MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Politics: Highly questioned Judicial Reform validation—prelude to a more opaque election model?
MEXICO · Report · 25 Aug 2025
The June 2 Judicial Election was questioned from the word go. It was criticized as a logistical nightmare with voters having to decide between hundreds of unknown candidates, with severely restricted limits on campaigning, and perhaps most importantly, the danger that the public electing the judi...
Economics: A new strategic plan and a T-bill backed financing mechanism are the latest efforts to rescue an inwardly focused Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2025
A new financing mechanism for Pemex was announced at the end of July. Although it involves taking on more debt, those liabilities are to be recorded off-balance sheet and could be implemented once again in the near future. It was unveiled not long before Pemex announced its "Strategic Plan 2025-2...
Politics: Unethical practices and luxury lifestyles spark crisis in Morena, calling into question its very identity
MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2025
A large part of the appeal of the Fourth Transformation (4T) and Claudia Sheinbaum (and before her, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador) has been its repeated message that it alone has taken the moral high ground in a country whose political system is riddled with corruption and assorted ills, with the r...
Economics: ENIGH 2024—higher labor income and government transfers; less targeting and effectiveness of social spending
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2025
The results of the 2024 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGH) show significant increases in current household income across all deciles, due to growth in labor income and government transfers. As we have noted in previous reports, both the increase in the minimum wage and t...
Politics: Upcoming electoral reform—another significant blow to Mexican democracy
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2025
The final step in AMLO's "Plan C", aimed at guaranteeing the ruling party the 2/3 qualified majority needed to modify the Constitution and thereby avoid the legislative or judicial branch's nullifying the 4T’s policies, is about to be concretized in the form of the Electoral Reform. On August 3 ...
Economics: The latest public finance results are favorable but insufficient to halt debt growth as Pemex continues to deteriorate financially
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025
The evolution of public finances in the first half of 2025 and Pemex’s recently released operating results for the second quarter of 2025 point to a complex outlook for macroeconomic stability and the Mexican economy’s medium-term prospects. Government finances continued to deliver favorable resu...
Politics: Scandal puts ties between politicians and organized crime under the spotlight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2025
A major scandal has erupted in Mexico with far-reaching short, medium, and long-term consequences. On July 12, General Miguel Ángel Martínez revealed that there is an outstanding arrest warrant for Hernán Bermúdez Requena, former Secretary of Public Security of Tabasco. He is charged with crimina...
Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated h...
Economics: The data released in July shows the economy remains stagnant
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The IGAE for May showed a 0.4% yoy uptick but on average, from January to May 2025, the Mexican economy showed no growth. The public finance report for that same month shows some apparent strength thanks to robust income tax and VAT collections alongside spending and debt reductions. However, the...