MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdes
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National SecurityDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Economic and political regime change modifies the balance of risks in the medium-to-long term
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
Amid a wave of fresh constitutional reforms, some already approved and others progressing at a fast clip, the arrival of the new president and Federal Congress marks a shift in the country's economic-political regime—a shift that defines a balance of risks and opportunities that are quite differe...
Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in th...
Economics: Afores (private pension funds) could be the next source for financing the growing public deficit
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024
Public finances have continually weakened, especially in the past three years, with ever-increasing public deficits. For 2024, it is estimated that the public deficit will close at nearly 6% of GDP. The factors underpinning this forecast are that the federal government accelerated its spending to...
Politics: Judicial reform advances but conflicts continue, with major potential consequences
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024
Morena and AMLO’s much touted judicial reform has passed the legislative procedural hurdles, and the National Electoral Institute (INE) has agreed to organize the election of judges, justices, magistrates, with the first election slated for next June. However, the fight is far from over, and the ...
Economics: Business confidence in the Mexican economy weakens in recent months
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2024
Business confidence has been weakening in recent months. According to Inegi’s Monthly Survey of Business Opinion, as of September 2024 the overall business confidence indicator stood at 50.9 points (the maximum is 100), a level 5.5 points lower than in the same month of the previous year and whic...
Politics: The Sheinbaum Presidency—first positions and implications
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2024
There were no big surprises in Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day in office and her two inauguration day speeches. Everything points to a continuation of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s social programs (a central axis of his and Morena’s so-called "Fourth Transformation"), ideology, a...
Politics: New Morena leadership, with Sheinbaum increasingly fenced in by AMLO and a highly disparate party
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2024
A week ago, 3,000 delegates to a Morena party congress were called upon to raise their hands to endorse a new national executive committee, whose composition the national leadership only read out immediately before the seemingly unanimous vote. The new leadership is heavily stacked with AMLO loya...
Economics: The Mexican economy continues to lose steam; Banxico lowers the reference rate by 25 bp
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2024
Indicators published over the course of September have shown the Mexican economy accentuating its slowdown. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere +0.6% in July, as did manufacturing, while that of aggregate supply and demand sputtered to just shy of a single percentage point in the second q...
Economics: Aggregate demand figures show 2Q deepening of deceleration amid weakened private consumption of services, public investment
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2024
Last Wednesday, Inegi published aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter of 2024, showing an increase in demand (equal to supply) of 0.9% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That marked a deceleration with respect to the increases reported for the first quarter (2.4% yoy), and...