Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief Economist

Recent Country Insights

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jul 2024

June 27 President: A referendum on the nuclear power plant construction in Kazakhstan will be held in autumn 2024. S&P: The agency has upgraded the rating of Kazakhstan Kaspi Bank from BB to BB+, with a stable outlook. June 28 KASE: The stock exchange plans to hold talks with the Moscow Exchange ...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary spending slows; the strong tenge is dragging on tax revenue
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2024

In the past week, the KZT weakened from the awkwardly strong levels seen since 4Q23 and reached USD/KZT466 a couple of days ago, having retreated from about USD/KZT440 seen in early May. We have repeatedly mentioned that the long-lasting stability of the nominal exchange rate amid persistently hi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

Jun 12 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will fulfil its June obligations to OPEC+. It will compensate for the accumulated overproduction of oil by the end of Sep 2025. President: Mr. Tokayev supported South Korea's proposal to hold a summit in Seoul next year in the format of 'Central Asia + Korea.' T...

Economic growth decelerates in May: more evidence
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics continued to publish its May economic statistics, and the most recent revelations confirm that the country’s economic growth gradually decelerates, albeit from high 2023 numbers, so that the 2023 growth looks not too bad. Today, the Bureau announced that in 5M24,...

Kazakhstan economic growth moderates amid evolving foreign trade
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M24, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy measure of the overall economic activity) grew by 3.7% y-o-y, i.e., down from 3.9%, 4.7%, 5.2% y-o-y in 4M24, 1Q24, and 2M24. In 2023, it grew by 5.1%. Even though not a complete set of monthly econ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2024

May 30 Fitch: The agency has retained Bereke Bank's BB rating with a negative forecast. May 31 Ministry of Transport: EU has lifted all restrictions on flights to the EU countries from Kazakhstan. NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of NBK has cut the base rate by 25 bps to 14.5%. Eurasian Economi...

Kazakhstan macro: no threat to the budget despite insufficient tax revenue flow
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Jun 2024

Recent developments in Kazakhstan show that the country’s economy continues to grow at a decent pace, albeit with a slight deceleration, which is natural after last year’s overheating. Inflation decelerated in May to 0.4% m-o-m (versus 0.6% m-o-m in April), and this could have resulted (at least ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 May 2024

May 16 President: Kazakhstan and China have the potential to increase annual trade turnover between the two countries by a factor of 2.5 compared to 2023, i.e., up to $100 bln. Oil transit: Oil pumped through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in Jan-Apr 2024 amounted to 9.6 mln tons, from which 19...

Same old story in April: a too strong tenge suppresses tax collection in 4Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance published the 4M24 budgetary statistics and it appears that the situation looks largely the same as in 2023. An excessively strong tenge (USD/KZT 443 at the time of writing) curtails the tax revenue collection. In the case of the republican budget (the core constituency in...

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