MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Public finance results in May show some positive results but not enough to forego a further deterioration
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025
Some public finance results for May showed positive figures, but not many are expected to endure. The fiscal deficit was lowered a real -47% yoy thanks to an increase in budgetary revenues, especially robust VAT and income tax collections. However, depressed excise tax collections and oil-related...
Politics: Initiatives and recently approved laws represent a worrying setback for freedom of expression and citizens' privacy
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025
Is Mexico advancing, slowly or otherwise, toward an authoritarian state? Many critics of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government think so, and several recent developments would appear to validate such fears. For argument's sake, such developments could be attributable to some overzealous officials or chal...
Economics: Activity figures published in June point to stagnation for the rest of 2025
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2025
Following May’s report showing that Q1 GDP edged up only around half a point in the first quarter, this past month’s aggregate supply and demand results filled out the picture as it showed a 25% drop in public investment, private investment turning sharply negative and consumption weakening consi...
Politics: Recently approved bills raise the specter of weakened civil liberties
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2025
The priority of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has been to consolidate her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s "Plan C", of obtaining and using an automatic two-thirds majority in congress to be able to pass legislation as well as amend the constitution in order to permanently...
Politics: The concentration of power and populism in the 4T have resulted in little effectiveness in economic development and security
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2025
In her nine months in office, Claudia Sheinbaum’s priorities have been aimed at a) concretizing AMLO’s “Plan C” of enshrining the 4T’s policies in the constitution, thereby altering the country’s political regime and further concentrating power in the presidency and b) limiting the damage caused ...
Economics: Mexican economy expected to stall further this year but could begin to see some minimal growth heading into 2026
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2025
What are the factors behind Mexico's ongoing economic slowdown? Can a strong peso endure? Will there be a satisfactory ending to free trade and foreign investment in Mexico? Those are a few of the questions we attempt to answer in this week’s Economic Outlook as we summarize our macroeconomic fra...
Economics: Latest aggregate demand figures reflect contraction in several areas of the Mexican economy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2025
On Wednesday, June 18, aggregate demand and supply figures for the first quarter of 2025 were released showing that aggregate demand (equal to supply) contracted an annual -0.1% based on original figures. That slippage came mainly in response to a significant drop in gross fixed capital formation...
Politics: Tension on multiple fronts marks US-Mexican relations
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2025
US-Mexican relations, while always having their ups and downs, are today marked by considerable tensions. Such tensions have been exacerbated in recent weeks due to Washington’s aggressiveness on three fronts. The first is immigration, with intensified ICE raids across the United States, a corres...
Economics: Rising consumer inflation driven by PPI, combined with discordant monetary policy, make for a complex scenario
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jun 2025
Annual inflation in Mexico reached 4.42% in May 2025, with core inflation propelled to 4.06% by rising merchandise and services prices. At the same time, the non-core component increased 5.34% annually, driven especially by meat products (8.25%). Yet despite rising inflation, Banxico has lowered ...