m in January). The y-o-y tally climbed to 9.4% (versus 8.9% in January). Prices rose across the board – for services, food, or non-food items. The latter implies that the main reason ...
Kazakhstan macro: Various factors are pushing the tenge off equilibrium again
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Feb 2025 · 1 response
In our previous reports, we have repeatedly mentioned that an excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the poor flow of the exchange rate-related taxes on various levels of the country’s budgetary system, including the National Fund. As the tenge weakened in December and remained ...
Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025
Feb 6 Prime minister: Kazakhstan gives priority to localization of production and technology transfer when choosing vendors for nuclear power plant construction. Feb 7 Fitch: The agency confirms the QazaqGaz rating at BB+ with a "stable" outlook. NBK: Demand for gold bars from private individuals...