MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Demand-side components (consumption and investment) are consistent with first-quarter GDP stagnation
MEXICO · Report · 19 May 2026
Mexico's economy entered 2026 on a weak footing, with first-quarter GDP virtually stagnant at 0.2% year-on-year growth. While the government has attributed the poor performance primarily to external factors, the data point to significant domestic demand weaknesses running alongside sectoral disru...
Politics: The 4T's education disaster laid bare
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2026
Mexico's education system has suffered a marked deterioration under the administrations of López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum. A recent incident encapsulates the broader dysfunction: Education Secretary Mario Delgado announced the abrupt early end of the 2025–2026 school year, claiming unanimou...
Politics: Key legislative takeaways from the Congressional period that ended on April 30
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026
The congressional session that concluded on April 30 was one of the least productive in recent memory, despite Morena holding a legislative supermajority. Three bills stood out among the 61 approved across both chambers. The first is the electoral reform. The bill that was ultimately passed bo...
Economics: Poor Q1 public finance figures; Pemex remains a persistent burden
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, public finances deteriorated, casting serious doubt on whether a genuine "fiscal consolidation" process is actually underway this year — that is, whether a meaningful reduction in fiscal deficits, and in particular in the Broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (P...
Politics: The U.S. requests the extradition of Morena politicians, including sitting Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya
MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2026 · 1 response
On April 28th, the U.S. Department of Justice submitted an extradition request for Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current and former state officials on charges of drug trafficking conspiracy, narcotics distribution, and firearms offenses in connection with the Sinaloa Cartel. Th...
Economics: Mexico's economy facing stagnant growth, persistent inflation, and mounting fiscal risks
MEXICO · Report · 04 May 2026
Figures released in April 2026 depict a Mexican economy under stress. Economic activity weakened, with GDP virtually stagnant at 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026 — a sharp deceleration from 1.8% YoY in Q4 2025 — as industry contracted and services lost momentum. Private consumption growth, although positive, ...
Economics: As inflation persists, expanded price controls loom as a threat
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2026
The overall inflation rate for the first half of April (4.53%) was virtually unchanged from March (4.55%), while core inflation declined by 0.17 percentage points, falling from 4.44% to 4.27%. Although both indicators show a modest reduction, it is worth highlighting that core inflation has been...
Politics: Changes in Morena and the INE imply costs for the future of Mexican democracy
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2026
Recent weeks have brought significant political changes in Mexico that carry far-reaching implications for both democratic governance and electoral competition. Within Morena, President Claudia Sheinbaum has orchestrated a leadership reshuffle that effectively tightens her grip on the ruling part...
Economics: The 2027 General Pre-Criteria for Economic Policy shows excessive optimism and disconnect from Mexico’s reality
MEXICO · Report · 20 Apr 2026
At the beginning of the month, the SHCP sent the General Pre-Criteria for Economic Policy for 2027 (PCGPE) to the Congress of the Union. These documents constitute the first step in the budget preparation process for the coming year and include an update of the macroeconomic framework and the exp...