MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: First quarter public finances surprisingly favorable yet unsustainable for the rest of the year, with scant room to contain spending
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2025
Mexico's public finances delivered favorable results in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a substantial increase in non-oil tax revenues (real annual +17.8%) and a contraction in public spending (real annual -5.9%), a performance facilitated by calendar effects. But despite such a positive sho...
Politics: The current state of democracy in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2025
There is rising concern in Mexico that the country’s democracy is in danger. The current debate was sparked by a magazine article and interview granted by Ernesto Zedillo in which the former president declared that Mexican democracy is dead and that the country is moving toward an authoritarian a...
Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross Fixed Investment falls in February for sixth consecutive month
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 May 2025
Gross Fixed Investment in February: Sixth consecutive annual decline due to sharp contraction in construction investment and recent drop in M&E Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -6.0% YoY in February, continuing the negative trend that began in the second half of the previous year and ma...
Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption in February posts a third consecutive annual decline
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 May 2025
Private consumption through February: Third consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, alongside persistent weakness in spending on domestic goods. Private consumption fell by -0.7% YoY in February 2025, marking the third consecutive decline after a slow...
Economics: Trouble ahead despite some marginal upticks in the 1Q preliminary GDP report
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025
While last week’s preliminary GDP report for the first quarter may have marginally surpassed some expectations, its scant improvement appears to mask deeper economic problems. Robust numbers for January allowed the agricultural sector to deliver most of the economic growth last quarter, as indust...
Politics: Telecommunications reform poses the risk of an economic and political step backward
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025
A new telecommunications bill has sparked an uproar over the issue of censorship and freedom of expression in relation to the media. The proposed legislation replaces the Telecommunications Law approved in 2013 during Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. While many of Peña Nieto’s policies have s...
Public finances appear solid in Q1, but a detailed examination reveals their fragility going forward.
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 May 2025
As of March, the fiscal deficit declined sharply. Revenues increased significantly and spending remained on a downward trend, although more moderately. Notwithstanding it is unlikely the annual fiscal targets will be met. In the first quarter of 2025, public finances showed significant improvemen...
Mexico Macro Monitor: Pemex Q1 2025: Financial Results and Oil&Gas Production Decline Continues; Marginal Improvement in Refining
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 May 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, Pemex reported mixed operational results. On one hand, liquid hydrocarbon production fell by 11.3% compared to the same period in 2024, natural gas output declined by 8.7%, and crude oil exports dropped by 22.8%. On the other hand, the refining segment showed modest ...
Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025
Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening services According to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point...