MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdes
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National SecurityDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Balance of risks skewed to the upside
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024
The balance of economic risks for next year is skewed to the upside. Several of the risks anticipated in previous months have materialized. Among them are an institutional weakening, fiscal deterioration, lower business confidence to invest in Mexico, and threats to trade and the external economy...
Politics: As challenges grow and the economy weakens, Sheinbaum is at a crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024
While Claudia Sheinbaum is basking in high approval ratings, signs point to potential problems ahead that could spell trouble. In her first 100 days in office, the new President has concentrated on getting legislative approval for AMLO’s constitutional amendments, chief among them the Judicial...
Economics: 3Q and October employment numbers reveal deep downturn
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2024
Employment numbers at the third quarter and October of this year continue reflecting the downturn that began in the second quarter, in line with the economic growth posted in the same period. Wages have experienced a very slight downturn, also since the second quarter, but continue to grow at rel...
Politics: Opposition parties elect new leaderships in bid to reverse falling fortunes
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2024
Mexico’s opposition parties are in serious trouble on all levels following their disastrous performance in the June national elections. All are attempting to come to grips with their rejection by broad sections of the population –they only have the support of 15% of the electorate- promising int...
Economics: Questions raised about the feasibility of strategic plans for the energy sector
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024
The strategic plans presented by the Federal Government for both Pemex and CFE are insufficient to deal with the structural challenges they face. Pemex is plagued by significant accumulated losses caused by segments such as its Transformación Industrial subsidiary, for which no specific measures ...
Politics: Sheinbaum moves to address Trump’s threats to Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024
Even before taking office, US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies toward Mexico indicate a hard-core stance that could potentially inflict considerable harm on the country’s economy. While not coming as a surprise given his past performance and the promises made to his base during the recent ...
Politics: Constitutional reforms pose a direct threat to democratic governance
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024
Barely two months into Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, it is clear that Morena and its coalition partners are determined to move full speed ahead with the 4T's proposed constitutional reforms, actively backed by the new president. Taken as a whole, the 20 reforms proposed by AMLO (18 constitu...
Economics: Indicators point to further slowdown, as anticipated
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024
Indicators were released during November that point to a more pronounced slowdown at the end of this year. Gross fixed capital formation fell an annual 0.9% in August, the first decline since February 2021, with construction experiencing a notable decrease. Industrial production remained weak in ...
Economics: Analysis of the recent evolution of the public finances and the main implications of the 2025 Economic Package
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2024
On November 15, the Ministry of Finance presented the Economic Package for next year, which includes the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2025 (CGPE) as well as the proposed Revenue Law and the Federal Expenditure Budget. In our opinion, the most important aspect of this package is the applic...