MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Politics: USMCA review and the 2027 midterm elections are key to defining Sheinbaum’s second year in office
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2025
Last week we presented an initial balance sheet of the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in terms of economic performance and social indicators. In this issue of the Political Outlook, we will consider the main political issues, their ramifications and possible scenarios for ...
Economics: Further evidence of weaker activity according to September data
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2025
Economic indicators released in September confirmed a slowing economy. Inegi’s industrial activity report for July shows the sector’s most pronounced contraction since October 2024, potentially setting the stage for a negative full-year contribution to GDP. Thus, chances for 2025 GDP growth would...
Economics: The initiative to raise tariffs on 1,463 products will lead to increased costs and a loss of competitiveness in some sectors
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2025
On September 9, one day after the Economic Package was presented, the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) sent an initiative to modify the General Law on Import and Export Taxes (LIGIE). The initiative seeks to increase tariffs on 1,463 items by between 10% and up to 50% for the period from January to Dec...
Politics: Sheinbaum’s first year in office: a balance sheet of achievements and contradictions
MEXICO · Report · 29 Sep 2025
On October 1, Claudia Sheinbaum will have been in office for the first 12 months of her six-year presidency. President Sheinbaum is riding high, with opinion polls putting her approval ratings at between 60% and 80%. The achievements on some fronts have been real: a reduction in poverty and a ...
Politics: The 2026 Budget Proposal advances but is too subordinated to political considerations
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025
In the 2026 Budget Proposal (PPEF), total net public expenditure for the fiscal year is projected to increase a real 5.9%. Despite the declared need to reduce the fiscal deficit, social spending in politically oriented programs will receive a massive injection of resourses. This reflects the gove...
Economics: Public investment outlook for 2026
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025
The 2026 Expenditure Budget Proposal (PPEF) anticipates a slight recovery in public investment following a deep contraction in 2025. Physical investment could increase by nearly 10% in real terms (from 888.9 billion to 975.5 billion pesos, ((US$48.30 billion to US$53 billion)), while investment i...
Politics: Scandal puts massive and new forms of fuel theft back in focus
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025
A new chapter has opened in the saga of Mexico’s history with massive fuel theft. The issue had been before the public for quite some time, when fuel theft, known as huachicol, was considered to be limited to siphoning off massive quantities of gasoline at Pemex pipelines around the country. But ...
Economics: A first glance at the 2026 Economic Package sent to Congress on September 8
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2025 · 1 response
On Monday, September 8, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) sent the 2026 Economic Package to Congress. It includes the government’s forecasts for the country’s macroeconomic outlook, as well as proposals of revenue, expenditures, and the public sector fiscal deficit, which includes ...
Economics: Employment stagnates in the second quarter and July 2025
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2025 · 1 response
According to the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE), for the second quarter of 2025 and July, the growth in job numbers indicates a clear slowdown that began last year, consistent with the overall weakening of the economy. The employed population experienced a weak annual increase, ...